2008-09 Dallas Mavericks: The Story Of Rick and a Kidd

Editor's note: this is the first of a comprehensive, three part season preview of the Texas triad. First up? The Dallas Mavericks.

"You don't live by jumpers, you die by jumpers."--Charles Barkley

The Dallas Mavericks will embark on another redemption quest to earn back the championship they choked away in 2006. Bill Walton says he finds it hard to take this team seriously, and for once, the annoying blabbermouth analyst is right.

If anyone knows what to expect from this team--anything from an early implosion to a deep playoff run is possible--stand up so the world can recognize you as the only one of your kind. How can you compare the team's aura heading to Miami after a building a 2-0 lead in the 2006 NBA Finals to the recent five-game flameout to the New Orleans Hornets and not be confused?

Mavericks fans who hope Mark Cuban will engineer another Blockbuster roster move should get real. The Jason Kidd trade is it. His $21 million, handcuff of a contract ensures this team years of financial distress. Cuban dumped $17 million from his own wallet to make this deal work. He would not toss around that kind of money if he believed that Kidd was anything other than the missing piece to a championship (see Nash, Steve).

This season will be about making Kidd worth his acquisition price. The Mavs got him, so fans might as well give him the opportunity to play a full season before indicting him. You have no choice.

How the rest of the roster fills out is of equal concern. You have no choice there, either.

Faced with the toughest question of any owner or general manager--blow up the roster after two first round exits or keep the only Maverick core to reach an NBA Finals--Cuban and Donnie Nelson opted for the latter.

Cuban errs in keeping the core intact:

Which of these three is harder to believe?

A) The government's solution to the financial crisis is to hand $700 billion more to irresponsible and immoral bankers
B) Cloris Leachman is still on Dancing With the Stars
C) Just two years ago, the Mavericks were eight quarters away from the franchise's first the Larry O' Brien trophy?

Since building that 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals, the Mavs' playoff record stinks--3-10, five of those losses by 20+ points, and zero road victories.

No player has been criticized more in the Mavs debacle than Dirk Nowitzki. He should absorb the brunt of the postseason futility backlash because he has been the team's on-court leader. However, if you want to play pretend that Nowitzki is the only problem for the Mavs, get a clue. Here's a look at key playoff losses for the Mavs in the last three years and who failed to produce.

           2006 Finals

Game 3: Miami 98, Dallas 96
Game 4: Miami 98, Dallas 74
--The Mavericks did choke away a 13-point lead in the first contest in South Beach, but give some credit to Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O' Neal and Pat Riley for that one. Did you expect the Heat to let the Mavs sweep them off the floor? Tough teams should always be prepared to lose close contests on the road. Nowitzki missed a key free throw at the end of that game, but so what? Move on and focus on winning the next one. Examine the post-game tape and see Wade nailing ridiculous fadeaways and prepare for the next contest.

The Mavs did not move on. They stood in place, fell asleep and forgot to wake up when Miami drubbed them. There was no excuse for this loss, and it, not game three of the series, is the worst for the team to date.

Dirk Nowitzki: 2-14 FG, 1-5 from beyond the arc, nine rebounds and four turnovers. He did get to the free throw line 13 times, and made 11, which padded his scoring total, but other than that, he sucked. Anyone else remember the point blank lay-ups he missed?

Josh Howard: 1-8 FG, 0-4 from beyond the arc, 7 rebounds, and four fouls that limited his effectiveness. Nowitzki and Howard had an unfortunate contest to see who could register higher on the suck scale. Players have poor games, true, but this was downright obscene.

Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse kept them in the game for three quarters, but did nothing defensively. Unless, of course, you consider the hard foul on O' Neal a defensive accomplishment. Diop and Dampier were also pathetic.

Game 5, Miami 101, Dallas 100

If you cup your hands over your ears and listen closely, you can still hear Mark Cuban screaming at Bennett Salvatore about the suspect officiating in this pivotal game. If you have not yet watched Avery Johnson's response to Dallas Morning News beat writer Eddie Sefko's 'was there a foul' question, click http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RjmjejukO0">here>. It's priceless.

