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Selective AmnesiaLittle kids do it all the time. Somehow they “forget” what you told them not to do hours before. Husbands somehow fail to hear their wives say: “Take out the garbage...

Fantasy Football: Conquer Selective Amnesia

by Buddy Smith (Senior Writer)

99

28112 reads

Sports

October 26, 2008


Selective Amnesia

Little kids do it all the time. Somehow they “forget” what you told them not to do hours before. Husbands somehow fail to hear their wives say: “Take out the garbage.” Girlfriends don’t recall that Wednesday night is poker night. Every week.

Our minds are slaves to our desires, and we choose to remember things better when it suits us. We all have the desire to think of ourselves as above average in all things, when that can’t possibly be the case.

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
                                                   George Santayana

When our minds erase information that lowers our self-esteem, we cripple our ability to improve our skills. How can we learn from experience if we can’t trust our memory of events?



When it comes to decision-making, our minds tend to give us too much credit for things that go right, while we bear almost none of the blame for things that go wrong. While I focus on how you can improve your fantasy football decisions in this article, the same theory applies to other aspects of life.


Delusions of Grandeur

We tend to think too much of our impact on random events. From knocking on wood to lucky shirts, people feel the need to control life. When extremely good things happen to us, we tend to think we are solely responsible for our glory.

For instance: If you have Kurt Warner on your team, you are nowhere near as smart as you think you are. Greg Jennings was not a lock to outscore Randy Moss this year. Random things happened, and we are where we are. Don’t pat yourself on the back so much.

The human mind is a funny thing: Once we know something, it’s hard to imagine a world where it was unknown. People used to think the world was flat and the center of the universe. Now we know better, and it’s hard to imagine a time where this information didn’t exist.

Once we saw Tom Brady’s record-breaking year, it was hard to call it anything other than inevitable. Where are all the people who were talking about Randy Moss becoming a cancer on the team?

Where are all the people who thought the Green Bay Packers’ offense couldn’t function without Brett Favre?

It’s not only good results that we process poorly, negative outcomes are misinterpreted by our brains as well.

Cry Me A River!

When we lose fantasy games, we are keenly aware of all the outside factors that contributed to our defeat. Our star player got injured. We didn’t have enough time to prepare for the draft, and who could have predicted that the Cardinals would be doing so well anyway?

We just got unlucky. It wasn’t our fault, and we couldn’t have possibly foreseen what happened. Do any of these statements sound familiar?

 



Author Poll

To what do you attribute your most recent Fantasy Football loss?

  • Bad Luck
  • Key Injuries
  • Too Busy at Work
  • It Was My Fault!
vote to see results
Author Poll Results

To what do you attribute your most recent Fantasy Football loss?

  • Bad Luck

    45.9%

  • Key Injuries

    30.3%

  • Too Busy at Work

    2.0%

  • It Was My Fault!

    21.7%
  • Total votes: 1743
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99 comments Last one added 8 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. Sean Gerski 8 months ago

    This was a waste of my time.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Well, imagine if you had wrote it.

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    • Anthony Elias 8 months ago

      well if reading it was a waste of your time, how stupid could you be to waste even more time by taking the time to comment?

      buddy, great article. I love the tone of the article, and it is a very interesting point.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Anthony you'd be surprised how many people make that mistake. Have you ever noticed how many haters never write articles?

      I guess they are too busy urinating in the world's Cheerios to actually create something of their own. What's worse is they uneducated fools can't even articulate what they didn't like or didn't agree with. Life must be tough with a 400 word vocabulary.

      Alas...

      Anyway, thanks for your supportive comments.

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    • Brad Webster 8 months ago

      He's entitled to his opinion and he's entitled to be honest about his feedback.

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    • r or 8 months ago

      i agree

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    • Bob Cunningham 8 months ago

      URINATING IN THE WORLD'S CHEERIOS?!?!? hahahahahaha good stuff.

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  2. Sean Gerski 8 months ago

    You win. It was a bigger waste of your time.

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  3. bob barker 8 months ago

    With Frank Gore on bye i will be running a flex set for the first time but im unsure what three wr's to start Steve Breaston, Donnie Avery, Andre Johnson, Terrell Owens thats the corps im working with. do you have any advice ?

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  4. Jesse Swain 8 months ago

    neat article

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Thanks for the kind words.

      You'd be surprised how many people create profiles just so they can bash other people's work. It's nice to see people who are willing to take the time to put positive energy into the universe.

      Thanks again.

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  5. Dexter Rutecki 8 months ago

    This was absolutely a terrible read. I may be dumber after reading this article.

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  6. ASoIaF 8 months ago

    Interesting article - psychological theorists have been on to this for awhile. It's called "Fundamental Attribution Error".

