Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Lowe's Motor Speedway

Thank you very much, Carl Edwards, for “really trying to screw up everyone’s day” at Talladega last week, because you kinda screwed up mine too.

My lead pick, Jimmie Johnson, wound up 9th (the worst any of my lead picks has finished in the Chase). Sleeper Kevin Harvick wound up 20th, and dark horse Greg Biffle wound up 24th, both victims of Edwards’ aggressive bump drafting. (At least I didn’t pick Jeff Gordon or Denny Hamlin. Yikes!)

Thankfully, without the high speeds, restrictor plates, and unpredictability of Talladega, Charlotte is a much easier track to pick drivers on. Charlotte is built to the same specifications as Atlanta and Texas, and the three tracks combine for seven races per year (counting the All-Star event). For that reason, Charlotte’s a lot easier to predict than Talladega, and hopefully I’ll have better luck this week.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Charlotte:

1. Jimmie Johnson

Johnson has five wins and 11 top 10s in 14 races at Charlotte. He’s got three wins and six top 10s in the last six races this year.

If those two factoids aren’t enough for you, the racetrack is named after Lowe’s, Johnson’s longtime sponsor. The No. 48 team always tries a little harder to win for their sponsor at Charlotte, and with Johnson as hot as he is, this weekend should be no exception.

2. Carl Edwards

Cousin Carl lost all his momentum from the past couple months with his wreck at Talladega. Fortunately, Charlotte is one of his best tracks, with an average finish of 7.6 in seven starts, six of which were top 10 finishes.

There should be no reason that Edwards’ team can’t rebound this weekend, but after last weekend, he’s not the most well-liked driver in the garage area.

3. Greg Biffle

With only four top 10s in 11 starts at Lowe’s, Biffle isn’t exactly a popular pick this weekend. However, of those four top 10s, two came in 2005, when the No. 16 was the hottest team in the garage, and one came in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, where he finished 2nd. If Biffle’s team stays as hot as it has been, another great run at Charlotte may happen.

4. Jeff Burton

Burton’s finished in the top 10 at Charlotte in 14 out of 29 starts, with wins in 1999 and 2001. Since joining Richard Childress Racing, his average finish is a stellar 8.0 in 8 starts at Charlotte. As for momentum, Burton hasn’t finished worse than 9th in the past 5 races.

5. Clint Bowyer

Bowyer’s only decent finish at Charlotte was his second in this race last year, finishing .579 seconds behind Jeff Gordon for the win. Excluding that race, Bowyer has never finished on the lead lap at Charlotte, and only led three laps in this race in 2006.

Bowyer still has momentum from finishing fifth at Talladega last weekend, and they’ll have to cash it all in to have a chance this weekend.

6. Kevin Harvick

Harvick finished second and eighth here in 2001, but ever since it’s been a downward spiral. His average finish of 20.7 at Charlotte is second worst of the 12 Chase drivers.

He’s only led two laps here, none since 2003, and has only finished on the lead lap three times since 2001. Harvick’s anger after last week is another factor: will driving angry help or hurt him? After his altercation with Carl Edwards, it may not help.

7. Tony Stewart

Smoke has plenty of momentum from last week’s (unfairly awarded… sorry) win at Talladega. His two-car team has secured sponsorship for next year, so his mind is a little clearer.

Now Stewart heads to Charlotte, a track at which he’s led laps at every year of his career except 2004 and 2006. He hasn’t ripped off top five's here since the early stages of his career, but he always runs up front for at least part of the race.

It’s all about what time he gets there and if he can hold on.

8. Jeff Gordon

Gordon has five wins here in 31 starts, including one in this race last year.

Since 2002, his average finish is 7.4 in races which he’s completed. Granted, Gordon didn’t finish either Charlotte race in 2005 or 2006, and crashed out of last year’s Coca-Cola 600.

If he doesn’t have bad luck like he did last week at Talladega, Gordon should be a contender.

9. Matt Kenseth

Kenseth has led at least one lap in every Charlotte race from the 2006 Coca-Cola 600, inclusive. However, he hasn’t won at the track since the 2000 Coca-Cola 600, the first win of his Cup career.

Eight top 10 finishes in 18 starts, nearly a 1 to 1 ratio of good finishes to bad, compares well with Burton and Gordon. Kenseth could surprise this weekend, if the No. 17 team doesn’t let last week’s disappointment at Talladega get to them.

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

In 18 starts, Junebug has nine top 10s but no wins at Charlotte. He hasn’t done too well in the Chase so far, finishing fifth, 24th, 13th, and 28th in four races.

On the bright side, he led 79 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this year, eventually finishing fifth. This weekend could be a shot for Junior to rebound and put himself back in the title hunt.

11. Kyle Busch

Busch won the Nationwide race this weekend, but he’s had terrible luck on the Cup side of things for a few weeks now. He also has the worst average finish of any Chase driver at Charlotte, a paltry 23.3, with 3rd-place finishes in his past two starts the only bright spots.

One never knows when a driver will break out of a slump, however, and this could be the weekend for Shrub.

12. Denny Hamlin

Forget the stats for a minute. Hamlin isn’t up to 100 percent health after a hard hit at Talladega. To expect him to run well this weekend after sitting out the Nationwide race isn’t a smart idea.

He almost skipped the Cup race, too, for the sake of his health. He’ll probably ride around this weekend, but not do much in the way of anything spectacular.

So, who would I pick to win this weekend? I hate picking Jimmie Johnson again, but the numbers don’t lie. This is the No. 48 team’s territory, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Jeff Burton, given his recent string of good luck and solid track record here, may also have a chance to win. For a dark horse, I’d suggest Kyle Busch—it’s about time he breaks out of his recent slump, and Biffle’s surprise win at Loudon suggests that nothing is impossible.