The leaking-roof play of the team's young point guard, Howard and Nowitzki did come at a price. Basketball fans can argue for years about Wade earning more free throw attempts than the entire Mavericks' squad. Miami shot 49 free throws and made only 32. That's 17 missed points that were unguarded. Oh yeah, Shaq makes them when they count. Sure. This is a tougher game to evaluate. What's worse: that Miami missed 17 free throws and still won by a point or that Dallas squandered multiple opportunities to win the game despite an eye-popping 49-25 free throw disparity.

Here's what key players did or did not do in the game's critical moments.

Devin Harris: 2-12 FG, 0-4 FG in the final quarter and a half, including a premature heave with four seconds to go in the third, botching a critical chance for the team to take a three point lead into the final period.

Dirk Nowitzki: He drilled three jumpshots, two of them defended superbly by Udonis Haslem, in the game's final eight minutes. They were jumpshots, though, not drives to the rim. He also passed up a decent 20-footer to dish to a well-covered Jason Terry. That sour decision earned the Mavs a 24-second violation. Miami took the lead on the next possession when Wade faded over Harris. I'm not going to nag Nowitzki about missing that one free throw because Wade missed four of his 21 attempts. I am more concerned with his suspect defense and unwillingness to bombard the basket instead of settling for jumpers.

Josh Howard: 8-17 FG, 10 rebounds, 9-11 FT. Numerically, his game was solid, but in the last few minutes of regulation and overtime, he was awful. He missed a critical jumper and several key defensive rotations, and, uh, timeout, anyone? "No," Johnson said, "we did not want that timeout."

Game 6: Miami 95, Dallas 92

Series summary: Nowitzki spent the series shying away from the big fella'. Does anyone doubt the series outcome would have differed if Nowitzki attacked O' Neal instead of whimpering away from hard contact? Yes, Dirk choked in most key moments, but this collapse was a team effort. The Mavs front office also deserves some flack for openly discussing victory parade plans while the team still needed two road wins to finish the job.

           2007 PLAYOFFS
Game 1: Golden State 97, Dallas 85
Game 3: Golden State 109, Dallas 91
Game 4: Golden State 103, Dallas 99
Game 6: Golden State 111, Dallas 86

Series summary: "Punish them midgets." The Chuckster was unflatteringly right, but the Mavs did not listen. They roamed the perimeter like cowards, defended like crap and followed the Warriors' pace instead of dictating their own. Nowitzki delivered a nauseating 2-13 performance in the deciding game six that was indicative of his rocky play throughout the first round affair, Harris was just nauseating and Dampier and Diop played like chumps instead of would-be champs.

After winning the sixth most games in NBA regular season history, the Mavs sputtered and died against a one-dimensional eighth seed.

           2008 PLAYOFFS
New Orleans: 102, Dallas 94
New Orleans: 127, Dallas 103
New Orleans: 97, Dallas 84
New Orleans: 99, Dallas 94

Series summary: Nowitzki was not the problem in this series. He shot well, defended adequately and rebounded to his ability. His inherent flaws as a leader deserve a separate discussion (see below). Howard, Stackhouse and Terry, however, stunk up both arenas with rotten shooting. I wouldn't laud their defensive efforts, either. You're not off the hook, Jason Kidd. Keep reading.

Blame Avery?
As a kid who knew little about basketball beyond its grand spectacle, I watched and listened to Avery Johnson intently when they showed Spurs huddles on TV. It was never hard to pick him out from the coaches and 11 or 13 other players. He was the one yelling mercilessly in that thick, Cajun accent, telling his teammates what to do next.

The man was born to coach basketball. Anyone who watched Johnson as a player could see the head coach in him. His clutch trey against the New York Knicks in the 1999 NBA Finals, which he once told David Letterman contained the sweat, frustrations and triumphs of his career in its release, summarizes the work of a player who always had to fight for respect and a roster spot.

The same team that retired Johnson's jersey last year also cut him twice and once told him he would never carve his NBA niche. His prove em' wrong attitude is what makes him a wonderful head coach. It's also why he no longer coaches the team he led to the NBA Finals just two years ago.

Johnson is a stubborn and impatient control freak. Can anyone look at his handling of Jason Kidd in the Mavs' playoff run--including benching him in the final seconds of a key game in San Antonio--and not see his flaws?