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      I've heard of that also, and should have mentioned it in the piece. I love taking business and science theories and bringing them to people in a package that they will read about: Fantasy Football.

      People hate math class, but love it when I show them how to use math to win games.

      Thanks for your input.

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  7. Mark Hicks 8 months ago

    Very interesting article. As a fantasy football commissioner for the last 8 years, it's funny how many times owners call me over-thinking their lineup instead of going with their "gut " feeling. Fantasy football is 95% luck and 5% skill but if a owner is smart enough, they can figure out some of these player's tendencies that will aid them in their weekly lineup decisions. Although I'm not 100% in agreement, your article is concise and you make a great argument that can be debated either way.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Thanks for your comment,

      I only wish to make people aware of the "tendencies" of the human mind. "You can't change what you don't acknowledge." -Dr. Phil

      Good luck in the rest of your season.

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  8. David Margulies 8 months ago

    Nice article. But seriously, starting Ronnie Brown the day he had 5 touchdowns was pure genious on my part. Seriously. I'll give your method a try and see how I do. Thanks.

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  9. Jason Lawrence 8 months ago

    Thank you Ann Landers. I am now dumber for reading this article.

    Signed,

    Defensive Indifference

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  10. Eddie Rossell 8 months ago

    nice article Buddy
    I play fantasy but dont really keep up with it, at least not this year. But as I read this I realized how much i did thiese things when I was paying attention to my leagues.
    good read.

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  11. Sean Gerski 8 months ago

    Buddy wrote: "What's worse is they uneducated fools can't even articulate what they didn't like or didn't agree with."
    As the editor of a newspaper, I do not need to write articles for free on a web site to validate myself. But, if I did, and if someone replied that they did not like the article, I would not write a reply slighting "uneducated fools" using broken English. If it makes you feel better to have people rubber stamp "nice article" in the reply forum, then good for you. If you can't take criticism, don't write in a public forum.
    If you were as professional as you seem to think you are, you would not feel the need to respond to each and every response you get. Let your work speak for itself.

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    • Brad Webster 8 months ago

      I'm not taking sides, but that was a well-written response, Sean. I thought (and hope) Buddy was using sarcasm when he said the words you sited.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Well dude,

      Fantasy football is a game, and thus a waste of time on it's face. You chose to be one of the first people to read an obscure article written by a non-expert about a silly game. I submit that wasting time was your goal, and I've helped you achieve that goal. You should be thanking me.

      Since you're not thanking me, you must have really wanted to learn something about your chosen pass time. You bothered to call the waste of time a waste of time, that tells me two things:

      1. You didn't learn anything.
      2. You have a lot of time. (The editing gig must be very easy, very boring, or both.)

      You didn't learn anything, giving us three possibilities:

      1. You already knew how to conquer selective amnesia, and I was preaching to the choir.
      2. You missed the point entirely. The concept just went over your head.
      3. You disagree that human beings tend to make these types of mistakes.

      It takes a special kind of arrogance to assume that everyone knows what you know, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and rule out number one.

      You're never going to admit to number two even if it were the case, so we can ignore that one as well.

      That leaves number three: you disagree with the premise. If that's the case I invite you to say so and state your reasons.

      If you're unwilling to actually talk about what you didn't like, your comment has as much value as the rubber stamp "nice article" that you abhor. You've just given a mean spirited rubber stamp. Congratulations!

      Why not spend time trying to help people out instead of calling them out? I'm sure you're an editor for one of the finest small town newspapers in the country. With all that knowledge you've acquired cleaning up the punctuation on stories about lost cats, you could choose to give reasoned professional analysis. Instead you choose unimaginative negativity.

      I may have written a boring article, but you're just not a cool guy. Which problem do you think is easier to fix?

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    • Sean Gerski 8 months ago

