UFC 129 Fight Card: The Best Main Card Predictions on the Internet

Jordy McElroyApr 27, 2011

The Ultimate Fighting Championship comes to Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada with an event that is expected to be the largest in UFC history.

UFC 129 features the long-awaited welterweight championship bout between Georges St-Pierre and Jake Shields.

Arguably the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, St-Pierre looks to secure his sixth consecutive title defense against Shields, who hasn't lost a fight in over six years.

In the co-main event, the UFC welcomes Brazilian wrecking ball, Jose Aldo. Along with Anderson Silva and St-Pierre, Aldo is easily considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

He'll defend his newly-acquired UFC featherweight title against Canadian top contender Mark Hominick.

The stacked card also features a bout between UFC Hall-of-Famer Randy Couture and former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida. Couture has stated that this will be his final MMA bout.

The time has come once again for you to feast on some manly induced knowledge in preparation for the upcoming fights. Snatch a cold beverage out the fridge and get comfortable. It's breakdown time.

As always, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

(SportsHaze.com)

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Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields

1 of 6

Nick Caron

Key Victories:

St. Pierre (B.J. Penn, Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves, Sean Sherk, Frank Trigg, Karo Parisyan, Matt Serra, Jason Miller, Dan Hardy, Jay Hieron)

Shields (Dan Henderson, Yushin Okami, Martin Kampmann, Carlos Condit, Paul Daley, Jason Miller, Hayato Sakurai, Mike Pyle, Robbie Lawler, Nick Thompson, Renato Verissimo)

Forecast:

Casual fans may not understand the magnitude of this championship bout. While Georges St-Pierre has been building a legacy under the bright lights of the UFC, Jake Shields has been doing the same in multiple organizations around the world. This is a dream match for hardcore fans.

The moment has arrived. Shields looks to topple one of the greatest fighters of all time this Saturday night when he finally meets St-Pierre.

Fighting out of Montreal, Quebec, Canada, St-Pierre is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Kyokushin, and Gaidojutsu. He trains at a variety of facilities including Jackson's MMA and Tristar Gym. Some of his training partners have included Jon Jones, Rashad Evans, and Nate Marquardt.

Since regaining the UFC welterweight title in April 2008, St-Pierre has put forth five consecutive title defenses, which is two shy of Matt Hughes' record. Despite lacking a competitive wrestling background, many credit St-Pierre for being the best wrestler in the sport.

At UFC 124, he showcased his standup skills by busting up Josh Koscheck en route to a unanimous decision.

Born in Mountain Ranch, California, Shields was a two-time All-American at Cuesta College and a U.S. qualifier for FILA Nationals and World Team Trials in the junior and university men's division. Along with scrap pack teammates Nick Diaz, Nate Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez, Shields trains under Cesar Gracie, who gave him his black belt in February 2007. He was an ADCC bronze medalist in 2005.

Shields hasn't lost a professional MMA bout in over 6 years, and he is riding a 15 fight win streak. He is the former Strikeforce middleweight champion and EliteXC welterweight champion. In his UFC debut in October 2010, he scraped by in a split decision victory over Martin Kampmann.

Keys to Victory :

Even though St-Pierre has the ability to take this fight wherever he wants, he needs to keep the fight standing, utilize an effective jab to keep Shields at bay, and be ready to defend plenty of takedowns. Shields is a persistent wrestler that never deviates from his strengths.

St-Pierre has to be careful in every ground position, especially if Shields is hurt. He can't rush in carelessly looking for a quick finish. Critics have blasted St-Pierre for his lack of finishes, but Shields isn't the kind of guy to test the waters against.

If an opportunity to finish opens, St-Pierre should take it, but he can't allow himself to step outside his norm by becoming desperate.

Shields is too dangerous of a submission artist for careless mistakes.

On the feet, St. Pierre will have a definitive advantage. Shields has never been known for his striking, and he certainly better avoid trying to outbox St-Pierre in this bout. He needs to close the gap on the feet with punches and constantly pressure St-Pierre with takedowns.

Can Shields get the fight to the ground?

The answer to this question could determine the outcome of this fight. Whether he takes St-Pierre down or gets taken down himself, Shields has to find a way to drag this fight to the floor. This will be easier said than done. St-Pierre has arguably the best takedown defense in the sport.

Prediction:

We hear it all the time. "This guy will be St-Pierre's toughest test." Against a guy like Shields, you may want to heed those words. Shields is a winner, and even against stacked odds, he always finds a way to win.