When Johnson coaches, he has difficulty separating the bossy floor general that quarterbacked the Spurs offense for nearly a decade from the brilliant sideline tactician that could become one of the greatest to ever do it.

Most of my Maverick-loving friends are ecstatic with Johnson's departure from Dallas. They loved his potential but grew tired of his mistakes. They concede he was outcoached in every series his team lost.

When I read stories quoting Mark Cuban as saying several players wanted out if Johnson returned, I can semi-understand why his firing excites so many.

Then, I don't understand it. Johnson was the best coach the Mavs have hired in the history of the franchise. Don Nelson made them a competitive run-and-gun team that could win 60-plus games and reach the second round or conference finals, but disciplined defensive squads like the Spurs dispatched them in five or six games.

I did not take the Mavericks seriously until Johnson assumed the coaching post. His 2005 and 2006 teams could still score in bunches and trailers, but they also made defense a top priority. He held them accountable for missed rotations and allowing opponents to shoot a high percentage.

The greatest thing the Mavs have ever done with Nowitzki is beat the team of the decade in a deciding game seven on the road. With apologies to the Detroit Pistons and Los Angeles Lakers, the Spurs are the standard for greatness. They have contended for a championship in every year Duncan has led them and continue to serve as a model franchise.

And the Mavericks beat them in 2006. The Spurs would probably have bested Steve Nash's Suns, especially with the weapon of Amare Stoudemire in street clothes, and would have been favored against Miami. Nowitzki and the other role players could score against the Spurs, and the 7-foot German torched them with 37 points and the game-tying three point play in that game seven, but that was not the problem.

The Mavs needed Johnson to teach them the necessary discipline to compete in deciding games against contenders to become one. He also knew the Spurs playbook from executing it in his player days.

So, when Mark Cuban was confronted with the question of whether to hold his players accountable for not living up to Johnson's lofty standards, which led the Mavs to the brink of Larry O' Brien Trophy and a 67-win season, or exterminate him, he took the easy road.

It is far easier to fire a coach than to admit that the players are the problem. Cuban kept the same core of players that has become softer than Charmin when it counts most. I am not sold that Rick Carlisle, a coach who has won less than Johnson, can just swoop in and repair this team's cracked psyche.

Carlisle's daunting job is to convince the rest of us that this same Mavericks squad can consistently attack the rim and defend like the other end of the court matters. Johnson did it for nearly two seasons before his players began tuning him out. Was his method too abrasive to be effective or is this squad too wussified?

We will know in a few months if the 'blame Avery' tactic was the right move or a hardware store roof patch doomed to leak.

Jason Kidd: failed PR move or trade worth a better chance?

To summarize my view of this trade, I must steal Eddie Sefko's words. The Mavs were not going to win a championship in 2008 with Devin Harris, and after the slew of conference altering trades, they were not going to win one with Jason Kidd.

So, why mortgage a potential All-Star point guard who was part of the team's only NBA Finals appearance for an aging erratic shooter with a fat price tag? Jason Kidd is a first-ballot hall-of-fame point guard who remains one of the game's premier passers, but his arrival gives the Mavs the narrowest of championship windows.

My guess (also Sefko's) on why Cuban pulled the trigger: this was a PR move to fill seats at the American Airlines Center. Nowitzki blessed the trade proposition and wanted a pass-first point guard, harking back to his days with Steve Nash, so Cuban gave him one.

But, his immediate addition brought the team no closer to a championship than the one helmed by Harris. It left the team in salary cap disarray and affords them no financial flexibility moving forward, unless they decide to move him before the trade deadline.

News flash: that's not happening. Cuban invested $17 million of his own money and surrendered much of the team's future to make the trade work because he believes in what Kidd can still do now.

Kidd can still contribute a lot to a franchise if his coaches correctly use his skill set. Johnson used him atrociously, forcing him often to spot up and shoot, which has always been a weakness, and because few Mavs know what help is anymore, he looked like a defenseless grandfather chasing Olympic sprinters days ahead of him.

He should have no trouble garnering Carlisle's support for his first full campaign. The coach will spend the entire pre-season figuring out ways to make Cuban's risky investment look good and effective. Cuban wanted a coach who still believes Kidd can hang with Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Tony Parker.

He also played only 35 games with the Mavs, plus a playoff ouster, and this type of chemistry changing trade takes time. That Pau Gasol immediately fit with the Lakers was an aberration.