      Since saying something is a waste of time is a subjective opinion, that doesn't necessarily mean the article was poorly written. It means that I felt, after reading it, that it was a waste of my time. Ergo, it was not necessary for me to provide to you examples of why I felt it was a waste of my time.
      I could read a story about something that does not interest me, such as a story about a lost cat, and that would be a waste of my time. However, your article, on the face of it, is about something with which I am interested.
      Your article came up on Google search because you included one of my search words. I proceeded to read it, only to discover it to be claptrap. My opinion of your article was short and to the point. I sincerely believe that had I broken down what I did not like about your article, you also would have taken offense to that, only moreso. It is obvious from looking at your other articles that you feel the need to respond to every reply made to what you have written. That is an unfortunate way to exist. It takes a certain amount of bravery to write something and then to place it where it can be read by anyone. That bravery is severly tempered, however, when the writer hunches vulture-like over the keyboard, ready to defend his every word.
      A confident, professional writer will publish, then move on; pausing only to correct errors.
      I get paid to write and edit stories. And I have won my fair share of awards for doing so. And I enjoy doing it as a profession. But I do not do it on a volunteer basis. I replied to your story with how I felt after reading it. I had neither the time, nor the inclination to edit your story.
      Had you ignored my comment, it would have fallen by the wayside. Other repliers would have agreed or disagreed, but that would have been the end of it. Had you contacted me through my page, and wrote something akin to, "I'm sorry you felt my article was a waste of time. What would have made it better?," then I would have been impressed and taken the time to explain anything you wanted.
      As is, I have spent far more time on this than I wanted to. I received several e-mails from the site informing me you had responded to my posts. I turned that notice off, only to be contacted by a friend of yours who basically told me not to write anything negative.
      You said what you wrote was "an obscure article written by a non-expert about a silly game." Maybe you should remember that and act accordingly in the future.
      I said your arcticle was a waste of time. In turn, you chose to deride me as a person, and to insult my intelligence and my profession. I think you could teach your friend a thing or two about being negative.

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    • Angel Navedo 8 months ago

      People that write the word "Ergo" are usually pompous.

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  12. Brad Webster 8 months ago

    Pick 2 to start at RB; Mewelde Moore, McFadden, Ray Rice.

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  13. Michoel Botwinick 8 months ago

    I don't believe it!!

    Not once have I ever seen before this amount of hate messages directed towards one article before on B/R -- and all by people who have never written an article! this is not YouTube, can't we please just stop the hating?

    Great article, Sean!

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  14. Josh Gamiere 8 months ago

    quite interesting article

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  15. Jonathan Lintner 8 months ago

    It's good writing. Ignore the haters.

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  1. Buddy Smith 8 months ago

    Mewelde Moore and McFadden if he's playing. I'd rather go Pierre Thomas if that's at all possible. I don't think you can start Rice unless both McGahee and McLain are hurt. Even so it's not an offense that you want to hang your hat on.

    BTW I am so not kidding about dudes like Sean. While we're all entitled to our opinions, we've also heard the saying "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all."

    While he has the right to be negative, I reserve the right to call his comment what it was: impolite.

    Thanks for reading, and I hope I've helped you out.

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  2. Michoel Botwinick 8 months ago

    Oops, I mean:

    Great article, Buddy!

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  3. cody cunningham 8 months ago

    Seriously, Buddy do you reply to each and every post? Do you really have nothing better to do? When someone doesn't like your work you get defensive and argue it. Maybe, you should take some of your fantasy football advice and use it on your writing. Maybe, you don't KNOW as much as you think you do, and perhaps you shouldn't criticize people who think different than you do. I think your statements where a little out of line and unprofessional. But, what do I know I am just a college student with "a thousand word vocabulary." Hale to thee oh might know it all. Give it a break man. Be less defensive, take criticism in stride and maybe YOU can learn something.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      You make some interesting points.

      I do make a habit of responding to every post, it's a pass time for me. I do have a lot of free time. Guilty.

      My statements towards Sean were rude. When people throw rocks at me I throw knives back. A better person wouldn't. Guilty.

      It all begs the question: Why throw rocks in the first place? What is the goal of a comment like "This article was a waste of my time."?

      Teach me something.

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  4. Mike Register 8 months ago

    Very good advice at the end of your article. After getting frustrated with ESPN's fantasy projections, I started doing my own projections. I check them every Tuesday morning with the actual results, and it has helped me hone my projection skills.

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    • Jacob Sloan 8 months ago

      Good practice. It's never a good thing to follow the ESPN projections. I think they're a little fishy at times.

      They sometimes hype a player with a huge point total based upon the thin chance they'll get a good matchup, or they'll inflate someone like Reggie Bush to 30+ points if he has several weeks of good production. In their defense, it's difficult to ever assign a large projection to a player accurately, but it's always good to read some written analysis alongside their numbers.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      It's amazing how the simplest exercise can produce results. We always remember things better when we write them down, and when making projections we remember particularly poorly.

      It's a great time to play a strength of the brain against a weakness of the brain.

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  5. Derek Moore 8 months ago

    cody-

    he replies to ever single post simply because this is meant to be interactive (notice the people asking questions about fantasy football).

    i wouldn't respond to those people buddy, the just want a reaction because they never have actual conversations with people (sean is the editor for a newspaper after all, he can't afford to have a social life. think about what it would do to his career!)

    by the way buddy, nice article. to bad idiots had to read it.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Hey Derek,

      Thanks for the support.

      The whole nature of this website is changing before our very eyes. Back in August 30k reads was a record, now that happens all the time.

