A fantasy point is a fantasy point. It doesn't matter if you get them from your quarterback, running back, or kicker: They all count.
I always draft a kicker in either the last or second-to-last round in my fantasy league, just as most experts advise. However, early in the season, I re-evaluate my kicker pick. Pre-draft projections are not as important as regular-season results.
By now, it's clear which offenses are going to score points, but many fantasy owners are still anchored to their pre-draft assumptions. With a wise move at this point in the season, you can easily capture a 20-30 point advantage over the rest of your league.
In this article, I'll show you how to pick a kicker and talk about some kickers whose ownership percentage no longer reflects their expected results.
How To Pick A Kicker
When picking a kicker, it's important first to consider the job they do: kicking. Josh Brown makes the occasional tackle, but the rest of the league just kicks.
Since kickers can't do anything to change the number of times their team gets into the red zone, when you're drafting a kicker, you're really drafting a piece of an offense.
It's like buying stock in the total number of points the team is going to score in a season. When the offense produces more points, the kicker scores more points...your stock goes up.
- B/R Ticket Guide
Before the season started, people made estimations about total points scored for the season. The New England Patriots, for instance, were expected to score a lot of points.
Now that we know Tom Brady isn't coming back this year, we must adjust our assumptions to reflect this new information. Stephen Gostkowski is going to score far fewer points this year than we previously expected, through no fault of his own. His team changed around him, and with it, his probability of scoring.
When you're picking a kicker, you want to buy stock in a team that is going to score lots of points. The Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, Cardinals, and Saints right now are the league's five highest-scoring offenses.
Whoever has the kicking job on these teams is likely to score more points than the rest of the league.
Look for high-powered offenses and teams playing well. This is fertile ground for kicking points.
Getting It Wrong
Matt Prater, one of the highest-scoring kickers in football, is only owned in 76 percent of leagues on a popular fantasy site. The leader at every other position has an ownership percentage in the high 90's. What gives? Why aren't more high-scoring kickers owned?
Because their triumphs almost never make the highlight film, kickers' achievements are largely ignored by the fantasy football community.
Neil Rackers plays for the Arizona Cardinals, one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL. He is owned in only 57 percent of leagues.
Taylor Mehlhaff, the rookie kicker for the high-powered Saints offense is almost completely unowned.
On the other hand, plenty of the wrong kickers are heavily owned. Shayne Graham is owned in 57 percent of leagues. I guess because the Bengals were a good team a few years back, owners are betting on the resurgence.
In 59 percent of leagues, somebody still has Stephen Gostkowski (NE). Did these owners somehow miss the Tom Brady news?
Shouldn't kickers from high-scoring teams be more owned than kickers from low- scoring teams?
What To Do
Player values change every day, and if you don't react to even the most dramatic changes, rest assured, your opponents will.
Ask yourself a question: What teams do you think are going to score this season? Then choose your kicker accordingly. Most importantly, be willing to change your opinion as new information comes to light.
Making good midseason adjustments improves your probability of victory.
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about 1 month ago
Good stuff...Sounds like some sort of discrimination from fantasy football players to the new kickers in the league
from about 1 month ago
It's not discrimination, people just don't think about it...or over think it. Lots of people try to pick kickers from teams that get to the red-zone frequently but don't score. Hoping for those 6 field goal games.
Thanks for reading and commenting. Have a great week!
about 1 month ago
I've got Robbie Gould as my kicker, it's been working out pretty well. He usually gets at least three field goals a week.
from about 1 month ago
There are guys like that out there. If your kicker is working for you, keep him. I meant this article for people who drafted a guy back in August and have never given it another thought.
Thanks for reading and becoming part of the discussion!
from about 1 month ago
Yea I basically chose Gould because I am a Bears fan.
about 1 month ago
i read somewhere once a while back that the difference between the top scoring fantasy kicker and the lowest scoring fantasy kicker is so low that it doesn't even matter who your fantasy kicker is. is that true?
from about 1 month ago
So far this year Matt Prater (DEN) is 40 fantasy points ahead of Matt Stover (BAL). This is only week six, so that's 6 2/3 points per week you'd get by having Prater.
There is a 10 point difference between the 10th kicker and the 20th kicker, 1 2/3 points per game. Have you ever lost a game by a point? It's less significant but still worth pursuing. Especially because most everyone else is asleep at the wheel.
Basically because lots of people have read what you have read, ignoring what you have read has even greater benefits.
What the writer meant to say in the piece that you read is the difference between top kicker performance and average kicker performance is lower than the difference between top and average performances at all other positions. This is true.
He probably went on to say that you should draft a kicker late, and that it's not worth holding on to more than one kicker on your roster, because you can gain more of an advantage on your opponent by allocating more of your resources to other areas. This is also true.
I think lots of people read pieces like this and said to themselves: "Ignore the kicker." This is a mistake.
Draft a kicker late does not mean you must also never think about kickers again.
Does that make sense?
from about 1 month ago
wow...that's good info...too bad it's falling mostly on deaf ears because i don't even play fantasy. haha. i was just kinda curious.
so, as adam sandler once said as billy madison, "a simple 'no' would've worked." thanks though!
from about 1 month ago
Well, other people might read it. Plus I can just cut and paste and use it as an article one day! It was long enough.
Have an awesome week. Thanks for reading again.
about 1 month ago
I LOVE this article. i always check the waiver wire for what kickers are doing hot, and on a high powered team.
I get a lot of crap from my buddies but Kaeding won me my game last night so maybe they'll shut up now.
Love it man. POTD.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the pick and the support. I got a lot of crap for drafting Nick Folk in the last round last year. So many people said who? I thought I was hanging out with a flock of owls.
This year somebody drafted Folk in the 10th round.
I started with Gramatica (last round...again) and picked up Prater after week one and everybody said "Who?"
from about 1 month ago
I just drafted Prater in the last round. It was more just a "take a chance" snag than anything though. Elam had been successful there, so I figured that Prater would do the same.
Good advice as usual, Buddy.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for commenting Jacob!
You're doing a great job keeping the conversation going. I appreciate all your insights.
about 1 month ago
i would be so pissed if i lost my week because of a damn kicker.
from about 1 month ago
It happens.
about 1 month ago
Great advice to anyone that's been asleep at the wheel. Prater and Elam have put up more Fantasy Points than ALL TE's (yes, including Witten, Gonzales, etc) and even have the 8th -20th WR's and 11th-20th RB's beat in the points catagory. Both were still available in most leagues for at least a few weeks into the seaon and are still available in many leagues. Not as dramatic, but often see the same mentality with Defenses.
Most guys don't look at it as a "kicker loss" unless their heading into Monday Night, needing 6 points with only their kicker left--and they post 5. Points are points, grab the low hanging fruit.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the comment. It's funny you mentioned the defense thing. That was last weeks subject.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/65795-fantasy-advice-how-to-tackle-defensive-scoring
Please take a look if you havent already seen it, you'll enjoy.
Thanks again!
about 1 month ago
Man Buddy,
You're ridiculous, I tell my guys I have the best fantasy guide ever and it's you. Want to help me draft in bball?
Cheers!!!
-Alex
from about 1 month ago
Never done a basketball draft. I wouldn't know where to begin.
Thanks for reading and the compliment.
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