The Mavs did surrender a lot to land Kidd, but give him a full season to prove the deal wasn't stupid. I have loads more faith in this trade than the Suns' prospects with Shaquille O' Neal.

Howard's career goes out of bounds:
Howard was the best story of that 2006 championship run. He had willed himself through college, when few believed he could succeed, overcome his knee-braced childhood and was beginning to look like the greatest 28th draft pick in NBA history. Here he was in an NBA Finals, showing millions of basketball fans that success is attainable to those who are willing to work for it.

He played solidly in the Golden State flameout but also drew some jeers. That was nothing.

Then, his rough 2007, in which he lost two women important in his development--a grandmother and great-grandmother--and saw his best friend Devin Harris shipped to New Jersey for a 35-year-old with whom he rarely gelled, threw him into a funk that has puzzled his biggest fans.

His growing list of off-the-court missteps now includes reckless speeding, hosting a party after a key playoff loss and disparaging the national anthem at a charity football game.

Yes, his public raking through the coals has been unfair, but every celebrity sports or entertainment figure is subject to such criticism. When you're famous, anything you say in public, especially in front of a camera, even if it's said without thinking first, usually gets plastered all over You Tube and discussed on talk shows.

The Mavs should be more concerned with his on-the-court missteps than his public relations crisis. Fan reaction at the team's preseason opener, after his slew of apologies to them, suggests they have mostly forgiven him anyway.

They need that special player from 2006 and parts of 2007 to return. He is the scrappy forward who does everything well enough to change a game on either end.

If that Howard, the one Spurs should have drafted, returns, the Mavs can be special and compete with the Spurs and Celtics big threes. He can also make Ron Artest playing in Houston, not Dallas, less of a bummer for Mavericks fans.

Josh Howard, the Mavs need you. If he keeps his solid preseason play going, and Nowitzki and Kidd produce at All-Star levels, the Mavs might turn from a choking joke to a serious contender.

Projected starting lineup:

Note: the assigned grades reflect what I think each player can contribute at his best, given his assigned role.

PG - Jason Kidd, B+
He may be 35 and approaching his career twilight, but Kidd, if used correctly can still run a championship-level offense. He led the Nets to two straight NBA Finals by outrebounding many of his opponents' best guards and forwards, throwing bullet passes for easy scores and leading by example. He also ran Byron Scott out of New Jersey, was probably a major player in Johnson's ouster and can further frustrate many fans if he blows an offense tailor-made for his faculties.

SG - Jerry Stackhouse, C
Stackhouse now shows age, shoots with hesitation and continues to lose the quickness and athleticism that allowed him to raid the rim and make spectacular blocks. He may get the starting nod, though, so that Carlisle can continue Johnson's idea to make Terry a sixth man. If Stackhouse can contribute at least 10 points and stay healthy, he will retain veteran value.

SF - Josh Howard, A
Howard's long-range stroke faltered in much of the season's second half and against the Hornets in the first round. When the Mavs began losing games with moronic jumpers, he was often a culprit. To climb back to success, he must revisit his attacking style, use his athletic frame to cause matchup nightmares, and above all, mesh with Jason Kidd.

PF - Dirk Nowitzki, A-
When Nowitzki played through a painful leg injury to carry his team to the postseason last spring, he proved that he may be many things, but a coward is not one. He works as hard as any player I have seen and has morphed from a liability to an adequate defender. Johnson had the right idea in trying to develop Nowitzki's post game and pick-and-roll response. However, he will never enthrall or lead a huddle the way Tim Duncan does and he will never help defend like No. 21, either. Also, despite the best attempts to junk up his once one-dimensional jumpshot game, he will still always be a jumpshooter at heart. A team can win a title with this seven-footer as its leading scorer, but maybe not this one.

C - Erick Dampier, B-
Is any starting center more inconsistent than Dampier? There are far worse ones who can't defend or convert easy looks in any contest. Dampier can drift from a brilliant 15 and 15 night to a foul-plagued, disinterested and pathetic performance the next. He failed to lock up the staring spot under Johnson's tutelage, so his performance under Carlisle will help determine how far this team can go.