      Before the Fox and CBS deals this was a writers site. People are more apt to be supportive when they put themselves out there. It's sort of like a karaoke bar: people who sing never boo.

      I'm learning. The top writers on the site always say that all of their e-mails are hate mail. I don't know why I would expect to be any different.

      I started writing about fantasy football out of sheer enjoyment of the topic. CBS syndicated a couple of articles and generated a landslide of attention that I have no idea what to do with. Four weeks ago I was amazed that anyone would care to comment on my writing. Now there's the mess you see above.

      I can only change my reaction. So that's what I'll try to do.

      Thanks again.

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  6. Bill Lee 8 months ago

    So let me see if I understand you... I started McGahee and Slaton (each scored) over Jacobs (held to "0") this past weekend - I did so because, while setting my lineup, I figured Jacobs would have a tough time running against the Steelers - so was I smart or lucky? Of course, I STILL lost the game to my opponent, but I'll consider it a "moral victory." Either way - good article and thanks for taking the time to write and submit it. Try not to let comments effect (AND affect) you (or your actions).

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      You made a reasonable guess, and it worked out. Smart and lucky. In that situation you don't want to beat yourself up or change strategies if it didn't work out.

      You want to track these things over a long haul, and not be emotional about the last result.

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  7. Chris Del Monico 8 months ago

    Buddy, I think it was a good article. You will never write something that everyone likes or agrees with. I think you should dwell on the fact that you wrote an article that reached your target audience and passed along information and knowledge that might help them in some way. A writer/editor for a newspaper who was searching for something other than a fantasy football article was most likey (and I am guessing here) not the audience you were trying to reach. As a fantasy football owner/coach looking for an advantage and someone who had not heard of this before, the article was interesting. I will, also, try your excercise on my team this week. Thanks for passing the information along.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Thanks for the support. I need to take my own advice and be emotionless about these comments.

      The exercise certainly can't hurt you. It just forces you to be honest with yourself about what happened.

      Good luck, and I'm glad I helped you out.

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  8. Brett Kettyle 8 months ago

    I thought that this was a great post. Luckily, I have been fortunate the last couple years by being correct on a couple of guesses on rookies (Last year Lynch and Peterson and this year Slaton and Chris Johnson) while other have not been (Mendenhall, etc). Every week I hear complaining about why each team isn't good, and maybe I don't understand it because most of the breaks have gone my way. However, I think there is more than luck too it. Once I heard that Kurt Warner was going to start, I targeted him in every league, knowing I could get him long after other players. I have also been victim to a bad trade or two this year, but I am still 2 games ahead of the league at this point. I think that this is great because at some point people need to realize that, although they couldn't have known Brady was going to get injured, they could get through it with a good draft (in the same league that I have a 2 game league I have Brian Westbrook, Anquan Boldin, Larry Johnson and Tony Scheffler). I think that is a great idea, because I also know that most people in my league look at Yahoo or ESPNs projected stats and don't think how reasonable they are. Great article.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Thanks Brett,

      If you were angling at Kurt Warner for some football reason more power to you. I sure wasn't.
      Nice call.

      Thanks for reading.

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  9. Reid Mueller 8 months ago

    yet again you write a pointless off topic article. This is a sports writing website not a psycology pratice.

    Just love helping you climb the rankings

    Your favorite,
    Reid Mueller

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  10. Andrew DeLara 8 months ago

    Buddy great article! I think some of the things you have mentioned can be useful outside of Fantasy life.

    Consciously, I make decisions on who to start by trying to reference several websites and their rankings.
    Those methods have done well for me this season. But I failed to insert Donnie Avery last week and got burned.

    Since I see you can help people with there fantasy lineups, can you give me help with mine?

    Ronnie Brown, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, or Brandon Jacobs? I can pick two RB's.

    Also Devin Hester or Donnie Avery?

    This is a chance I am going to take Owen Daniels over Jason Witten.

    Now here is what I THINK I should do. Forte and Brown over Jacobs and Johnson. Because... the Chicago Bears are really using Matt Forte and his ability as a receiver out of the back field is a good option against the Detroit Lions.

    I want to go with Avery, I feel compelled to use him. No stats I can look to other than the last two weeks, 'nuff said.

    Witten is a tough guy but that doesn't translate to fantasy points. Matt Schaub is a pass happy guy. With Steve Slaton probably getting 1 - 2 yards on first downs, passes will be coming on second and third downs. My only hope is the contain receivers Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter and look for the underneath to Daniels.

    I will be writing down my picks as well as yours, thanks for the advice. Keep the interesting articles coming.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Ronnie Brown is playing Denver, one of the worst run D's in the league.
      Matt Forte is playing Detroit, the worst D in the league period.
      Hester doesn't get thrown to enough. St. Louis is hosting Arizona, who allows a lot of big plays. So I'd go with Avery.

