Fantasy football is a game. All the football knowledge in the world isn't going to help you win unless you are willing to improve your game-playing skills. Human beings tend to process information in similar ways, and as such, we are prone to making similar mistakes.
While we all have heard the advice, "Never judge a book by its cover," the truth of the matter is we do this every day. We decide based on first impressions.
Ever decided not to hire a guy because he was five minutes late for a meeting? Or crossed the street to avoid having to talk to someone? Maybe left a bar because you got a bad vibe from the patrons?
These feelings are natural, but they don't always lead to the best decisions. What's worse is we humans tend to hold on to these first impressions, despite all subsequent evidence to the contrary. Modern decision theorists refer to this phenomenon as anchoring.
In business, anchoring causes us to hire and promote the wrong people. In fantasy football, the phenomenon causes owners to keep the wrong players on their rosters, because before the season started there were high hopes for these players' numbers.
This article examines a real-world, fantasy football example, where anchoring is affecting the decision-making of vast numbers of owners. If you can free your mind from these chains, you can score more points over time than most of your competitors.
Laurence Maroney (RB) New England Patriots
Before the season started, Laurence Maroney was expected to be the feature back on the highest-scoring offense in the league. Maroney was a standout in the second half of last season, and the Patriots were returning most of their record-breaking offense.
We all know what happened to Tom Brady in Week One. After five weeks of play, we can be assured that this Patriots team isn't going to score very many points.
Even before his injury, Maroney was far from featured on this low-scoring team. He shared carries with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LaMont Jordan.
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