Key reserves:
SG - Jason Terry, C+
The next best super-sub after Manu Ginobili is the streaky Terry. In his contract year, his best included a 35-point outburst in game five of the NBA Finals. In his previous two, non-contract seasons, his output fluxuated between brilliant flashes and head-scratching complacency. Of all the jumpshot-minded Mavs, he can be the most fatal--and that's both positive and negative. He always believes that his shot will fall, even if Bruce Bowen is camping under his armpits, and usually against his Texas rivals, those shots under duress go down. Against many other teams, not so much. When his heaves drop, he looks invincible. When he misses, he looks ordinary and not good enough.

PF - Brandon Bass, A+
His addition last year brought toughness to a team in sore need of testicles. He rebounds ferociously in crowds, rarely yields a lose ball, jams with authority and defends like the rest of the Mavericks need to if they want to win the golden trophy. It is often role playing heroes like Bass that complete and propel talented, contending rosters to championships. I love this guy's tenacity and grit and so should you.

C - DeseGana Diop, B-
Is bringing back Diop, an exceptional post defender who finished off Duncan in that 2006 series by bottling him up, a good move for the Mavs? Of course. Should the Mavs have spent their entire mid level exception, about $5 million, to re-acquire a backup who could never lock up a starting spot? Hell no. Cuban spent too much for this fan favorite after giving him away in the bloated Kidd deal. He will bolster a diminished front court, but he needs to be better to earn his keep.

PG - Jose Juan Barea, Inc.
The Mavs inked Barea to a two-year deal with an option year worth $4.8 million. This means Donnie Nelson thinks Barea can backup Kidd better than Tyronne Lue or anyone else who auditioned for the role. The Mavs threw a lot of money at an unproven player, who needs to perform. He gets an incomplete from me as I need to see him play more than garbage minutes to decide if he is worth his stiffer paycheck.

G/F - Antoine Wright, Inc.
A key bench role awaits Wright this season. However, two things must happen for that to see fruition. He needs to show marked improvement from his tenuous New Jersey tenure and Carlisle must play him more than Johnson did. He gets an incomplete from me for the same reason as Barea

Players who will compete for a roster spot:
SG - Gerald Green, Inc.
Green receives high marks in the 'easy to root for' category but a failing grade in the 'gets it' one. It would seem that a player with the ups to dunk a ball one-handed after hanging in the air to blow out a candle would have no trouble finding secure pro basketball employment. Alas, this is where talent and performance, and potential and realization are often at odds. He has jetted between four teams in a 16-month span and was cut from a roster than won only 24 games. He played just 15 minutes total on a roster that won 22 games in a row. His past gives every indication that he will stumble again, but he says he has worked hard this summer. John Lucas eagerly agrees. The Mavs sorely need Green to exhibit enough maturity to nail down a rotation spot. He scored big in the Summer League and grabbed 18 against the Chicago Bulls in a preseason game. Here's hoping he finally gets it in the regular season.

F - Reshawn Terry, Inc.
This athletic forward has done all the right things from committing to defense to making smart plays, but his spot on the team is far from a lock. He gets an incomplete as I want to see more of him in the regular season before rendering judgment.

F - Shawne Williams, C-
Landed in the Eddie Jones trade, Donnie Nelson calls him an "exciting young prospect" and said he looks forward to "developing him into the player he wants to be." Forget the code speak. What Nelson is really saying is he's not there yet. I hesitate to promise him a roster spot, since the Mavs need to win now. Is there room on this squad for a third-year player who needs a season of proper coaching attention to become an effective support man? Much like Salim Stoudemire in San Antonio, Dallas coaches love what he could do, but cannot be certain he will do it if they offer him a rotation perch.

Five games to remember from the 2007-08 campaign:
Note: The Mavs have removed the 2007-08 schedule and scores from its Web site, so I cannot verify and post three of the scores.

1. Washington Wizards at Mavericks, Mavs at Wizards, both losses

The Mavericks allowed the ailing Wizards to knife them twice. The Wizards played both games without Gilbert Arenas, and the second without Caron Butler, and still scored more than 110 points in each. The Mavs defense, or lack thereof, allowed easy layups, open threes and an all-Washington-could-eat buffet of fast break points. The quickest way for the Mavs to fall early is to play this brand of defenseless, uninspired ball.