      So I agree, for slightly different reasons.

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  11. Jake Callo 8 months ago

    This article was about as informative as talking to a brick wall. At least the follow up comments have been entertaining.

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  12. Eddie Hayward 8 months ago

    Are we writing articles to show case a couple classes in psycology, or bashing the thing "MAN" calls Fantasy Football? I'm not really sure on that.

    I will say you had some good points in there. But come on Buddy, your not Tony_Kornheiser for PTI and your not Jay Mariotti from Around the Horn. So stop playing smart man and line-up advisor.

    Just create your own style and image. In other words; be a leader!

    You sound to much like Tony_Kornheiser, I think thats why so many hate.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Kornheiser is a little more artsy. He paints pictures, while I'm more of a logician. In my opinion.

      I don't watch around the horn, so I don't know about the other guy.

      I think it's the sheer volume of reads that causes the negativity. If you invite too many people to the party, somebody always needs to start a fight.

      Thanks for expressing the thoughts behind your critique. It's far more useful than random negativity.

      Have an awesome day.

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  13. Fabio Gallo 8 months ago

    Dear Mr. Smith

    Who should I start? Ryan Grant or Kevin Faulk, Cassel or Garcia, Donnie Avery & Eddie Royal or Roy Williams & Ted Ginn? The only reason why I'm considering Cassel is cause I have Phillip Rivers and he has a bye, luckly I have Adrian Peterson.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      I'd go Kevin Faulk. He's the most trusted option in New England, and Grant is playing the Titans.

      Avery and Royal would be my preference. I hate the Dallas offense with Brad Johnson at the helm, and Ted Ginn needs to show me a little more before I trust him.

      The Broncos can move the ball, and the Cardinals allow a lot of big plays.

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  14. Amin Sanchez 8 months ago

    The article is well written although I'm not sure if the philisophcal/psychological points really hit the bullseye on this particular topic. I will add though that the thoughts themselves and the idea of creating a kind of 'predictions log' seems to be very good ones. I also don't find anything wrong with responding to the user posts as much as you do because it mearly indicates an admirable passion for your writing. You do seem to take offense too often though to comments and respond to the critizism (constructive or not) with your own critizism. If you don't prefer the negativity I'd have to think that calling people out isn't gonna exactly help the problem. Honestly, intended or not, the article and your subsequent replies do also convey a kind of "i'm smarter than you" feeling that I would also expect would breed some less than desirable feedback. That's just my point of view, and I'm no writer, so I wouldn't say you should change your writing; more just to keep those things in mind. Either way it was thought invoking enough to get me (and apparently many others) to sign-up and comment so you're doing something right.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      You make a few excellent points.

      No matter how entertaining I find it to rip the haters, it's not the right thing to do.

      I consider all of my articles to be mini-classes, so you're probably right about the "I'm smarter than you" thing. People do a lot of dumb things because nobody ever bothered to tell them any different, I'm trying to change that by sneaking decision theory and probability classes into a game that people love to play.

      Hopefully I'll be able to tone down the rhetoric a bit and still get my point across.

      Thanks for your insights. They have helped.

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  15. Furious Fists 8 months ago

    Good reading. Too anylitical for me though. If you think too much about something, you might do the wrong thing. I do everything you just said, sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. Sometimes, it's luck. That is why some of the Pro Poker players are afraid of the amateurs. It's something called unpredictability. Get used to it, and let it go.

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  1. Andre Roy 8 months ago

    Just your opinion:

    Who would you start between : Cutler and E. Manning?

    Cutler struggled a bit...and E. Manning is'nt consistent
    thanks

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  2. Andrew Stephan 8 months ago

    Nice article. I am a little confused that you talk about random events happening when something good happens to your team, but yet you say when you lose you shouldn't blame it on luck. You essentially are saying don't pat yourself on the back because you got lucky, but it's all your fault when you lose. I really like the idea of writing down your projections before each game though. That would show how much of what you do is really luck and how much is by design.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      I guess my point is there's more luck involved in success than we let ourselves believe, and less involved in failures.

      The truth is in the middle.

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  3. George Gilliam 8 months ago

    Hey Buddy..Love the articles(and some comments.lol)..Anyway...Michael Turner or Tim Hightower? Have started Turner all year and after a couple of frusrating weeks..Should I give the nod to Hightower. Thanks a lot...George Gilliam

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Turner's been seeing a lot of eight man fronts. Look at the match up. If the Falcons opponent is in the bottom 10 against the run go Turner, all others go Hightower.