Still, winning is going to be a tough thing to do against St-Pierre, who possesses the tools to dictate the action of this bout. Shields is overmatched in the striking and possibly even the wrestling department. It all comes down to his submission game.

Will he be able to capitalize off a St-Pierre mistake and latch on a submission?

Look for Shields to be persistent with takedowns, but St-Pierre will thwart every attempt. Shields will never get the chance work his BJJ as the brunt of the battle is fought on the feet. The first round will be St-Pierre pumping out multiple jabs.

In the second, St-Pierre will land a nice one-two piece that puts Shields down. Rogers Centre will explode in excitement as the French Canadian pounces on his wobbly foe and finishes the bout with vicious ground strikes.

Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick

2 of 6

Nick Caron

Key Victories:

Aldo (Urijah Faber, Manvel Gamburyan, Mike Brown, Jonathan Brookins, Cub Swanson)

Hominick (Yves Edwards, Jorge Gurgel, Leonard Garcia)

Forecast:

Widely considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, featherweight champion Jose Aldo is set to defend his throne in his UFC debut against top contender Mark Hominick.

For those unfamiliar with the new UFC champion, his name is often compared to Georges St-Pierre and Anderson Silva.

Hominick will have his work cut out for him if he hopes to topple this featherweight giant.

Fighting out of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Aldo is a dangerous Muay Thai specialist and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He trains alongside Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, the Nogueira brothers, and Junior Dos Santos at the famous Black House gym.

In 19 wins, Aldo has finished 13 by KO. He was the last WEC featherweight champion, and he put forth two consecutive title defenses before the merger. At WEC 51, he knocked out Manny Gamburyan in the second round via ground strikes.

Fighting out of London, Ontario, Canada, Hominick trains at Adrenaline Training Center, a respected gym that also includes MMA veterans Sam Stout and Chris Horodecki. He is a Kickboxer and Muay Thai artist with nine career KO victories.

Currently riding a five-fight win streak, Hominick finished four of those bouts by TKO and submission. At UFC: Fight for the Troops 2, he earned a first round TKO stoppage over George Roop.

Keys to Victory:

Against Hominick, Aldo may have to show some degree of patience. Hominick utilizes a lot of footwork, which makes him incredibly difficult to catch in the open. Aldo can't allow himself to become frustrated in trying to finish early. He needs to use his leg kicks to set up his offense.

Hominick is a better grappler than some give him credit for. Aldo better be prepared to defend takedowns. As long as Aldo stays off the cage, he should be fine in the open. Hominick is a great grappler, but he is far from being considered a world-class wrestler. With that said, he is crafty in a multitude of positions, and Aldo will have to stay on his toes.

Hominick needs to be aggressive and take the fight to Aldo. To some, this may sound like a foolhardy plan, but like Anderson Silva, Aldo has proven himself to be a master at picking opponents apart on the feet. Hominick can't sit back and take leg kick after leg kick, while simultaneously allowing Aldo to settle into a rhythm.

If things get uncomfortable on the feet, Hominick should look for takedowns. He has the striking to keep Aldo guessing and possibly set up opportunities for shots in the open. The ideal takedown would be Hominick closing the distance, pressing Aldo against the cage, and nabbing takedowns from the clinch.

Throughout the fight, Hominick's survival will come down to intelligent offense and strong defense. The margin for error against a dangerous striker like Aldo is unbelievably slim.

Prediction:

Hominick is a significant underdog, but he is certainly a worthy contender. His excellent striking and great footwork could drag this battle into deeper waters, but fans shouldn't expect an upset in this one.

A new mainstream star will be born, as Aldo bests the exchanges and picks up the third-round TKO victory over a game Hominick.

Lyoto Machida vs. Randy Couture

3 of 6

Nick Caron

Key Victories:

Couture (Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Vitor Belfort, Tim Sylvia, Kevin Randleman, Jeremy Horn, Gabriel Gonzaga, Brandon Vera, Mark Coleman)

Machida (Mauricio Rua, Rashad Evans, Tito Ortiz, B.J. Penn, Thiago Silva, Rich Franklin, Kazuhiro Nakamura, Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, Stephan Bonnar)

Forecast:

If two major title fights isn't enough to convince you to see this incredible card, Randy Couture's final MMA bout may be enough to push you over the edge. According to "Captain America" himself, this is it folks. Couture will grace the octagon for a final time against the enigmatic and ever-elusive Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida.

