Shane Carwin vs. Junior Dos Santos: UFC 131 Fight Card, Early Breakdown
Suffering from another bout with diverticulitis, Brock Lesnar was forced to withdraw from his main event fight at UFC 131 against fellow Ultimate Fighter coach Junior dos Santos.
Replacing the former UFC Heavyweight champion will be the hard-hitting Shane Carwin, who has not entered the Octagon since losing to Lesnar for the belt almost a year ago.
The winner set to face current champion Cain Valasquez, possibly this fall at UFC 136. Expect both fighters, known for their vicious knockouts, to come out swinging.
Striking
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Both fighters have some incredible knockouts to their credit.
Finishing each of his opponents prior to his sole loss to Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin is a beast on his feet, sporting some of the most powerful hands in all of MMA. Just ask Frank Mir how hard Carwin hits. Mir was brutally knocked out in the first round at UFC 111.
Dos Santos, according to many analysts, hits just as hard as Carwin. Owning TKO victories over Mirko Crop Cop, Fabricio Werdum, and Gabriel Gonzaga, dos Santos is a proven powerhouse puncher.
The real advantage lies in the technical aspect of striking.
Carwin is more of a power puncher, looking for a KO with each strike. This strategy proved to be his undoing when Lesnar managed to weather the storm, leaving Carwin gassed and susceptible to the takedown.
Training with the sport's top strikers at Team Black House, dos Santos has shown that he can be a tactician, using both power and technique to pick apart Roy Nelson at UFC 117. Although he did not finish him, he wisely chose to conserve his energy and use accurate strikes to defeat the Ultimate FIghter Heavyweights winner.
Advantage: dos Santos
Submissions
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A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt under the Nogueira brothers at Team Black House, dos Santos has surprisingly few submission victories to his credit. Not including a verbal submission win over Cro Cop due to an injury via strikes, the current Ultimate Fighter coach only has one other tapout to his record.
Carwin, a purple belt under the Greg Jackson camp, has five submission victories, though none have come under the UFC banner. The former top contender has also shown a weakness to submissions, losing to Lesnar via arm triangle in the second round at UFC 116.
Although he has fewer submission victories inside the cage, dos Santos trains with some of the best Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the world in the Nogeuira brothers and Anderson Silva. He should have no problem stopping any unlikely submission attempts if Carwin gets the fight to the ground.
Advantage: dos Santos
Wrestling
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A NCAA Division II champion out of Western State College, Carwin is a highly skilled wrestler who has taken down some of the best in the UFC's heavyweight division.
Dos Santos, with no experience in wrestling, only recently showcased his takedown ability when he recorded his first successful takedown in the UFC against Roy Nelson at UFC 117.
Not even a contest as to who has the advantage.
Advantage: Carwin
Strength
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Comparing the two fighters visually, Carwin is clearly the bigger man. An enormous heavyweight, Carwin has reached the 265 lb. limit at each of his weigh ins.
Not a slouch himself, dos Santos' 6'4'', 240 lb. frame is just as terrifying.
Carwin, with his wrestling background and ability to knock out any opponent with one punch, has proven himself to be one of the strongest fighters in the UFC's heavyweight division.
Though Dos Santos is pretty powerful as well, Carwin's ability to impose his will is a sight to see.
Advantage: Carwin
Conditioning
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Although not as strong as his opponent, dos Santos has shown that he can go all three rounds and still look fresh.
Unable to finish Nelson, dos Santos was able to keep the pace and impose his will over his opponent, with each strike just as crisp and powerful as the one before.
Until his fight with Lesnar, Carwin never fought beyond the first round. Weathering the barrage of strikes Carwin unleashed in the first round at UFC 116, Lesnar exposed the chink in Carwin's armor—his conditioning.
Lesnar took full advantage of Carwin's poor conditioning during the beginning of the second round and submitted Carwin via an arm triangle.
Although neither fighter has very much experience going into the later rounds, dos Santos has proven that his conditioning is superior.
Advantage: dos Santos
Variables
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Carwin: Coming off a neck injury that required surgery following his lone loss to Brock Lesnar almost a year ago, Carwin will certainly have ring rust. With conditioning exposed as his weakness, dos Santos would be wise to push the pace and drag the fight out over three rounds. Still, Carwin's powerful hands should make dos Santos weary to stand in the pocket with this former top contender.
Dos Santos: Dos Santos is also returning from an extended lay off. Set to face current champion Cain Valasquez after defeating Roy Nelson, an injury to Valasquez forced dos Santos to sit on the sidelines. Electing to coach the current season of the Ultimate Fighter alongside Brock Lesnar, it will be interesting to see how dos Santos responds to the lay off.
His chin will also be tested for the first time, as Carwin is definitely the hardest puncher dos Santos has ever faced.
Prediction
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With a title shot against UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Valasquez looming for the victor, neither fighter plans to hold anything back.
A more technical striker and a better-conditioned athlete, dos Santos has an immediate advantage over the powerful Carwin.
However, Carwin's hard hitting punches and world-class wrestling should give dos Santos major problems if he clinches up with or is taken down by the former top contender.
This fight will certainly be exciting, and a knockout is almost certain.
Prediction: Dos Santos via TKO in the second round