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  4. Matt 8 months ago

    Wow, are you serious?? Only 80% of the people in and around football were predicting the Cardinals to be good. Warnur, has Fitzgerald and Boldin but things just happen I guess. Geez what a waste of time, they seriously don't pay you for such articles do they??

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Not a dime.

      People have been predicting the Cardinals turn around since they built the new stadium. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

      Warner hasn't played a whole season since he was a St. Louis Ram. He's three bad sacks away from retirement. I'm comfortable with calling his play luck. You can call it whatever you want.

      Warner was tangential to the main point of the article: people have a hard time admitting when they've gotten lucky. From your comment it appears I was dead right on that part.

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  5. Michoel Botwinick 8 months ago

    So, Buddy: Kurt Warner or Matt Schaub?

    I'm leaning towards starting Warner, but Schaub is coming off a career week for him.

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  6. John Lorge 8 months ago

    You see these haters coming in from google a lot. They don't understand that as a writer on b/r some of the things you write are quick and easy tips for your reader base, and others are in-depth 20,000+ reads that get linked form CBS and Fox. Whos fault is it that br has a strong presence in the search engines? remember what dre told snoop "just brush them haters off, cause they cant get no closer to you than this (his shoulder)"

    haha anyways i liked what you wrote. It brings up a good fantasy point, why play the game if you are going to let your provider think for you???

    My only knock is telling people to print out their lineups with the projections. Lets use an excel spreadsheet (or DL open office for free if u dont have MS office) and keep your lineup in there. that way you can track your thoughts every week and we can go green. What if 10 million fantasy footballers printed off an extra sheet of paper for 16 weeks? 160 million sheets of paper. "think globally act locally" haha, just a thought, I'm no hippie, but we can all do our part right?

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      The Dre quote that's been running through my head all week is:

      "Gimme one more platinum plaque
      Then F--k rap, you can have it back."

      You're right about the paper. You'll be happy to know I got one of those reusable shopping bags recently, maybe that will help offset the difference. :)

      Hippies get a bad rap. If more people ate mushrooms and smoked weed the world would be a better place. We'd all get less done, but we'd enjoy this camping trip called life a whole lot more.

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  7. L S 8 months ago

    Like the article............still trying to decide of I should drop a Deuce! Suggestions? LS

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      You should pick up Pierre Thomas to start. I haven't heard anything more about the doping charges, and sometimes it takes the league a while to act on these issues.

      I'd keep McAllister on the roster until something concrete comes out. Watch Fantasy Football Live on yahoo sports and find out if he's playing every week.

      Wait and see.

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  8. Ryan Harle 8 months ago

    Buddy...I usually enjoy your articles( well written and good info.), as I did the end of this. However, the first part was all wrong. Let's put your theory to the TEST...

    The team I played last week had Peyton Manning, going into Monday I had a 17 point lead. Manning has had only 2 out of 6 games with more than 17 fantasy points ( and NO rushing TD's), with less than 2 minutes left , down by 3 scores ( I have a 1 point lead) instead of handing it to Rhoads; They push in Manning for the TD ( I lose bye 5)....Sooo is that lucky for the other team and not unlucky for me???

    ....Now for the Warner comment...It sounds like it came from someone who wasn't able to get Warner and probably recently got beat by a team that started him....I have him by the way!

    Sooo in the words of Gordon Ramsey, " Piss Off"

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  9. Jesse Williamson 8 months ago

    i have to tell you man... i wasn't really such a fan of the article either.

    but, i'll be constructive in my criticism. the article had a strong point, and actually raised some interesting topics.

    HOWEVER, when i read a fantasy article, i'm looking to get something out of it. let me be more specific: something tangible and easy to swallow--i'm looking to, with minimal effort, learn something i didn't know that can then be applied to my present and future actions.

    typically, that comes in the form of 'player x has been tearing things up in practice, and player y in front of him on the depth chart has been having issues--keep an eye on player x'. 'or, player y has a great playoff schedule--think about stashing him for that point in the season'.

    now, having read (and laughed) through the comments to this article, i should mention that at the end of the day there is a lot that you can do with the idea of making your own projections and then grading the results. BUT, it's labor intensive.

    people don't want to be told to do their homework. believe it or not, most of the people that read fantasy columns think that is what they are doing! heck, if you could win your league based on gut intuition and the sports you sucked up by osmosis, most people would probably leave it there. but that's not the case--everyone is looking for an edge.

    so, when people read an article that raises a bunch of points dealing with psychological theory and at the end tells them to go do some homework, they're likely to be (or SOME people are likely to be) annoyed. 'i read this whole thing just to have this guy tell me to grade myself??? what???'