Fighting out of Las Vegas, Nevada, Couture trains alongside Forrest Griffin, Vitor Belfort, Gray Maynard and Tyson Griffin at Xtreme Couture. He is a two-time NCAA Division I wrestling runner-up at Oklahoma State University, a three-time All-American and a three-time U.S. Olympic team alternate.

A three-time UFC heavyweight champion and two-time light heavyweight champion, Couture is the first man in UFC history to ever hold titles in multiple divisions. He was inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame on June 24, 2006. At UFC 118, he embarrassed boxer James Toney in a first-round submission victory.

Born in Salvador, Brazil, Machida is a member of Team Black House, a gym that is loaded with world-class talent like Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers, Jose Aldo, Junior Dos Santos and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza.

His awkward style includes Machida Karate, Shotokan Karate (3rd dan black belt), and Brazilian jiu-jitsu (black belt). Most consider Machida to be the most elusive fighter in MMA history. He is shockingly coming off back to back losses to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.

Keys to Victory:

Couture has to find a way to limit Machida's mobility. He needs to use his footwork and boxing to cut off angles and close the distance. If he can trap Machida against the cage, Couture should be able slow the fight down and work his dirty boxing.

The most dangerous part about Machida's game is his ability to effectively counter on his heels. Couture has to utilize good head movement to protect his chin as he marches forward. Even though Couture needs to pressure Machida, a certain degree of patience is needed to close the gap.

Instead of rushing forward, Couture should command the center, feel out his range, and walk Machida towards the cage with strikes.

As long as Machida can keep his back off the cage, he should be in good shape. Couture is a clinch master, and his dirty boxing is legendary. Machida needs to explode in and out of range during exchanges and circle off when the distance closes.

He has to avoid underestimating Couture's striking power. Despite his age, Couture is a strong light heavyweight with knockout power.

Machida needs to avoid idling for openings to counter and show a sense of urgency. This really hurt him in his split decision loss to Jackson. Couture is one of the most intelligent fighters in the history of the sport. Machida could find himself in for a long night if he waits on Couture to make a mistake.

Prediction:

Those completely discounting Couture's chances haven't taken the time to break down the styles of this light heavyweight tilt. Machida finally showed chinks in his armor against Jackson, and Couture has the skills bring about some déjà vu.

Against Machida, Jackson was able to use his boxing to close the distance and control the fight in the clinch, a strategy that Couture has used throughout his entire career.

At 47 years of age, Couture is technically better than he's ever been, but unfortunately, no mortal human can escape the clutches of Father Time. While Couture's technique improves with age, his body's ability to absorb punishment steadily decreases.

Will fans get to see a final miracle in the storied career of Randy Couture?

The chance for a miracle is greater than some think, but it's hard not to like Machida's chances. Coming off consecutive losses, Machida needs this win just as much as Couture. Look for "The Dragon" to connect with a left cross near the end of the first round and close the book on a historic career.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz

4 of 6

Nick Caron

Key Victories:

Matyushenko (Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Pedro Rizzo, Jason Lambert, Yuki Kondo, Travis Wiuff, Eliot Marshall, Tim Boetsch)

Brilz (Tim Boetsch, Eric Schafer, Jason MacDonald)

Forecast:

After nearly securing a major upset over light heavyweight contender Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Jason Brilz finally makes his octagon return. It's been about a year since Brilz's war with Nogueira. He hopes to rebound with a big victory over a notable name, and the UFC has no qualms in obliging him with wily veteran Vladimir Matyushenko.

Born in Rečyca, Belarus, Matyushenko is a freestyle wrestler and boxer. At Lassen College, he was a two-time National Junior College wrestling champion. Newer fans may not know him, but Matyushenko is a true veteran of the sport.

In September 2001, he competed against MMA legend Tito Ortiz for the UFC light heavyweight title. Ortiz walked away with the decision, but Matyushenko rebounded with three huge wins over Rogerio Nogueira, Pedro Rizzo and Travis Wiuff. Matyushenko was also the very first International Fight League light heavyweight champion.

At UFC 122, he earned a first-round TKO stoppage over Alexandre Ferreira.

Fighting out of Omaha, Nebraska, Brilz is a former collegiate wrestler at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, where he was a four-year letter winner and a three-time Academic All-American. He trains out of Omaha's Elite Performance gym.

With half of his MMA wins coming by submission, Brilz has shown great submission I.Q. to go along with his wrestling pedigree. At UFC 114, he lost a controversial split decision to Nogueira in a "Fight of the Night" performance.

