NFL: Investing in Sunday, Week Seven

Scott RiegerAnalyst IOctober 14, 2008

Week Seven

Overall: 3-0, +5 units (100%)

Bonus College Plays: 0-1

Last week, all of my official plays came through and did so decisively. This week, there are a lot of great games and some lines that I think are a little out of place. We will attempt to be perfect again and exploit those inaccuracies.

Titans (-8) @ Chiefs

The Chiefs are two steps above atrocious and it shows, week in and week out. They did win their last home game against Denver but got blown off the field in Carolina before the bye week. They have lost by an average of 20 points in their losses.

The Titans, meanwhile, are 5-0 and have a stranglehold on their division, even without Vince Young at the helm. They are awesome on defense and are getting surprising returns in the running game. The Titans should be able to pitch another big loss towards the Chiefs. This line will likely move towards seven before Sunday, which will make it an even better play, but we'll take it at eight, too.

The Play: Titans (-8) for two units


Cowboys (-6.5) @ Rams

Listen, it was a feel good story with the Rams winning one against Washington in Haslett's first game as coach, but make no mistake, the Cowboys are not happy about the Arizona game or the fact that Romo is out. Brad Johnson is a good veteran with tons of experience, and the addition of Roy Williams won't hurt. Look for them to crush the Rams.

The Play: Cowboys (-6.5) for two units

Jets (-3.5) @ Raiders

The Raiders are horrible...period! The Jets will make quick work of the Raiders this week. Thomas Jones finally came alive last week, and with him going good and Favre under center, the Jets are a solid play here.

The Play: Jets (-3.5) for two units

Colts (-2) @ Packers

The Colts and Peyton Manning appear to have finally hit their stride. They lost handily on opening night to the Bears, but since then, they have only lost once, and it was by two points to the Jaguars.

They looked impressive against the Ravens' vaunted defense this past week. The Packers also played well and came away with a big victory up in Seattle, but had been on a three-game losing streak coming into last week. Aaron Rodgers is banged up but continues to play and perform.

The Packers have a good, opportunistic defense, but I don't expect Peyton to give them much opportunity. The Colts are a solid play this week. Lay the two points!

The Play: Colts (-2) for two units

COLLEGE BONUS PLAY (This is a Thursday game)

BYU (pk) over TCU 

BYU has an explosive offense coming off it's worst showing of the year—one that they still won 21-3. TCU has a stifling defense and their starting QB is expected back, which I believe is the reason the spread is so tight.

This should be an easy win for BYU if they execute their offense. I'll be VERY surprised if they lose this game, which is why I'm making this a three-unit play!
The Play: BYU (pk) over TCU for THREE UNITS

Other lines and why I’m not playing them

Chargers (pk) @ Bills
– Two very good teams going at it, and that is an attractive line, but the way the Bills have been playing, and with this game in Buffalo, I would stay away from this one.

Steelers (-10) @ Bengals
– The Bengals look more like your fathers BUNGLES lately and that likely has a lot to do with Carson Palmer being hurt. The Steelers are steaming along pretty well. If Palmer plays, I would take the points and Cincy, but since it's Fitzpatrick, I would go with PIT. This one isn't an official play, but PIT would be a solid pick here.

Ravens @ Dolphins (-2.5)
– The Phins had the game last week and lost it at the end in heartbreaking fashion. Nonetheless, they have been a surprise and their offense, particularly the running game, is tough to stop.

The Ravens are a great defense but were exposed by the Colts last week. Look for them to rebound and this be a hard fought, tight game. The line doesn't bode well there, so I'll stay away.

Vikings @ Bears (-3.5)
– This game is always a tough one. I’ll pass.

Saints @ Panthers(-3)
- Two of the best NFC teams, division rivals, and great offenses going at it.

49ers @ Giants (-10.5)
– 10.5 is a lot to give a Martz offense, but since this game is in NY, the Giants should take care of business. Given the poor performance against Cleveland and the short week. I'll pass here. 

Lions @ Texans (-9) – I don't pick the Lions' games, but I do think they will make it close. Even without Roy Williams.

Browns @ Redskins (-7) – The Redskins are a very good team, but one that can be inconsistent. They are one of the hardest teams to gauge. The Browns finally woke up and played like many expected them to on Monday Night, but with a short week and going into a hostile environment, this is a tough draw. We are trying to make money here so, I will have to pass on this play.

Seahawks (+10.5) @ Bucs
– Garcia played great last week and the Bucs have been awesome at home this year.  The Seahawks have been disappointing and were hit with horrible luck and injuries. The Bucs should take this one, I'm marginal on it though.

Broncos @ Patriots (-3)
– The Pats just aren't the same team without Mr. Brady leading things. The Broncos have an explosive offense, and while NE has a good defense, they let San Diego hang a 30 spot on them last week. With Denver coming off a tough loss to Jacksonville, I expect them to pour it on the Pats in Foxborough.

This one isn't an official play yet because I hate to pick against NE at home, but I may add it on Sunday. Broncos will win this game.

That does it for this week.