    now, having said all that, the fact that you are going back and forth with the readers is great, in my opinion. heck, i spent more time reading the comments than the article itself, and by the time i was done i no longer had the urge to jump on the bandwagon and rant about the article not being what i wanted (expected) to get.

    my guess is that one way to make this a more successful article in terms of the RESPONSE (hey, if it wasn't written for a fantasy football audience looking for the equivalent of quick stock tips, it stands on its own just fine), would be to show how doing this type of analysis for yourself showed a measurable improvement in your own RESULTS. then, the fan could follow along with you, get involved in the decisions you were making, and see SPECIFICALLY how your point made sense.

    which it does. i rarely if ever take much note of projections. they are usually generated by a computer program, and rarely help anyone out more than understanding the actual facts of each players' situation.

    hey, congrats on getting the column buddy. i wouldn't mind writing a fantasy column myself, but hey i guess you DID YOUR HOMEWORK and went out there and grabbed yourself one. nice job.

    ask me to write a guest feature pro bono any time. i'm up for it.

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  10. Jesse Williamson 8 months ago

    i have to tell you man... i wasn't really such a fan of the article either.

    but, i'll be constructive in my criticism. the article had a strong point, and actually raised some interesting topics.

    HOWEVER, when i read a fantasy article, i'm looking to get something out of it. let me be more specific: something tangible and easy to swallow--i'm looking to, with minimal effort, learn something i didn't know that can then be applied to my present and future actions.

    typically, that comes in the form of 'player x has been tearing things up in practice, and player y in front of him on the depth chart has been having issues--keep an eye on player x'. 'or, player y has a great playoff schedule--think about stashing him for that point in the season'.

    now, having read (and laughed) through the comments to this article, i should mention that at the end of the day there is a lot that you can do with the idea of making your own projections and then grading the results. BUT, it's labor intensive.

    people don't want to be told to do their homework. believe it or not, most of the people that read fantasy columns think that is what they are doing! heck, if you could win your league based on gut intuition and the sports you sucked up by osmosis, most people would probably leave it there. but that's not the case--everyone is looking for an edge.

    so, when people read an article that raises a bunch of points dealing with psychological theory and at the end tells them to go do some homework, they're likely to be (or SOME people are likely to be) annoyed. 'i read this whole thing just to have this guy tell me to grade myself??? what???'

    now, having said all that, the fact that you are going back and forth with the readers is great, in my opinion. heck, i spent more time reading the comments than the article itself, and by the time i was done i no longer had the urge to jump on the bandwagon and rant about the article not being what i wanted (expected) to get.

    my guess is that one way to make this a more successful article in terms of the RESPONSE (hey, if it wasn't written for a fantasy football audience looking for the equivalent of quick stock tips, it stands on its own just fine), would be to show how doing this type of analysis for yourself showed a measurable improvement in your own RESULTS. then, the fan could follow along with you, get involved in the decisions you were making, and see SPECIFICALLY how your point made sense.

    which it does. i rarely if ever take much note of projections. they are usually generated by a computer program, and rarely help anyone out more than understanding the actual facts of each players' situation.

    hey, congrats on getting the column buddy. i wouldn't mind writing a fantasy column myself, but hey i guess you DID YOUR HOMEWORK and went out there and grabbed yourself one. nice job.

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  11. Jesse Williamson 8 months ago

    i have to tell you man... i wasn't really such a fan of the article either.

    but, i'll be constructive in my criticism. the article had a strong point, and actually raised some interesting topics.

    HOWEVER, when i read a fantasy article, i'm looking to get something out of it. let me be more specific: something tangible and easy to swallow--i'm looking to, with minimal effort, learn something i didn't know that can then be applied to my present and future actions.

    typically, that comes in the form of 'player x has been tearing things up in practice, and player y in front of him on the depth chart has been having issues--keep an eye on player x'. 'or, player y has a great playoff schedule--think about stashing him for that point in the season'.

    now, having read (and laughed) through the comments to this article, i should mention that at the end of the day there is a lot that you can do with the idea of making your own projections and then grading the results. BUT, it's labor intensive.

    people don't want to be told to do their homework. believe it or not, most of the people that read fantasy columns think that is what they are doing! heck, if you could win your league based on gut intuition and the sports you sucked up by osmosis, most people would probably leave it there. but that's not the case--everyone is looking for an edge.

    so, when people read an article that raises a bunch of points dealing with psychological theory and at the end tells them to go do some homework, they're likely to be (or SOME people are likely to be) annoyed. 'i read this whole thing just to have this guy tell me to grade myself??? what???'

    now, having said all that, the fact that you are going back and forth with the readers is great, in my opinion. heck, i spent more time reading the comments than the article itself, and by the time i was done i no longer had the urge to jump on the bandwagon and rant about the article not being what i wanted (expected) to get.

