UFC 129 Fight Card: Why Randy Couture Is Biggest Fight of Lyoto Machida's Career

With each passing hour, it seems more and more likely that UFC 129 will be Randy Couture's swan song in the UFC. In case you missed it, Couture has indicated that win or lose, his April 30 fight with Lyoto Machida will probably be his last.

Only time will tell how this plays out (after all, he's made such proclamations before). In the meantime, though, the announcement has served to overshadow and perhaps intensify the challenging situation in which his opponent finds himself.

Machida stands to lose a lot more here than just a fight, or his high-rent space in the penthouse of the light heavyweight division. This is a career-defining moment for "The Dragon."

It will help him and everyone else determine not whether he has the talent to be great (because that's been settled), but whether he has the wherewithal to pick himself up off the mat.

It feels like a lot more than two years have passed since Machida was the fighter to beat at 205, and maybe the entire sport. Out of respect for the reams of parchment and scads of electrons who have already given their lives in the effort, I won't rehash the usual bouquets about his karate background and his elusiveness and so on. If you're interested, you can Google it.

And in any event, it's next Saturday that I'm focused on. And for Machida's sake, I hope he's focused on it, too. Because it's the biggest fight of his career. I know he's had some big ones, but this one looms largest, and it's not particularly close.

So why is it such a big deal?

As far as the fight itself, we'll probably get a definitive answer on Machida's mat skills and takedown defense. In the wrestling realm, he has previously succeeded only in passing weak tests (Sokoudjou) and dodging weaker bullets (a knockout-happy Rashad Evans). 

Couture will not be either. He will try to cut off the ring, smush Machida against the cage and force him to fight his way out. In some respects, Couture is like a classic power pitcher...he brings the heat, and we'll all see if you can hit it.

Machida knows what's coming. Couture knows he knows it's coming. The arena will know Randy knows Machida knows it's coming. The only question mark is what Machida will do about it.

And that's actually a pretty good metaphor for what really makes this fight such a great test for Machida. As is often case, the bigger battleground is the one between the ears. 

We saw Machida handle success fairly well when he ripped off eight consecutive wins to start his UFC career. But now, he's lost his last two—and his last W came thanks to a roundly criticized judges' decision.

Secondly, and this is just my own opinion, but Machida appears more comfortable as the challenger. At this point, though, the challenger's cloak of invisibility is permanently gone. Machida will never again sneak up on anyone, psychologically or stylistically.

Furthermore, Machida has shown a tendency toward niceness, for lack of a better term. He's the good guy, and that's terrific. But against Couture, with his literal and metaphorical back against the wall, this is the time, if there ever was one, for Machida to bring some nasty.

Which brings me back to Couture's retirement. Machida is a comfortable favorite in the fight, but oddly enough, he is also in the more vulnerable position. He doesn't have much to gain and a whole shipload to lose.

Couture's situation is exactly the opposite. Add to that the fact that Machida, probably for the first time, will be the near-universal bad guy in this fight. Who isn't going to be rooting for Randy Couture to go out a winner? I mean, Anderson Silva's going to be rooting for that.

It all adds up to a high potential for tightness and discomfort for a fighter who, from my armchair, seems especially prone to getting tight and uncomfortable. How is he going to respond in the face of this multi-fronted adversity?

Machida is at his best as a fighter when he is loose and actually, you know, fighting. And if ever there's a time for him to fight, that time is now.

Stay with Bleacher Report for more news, analysis and updates from UFC 129: St-Pierre Vs. Shields.