3. Mavericks at Detroit Pistons, L 67-90

This contest showcased the Mavs' ability under Johnson to throw away a competitive game with imbecilic long-distance heaves early or late in the shot clock. The Pistons broke open a one-point game in the third when Howard, Nowitzki and everyone else in a Dallas uniform decided attacking the basket would be worse than a Celine Dion rap album. Bad move. While many games showed the Mavs' crumbly defense, this one showed downright pathetic shot selection and ball movement.

2. Mavericks at Boston Celtics, L 90-94

Remember that string of losses where the Mavs were right therebut could not finish the job? This came before that but easily blends in with that mucky mess. The Celtics, playing without an injured Kevin Garnett, bested the Mavericks (yes, Harris was not playing, I know) on hustle and shot selection. The Mavs clanged 70 percent of their trey attempts and let key rebounds slip from their hands. Most notably, Rajon Rando stole an offensive rebound from seven-foot Dirk Nowitzki. This loss was just offensive.

4. Mavericks at Phoenix Suns, W

The Mavs erased an 11-point fourth quarter deficit to win handily. Nowitzki played brilliantly, mixing rhythm jumpers with imaginative post moves, and netting important rebounds. Dampier led an inspired defensive charge that held the high-octane Suns to a 13-point final period. Games like this offer hope that this team can respond in critical moments instead of collapsing.

5. New Orleans Hornets at Mavericks, W
This final game of the regular season turned out not to be a preview of the ensuing first round series. How sad. The Hornets amassed a flurry of runs but the Mavs responded each time by forcing a slew of misses and mounting their own scoring runs. Kidd recorded his 100th career triple double. Mavs fans should care less about this milestone and more about this hopeful glimpse: that in one game, the 35-year-old Kidd outplayed the best youngster floor general, possibly on the planet. More games like this and maybe Walton and I can take this squad seriously.

Five questions that will determine the Mavs' postseason fate:

1.       Can Carlisle make Kidd effective enough in his system to hide his deteriorating defense and career-long erratic shooting?

2.       In the thick of an important game, when a team tests the Mavericks with a scoring run, will they respond with a lethargic jumpshot or force the ball inside?

3.       Can a core that has participated in the three of the worst playoff flameouts in NBA history recover enough to retain a competitive edge in the playoffs?

4.       Carlisle has promised to improve the team's offensive arsenal, but can he get them to play inspired defense?

5.       Nowitzki is not a vocal leader. Can the Mavericks win a championship when their best player has no penchant for such a role?

Prognosis:
Carlisle wants to install an offense that emphasizes player and ball movement, similar conceptually but different in its execution than Rick Adelman's system in Houston.

Some players and many fans rued the increasing predictability of Johnson's paint by numbers offense. Johnson's schemes worked well when his squad committed to defense. It looked horrible in many games after the Kidd trade, in part because the stagnant sets forced the aging point guard to shoot out of rhythm or spot up with the shot clock winding down.

Kidd is a high turnover point guard because his creativity often trumps his sense.

He fearlessly throws passes most point guards would not dream of attempting and drills most of them like smart missiles. The best offense for Kidd involves improvisation and scoring on the break. The Mavs will have to play defense again to muster easier buckets. The last thing this fragile team needs is to adopt Mike D'Antoni's seven seconds or less system. Or to return to Nellie ball. 

This team should seek transition buckets but only when the opportunities present themselves. D'Antoni would tell this squad to force up quick shots even if no openings existed and that style makes halfcourt defense a pipe dream.

A rewired and refocused Howard, an efficiently used Kidd and an attacking Nowitzki can keep this Dallas team dangerous. I would not call the Mavs a post-salad, has been, old folks squad just yet. Maybe those miles of veteran experience in the team's core can amount to something other than a postseason choke job.

However, the Mavs are kidding themselves if they think a swift coaching swap will fix years of emotional and psychological damage. When you lose three straight playoff series most favored you to win, and do so by folding with big leads and napping in the clutch, how can you find the confidence to clear that mental hurdle?

If things go sour for even a few games, say this team loses badly to a few lottery-bound squads in a row, expect the core's playoff futility jet lag to knock them out. The Dallas Mavericks are playoff contender for sure but a fragile one at best.