Keys to Victory:

Matyushenko needs to jab and circle to stay out of the burly clutches of Brilz. This bout will come down to the Belarusian's footwork and his ability to stay off his back. Brilz is a persistent wrestler, who will continuously push the pace with takedowns even after being denied.

The clinch is one of Brilz's favorite positions. While Matyushenko can hold his own in the open, he needs to avoid getting pinned against the cage. Brilz is great at seeking out dominant positions and controlling the fight. Matyushenko has to best the standup exchanges and use his wrestling to either grab takedowns of his own or keep the bout upright.

Despite being a good wrestler, Brilz doesn't really have an explosive outside shot. He's going to have a tough time catching Matyushenko in the open, unless his shots are perfectly timed. Instead of telegraphing random takedowns, Brilz needs to use his boxing to close the distance. This doesn't mean to engage Matyushenko in a standup slugfest.

He needs to pressure the former IFL champion with punches and trap him against the fence, where he can work short strikes and look for takedowns. Matyushenko is a durable fighter, and this bout will likely go the distance. Whether he's against the cage or in top position, Brilz has to suffocate Matyushenko throughout the bout.

Prediction:

This won't be the most exciting bout due to the style matchup, but fans should expect another close decision. Brilz will be on the losing end once again as "The Janitor" does just enough work to earn the split decision.

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson

5 of 6

Nick Caron

Key Victories:

Henderson (Donald Cerrone, Jamie Varner, Shane Roller, Anthony Njokuani)

Bocek (Dustin Hazelett, David Bielkheden, Alvin Robinson)

Forecast:

In the main card opener, former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson makes his UFC debut against Canadian Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist Mark Bocek.

While Henderson is considered the favorite in this bout, Bocek's main card appearance isn't just to appease Canadian fans. He is an underrated lightweight with the skills needed to pull out the upset. With that said, Henderson will be seeking redemption after getting Neo'd on by Anthony Pettis.

The video of Pettis running up the cage and landing a Matrix-like roundhouse kick straight to Henderson's dome has more hits than a Rick Astley video.

Fighting out of Glendale, Arizona, Henderson is a brown belt in BJJ and a black belt in Taekwondo. He's a former collegiate wrestler at Dana College in Blair, Nebraska, where he was a two-time NAIA All-American.

Alongside TUF Season 8 winner Efrain Escudero, Henderson trains at the MMA Lab. In 12 wins, he has ended eight bouts by submission. After winning the WEC title in January 2010, Henderson managed to put forth one successful title defense before losing a unanimous decision to Pettis in December 2010.

Born in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Bocek is a black belt in BJJ under Joao Roque. He has studied under a variety of major BJJ names, including Rickson and Renzo Gracie. Since joining the UFC in July 2007, Bocek has compiled a 5-3 record, with his only losses coming to Frankie Edgar, Jim Miller, and Mac Danzig.

At UFC 124, he earned "Submission of the Night" after finishing Dustin Hazelett in the first round with a mounted triangle choke.

Keys to Victory:

Against Bocek, Henderson won't be able to enjoy the significant advantage in the grappling department that he's used to. While Bocek is known for his BJJ prowess, people tend to overlook his wrestling. He has taken down respected ground players like Jim Miller and Mac Danzig.

Henderson needs to keep a good base and avoid overreaching in the standup exchanges. Bocek will be looking for any openings to secure the takedown. Henderson has to keep his hips square, and be prepared to react whenever Bocek changes levels.

Even though both men have decent stand-up skills, neither fighter is known for their striking. Henderson has to find a way to win the exchanges and use his boxing to set up takedowns of his own.

Bocek needs to be aggressive on the feet and force Henderson to counter. Henderson hasn't shown the ability to strike on his heels, and he sometimes becomes preoccupied with wiping his hair from his face in the middle of exchanges. Bocek has to force Henderson on his heels and work for takedowns.

We haven't seen Henderson fend much from his back. Bocek has to find a way to drag the former champion into unfamiliar territory.

When working for takedowns, Bocek needs to watch out for Henderson's guillotine. Half of Henderson's eight submission wins have come by the dreaded choke. This will make things even trickier for Bocek in dragging the fight to the floor.

Bocek has to also be on the lookout for takedowns. Henderson is a relentless wrestler with great top control. If taken down, Bocek has to avoid idling and constantly search for submissions and opportunities to pop back to his feet.

Prediction:

Unlike Henderson's nickname, his transition to the big show won't be smooth. He'll get the job done, but it'll be a nail-biter as the judges render their verdict––29-28 across the board for Henderson.