Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Martinsville Speedway

So thanks to some shrewd picking last week (Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Burton), my picks from last week finished 6th, 4th, and won at Charlotte.

Picking three guys just isn’t fair, especially when my “dark horse” won eight races earlier this year, my “sleeper” is second in points, and my lead pick has been the same for the past couple weeks. No more. From now on, I only pick one driver a week.

We head to Martinsville Speedway to kick off the second half of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. Martinsville is the stock car racing equivalent of taking the Monaco Formula 1 track’s famous hairpin 1,000 times.

It’s a punishing track for both man and machine. Only the best can say they’ve conquered Martinsville, and even some of NASCAR’s all-time greatest short track drivers, such as Terry Labonte, have never won at the bullring.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Martinsville:

1. Jimmie Johnson

Johnson hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 at Martinsville since April 14, 2002. He hasn’t finished outside the top 5 at Martinsville since April 10, 2005. He hasn’t led less than 100 laps at a Martinsville race since Oct. 23, 2005.

To top it off, his average finish here is 6.0; for drivers with 10 or more career starts here, that’s second only to Lee Petty‘s 5.5. You get the picture.

2. Jeff Burton

Burton hasn’t won here since 1997, but he’s led laps in both of the series’ last visits to Martinsville. He finished sixth and 12th here last year, and he was third earlier this season.

3. Greg Biffle

True, Da Biff’s never crashed out at Martinsville, or suffered brake failure. But his only top 10 in 11 starts here was in this race last year, when he finished seventh. Biffle’s as risky a pick as it gets this week, unless he has another flash of luck.

4. Carl Edwards

Carl’s got no momentum after the past two weeks, has never led a lap at Martinsville, and has a pedestrian average finish of 19.1 here.

True, he hasn’t failed to finish on the lead lap since 2005, but just completing all 500 circuits on a regular basis here isn’t enough to make you a smart pick. Edwards’ best finish at Martinsville is ninth.

5. Clint Bowyer

The good news: In five starts and 2,506 possible laps here, Clint has only failed to complete four circuits. The bad: Like Edwards, he’s never led a lap, his best finish here is 9th, and that’s not enough to make him anything more than a backup pick.

6. Kevin Harvick

Anyone remember the time Happy got suspended here after a Truck Series incident? That was pretty cool.

All kidding aside, Harvick can be solid, if not spectacular, at Martinsville when he doesn’t run into issues. It’s been four years since he led here (when he led 104 laps and finished eighth) but in his last six starts here, five of them have seen the No. 29 come home 15th or better.

Slightly better than Edwards and Bowyer, for sure, but his performance still leaves a little to be desired.

7. Tony Stewart

In his last six attempts at Martinsville, Stewart’s worst finish is 13th. In that same timeframe, he has four top 5s and a win, which occurred in spring 2006.

Of Chase drivers, Stewart’s average finish of 11.9 in 19 career starts is fourth best. After two straight weeks of decent runs and double-digit laps led, Stewart has the momentum to capitalize this weekend.

8. Jeff Gordon

Though eclipsed by protégé Johnson, Gordon’s average finish of 7.0 in 31 starts isn’t half bad. Gordon knows how to get around the track. His worst starting spot was 25th, way back in 1993, and he has seven poles, including poles in the last two races here.

He also hasn’t finished outside the top 10 here since October 2002, and has led at least one lap at the track every year since 2001, inclusive. Given his below-average season this year, Gordon may be a steal for this weekend.

9. Kyle Busch

Despite a poor finish here earlier this year, Shrub’s actually been relatively decent at Martinsville throughout his career. He led laps in both races last year, finishing fourth in each event.

His average finish of 16.7 is brought down by an overheating issue in 2005 and an early spin this past spring. Busch’s past record here, combined with momentum from a 4th place finish last week, hint at a solid run this weekend.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Junebug hasn’t failed to complete a lap here since October 2004, when he crashed late in the race. He’s also led laps in each of the past three Martinsville events, leading a race-high 146 earlier this year on the way to a sixth-place finish.

It also helps that Hendrick Motorsports usually dominates at Martinsville. Even without momentum after a string of poor runs, Junior should be a factor to win.

11. Matt Kenseth

Kenseth rarely leads laps at Martinsville (23 total since 2004), and rarely scores the sort of top finishes one would hope for here (two top 10s since 2004), but he’s also only failed to complete 11 laps since 2002.

Usually, Kenseth finishes inside the top 20 here (11 out of 17 starts), but there are definitely better drivers out there.

12. Denny Hamlin

With an average finish of 9.5 in six starts, it’s obvious that Hamlin’s good at Martinsville. Only once has he finished outside the top 10. Subtract that accident-induced 37th place finish from his records, and his average finish is a solid 4.0.

Given the past few weeks, Denny may be a bit of a shaky pick, but if he drives up to his track record, he could definitely surprise a few people.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Picking Johnson is too easy. Despite his recent struggles, Gordon’s also almost too certain to do well this weekend. Even suggesting Denny Hamlin feels like a cop-out.

I’m going to go with the interesting pick and say that Kyle Busch will win this weekend. Busch has reset his focus on winning as many races as possible this year over NASCAR’s big three series.

Last weekend’s Nationwide Series win and fourth place in Sprint Cup show that he still has the necessary fire inside to win. If his team has found its stride again as well, they could pull off the upset this weekend.