    my guess is that one way to make this a more successful article in terms of the RESPONSE (hey, if it wasn't written for a fantasy football audience looking for the equivalent of quick stock tips, it stands on its own just fine), would be to show how doing this type of analysis for yourself showed a measurable improvement in your own RESULTS. then, the fan could follow along with you, get involved in the decisions you were making, and see SPECIFICALLY how your point made sense.

    which it does. i rarely if ever take much note of projections. they are usually generated by a computer program, and rarely help anyone out more than understanding the actual facts of each players' situation.

    hey, congrats on getting the column buddy. i wouldn't mind writing a fantasy column myself, but hey i guess you DID YOUR HOMEWORK and went out there and grabbed yourself one. nice job.

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  12. Jesse Williamson 8 months ago

    hahaha... sorry about that... guess the website needs to work out a few kinks. when you post and aren't logged in you get an error screen, which led to me making triplicate (or more) postings.

    wasn't MY fault. just bad luck and a website injury.

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      LMAO.

      Dude, you've made this whole week worth it. Thanks so much for your comment.

      What's funny is that, normally, specific player recommendations are frowned upon by CBS Sportsline. The network has a staff of writers who cover that stuff every week. Michael McNeil broke that trend with a fantastic piece on playoff match ups. He wrote the better piece this week for sure.

      Basically if I give the people what they want (quick stock tips) the people will never see the articles. CBS will just run more Jamey Eisenberg stories.

      You're right. I have done my homework, and stories like these is what the network wants. So that's what I do. It's not MY fault, I'm just unlucky to be confined by network restrictions. :)

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  13. tim haggard 8 months ago

    im thinking about starting kevin walter what do you think?

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      It depends on what your other options are. I'd rather start Donnie Avery against the Cardinals- they can't go 2 games without allowing a 50 yard pass play.

      Minnesota is so good against the run that most people throw all day on them. Andre Johnson went nuts last week, so he'll get the double teams...Walter could work out for you.

      Thanks for reading, I hope that helped.

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  14. Zach Odom 8 months ago

    I have Chris Johnson, Willis McGahee, Brandon Jacobs, and Marshawn Lynch. I have to start two, who do you recommend???

    BTW, nice article.

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  15. Zach Odom 8 months ago

    HAHA!!! Funny Stuff. Anywho, I have Chris Johnson, Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch, and Brandon Jacobs. I have to start two of them, what would you do???

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      I'd go with Marshawn Lynch and Brandon Jacobs.

      The Giants are playing the Cowboys...it would do my heart good to see the 'Boys D play great two weeks in a row...but that hasn't happened since Charles Haley was on the team.

      Marshawn is the man in Buffalo. The Bills will score more points on average than either the Titans or Ravens. Both McGahee and Johnson lose what few goal line attempts their offense produces to other dudes.

      Thanks for reading, I hope that helped.

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  1. Bryan Goldberg 8 months ago

    "Even a broken clock is right twice a day" — oh wow, I love that expression, I am going to start using it. I just googled it and saw that it's a common idiom, but I had never heard it. Awesome. I'm going to spring that one on our engineering team some time when they least expect it :)

    Thanks Buddy!

    (and btw, another great article. You are taking BR and the Fantasy world by storm)

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    • Buddy Smith 8 months ago

      Hey thanks for reading,

      I love that expression, and I don't get enough opportunities to break it out. I picked it up on the stock exchange floor. Another favorite:

      "If you're hoping, you're probably on the wrong side."

      I have to say that things couldn't possibly be going better on the fantasy football writing front. Thanks for the support. I just made Senior Writer on B/R. Yay me! :) I have a book idea that will be fun to work on in the off season.

      The fantasy football field is wide open. The "Experts" you see on the sites haven't been doing it for very long. Most sports writers aren't accomplished mathematicians.

      I'll never be the best math person, or the best communicator. But I'm good enough at each to act as a human Rosetta Stone, translating the math symbols to words people can easily understand.

      I love that I get to teach life skills on top of the whole thing. It makes the whole process very rewarding, despite how annoying it may be to some of my loyal readers.

      So I'll plod along and answer comments. Help some people out, and piss some people off. I never thought I'd get attacked for being accessible...but I never thought this many people would read my stuff anyway.

      What do I know?

      Have an awesome weekend. Tell the guys in the engineering department I said hello.

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  2. Zach Kruse 8 months ago

    Holy cow Buddy, this article is getting way too much flack! Definitely unwarranted flack too. Nice job, can't wait to do the collaboration piece

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  3. Saraswathi Siriginia 8 months ago

    Nice and well done!

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