Unrelenting Realism: What to Expect for and from Iowa Football in 2011

Spring practices have begun, so it is now officially the 2011 season.  Whatever happened in 2010 can finally be put behind us and we can look forward at what's to come. 

This is always a difficult time to predict exactly what's to come.  So much of our thoughts revolve around what happened the year before and the familiar faces we know are coming back (or not coming back, as the case may be). 

Virtually everything is speculation.  That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it can be confusing.

The speculations can also get out of hand.  There are those that will see the brightest side possible and will take it well beyond what's realistic to expect.  At the same time, there are those that will preach doom and gloom, looking only at the worst-case-scenarios and will paint an unrealistically bleak outlook.

The truth so often resides somewhere in the middle.

The Losses Are Severe

Let's be honest about this.  The Hawkeyes are losing some pretty big names that have contributed a lot to the program.

Offensively, the Hawkeyes have lost three-year-starter QB Ricky Stanzi.  While his tenure had about as many lows (statistically speaking) as it has highs, there's no denying the leadership he brought to the team.  You also can't easily replace the quantity and quality of experience that's lost with his departure.

Along with Stanzi, the Hawkeyes have said good-bye to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos.  DJK may have left under less-than-ideal conditions, but he still left as the all-time leading receiver. 

Players like DJK only come around once in a great while and you can't realistically expect that someone else will just step right in and pick up where he left off.  It rarely works that way, especially on a team that doesn't traditionally bring in the tallest, fastest, or highest rated receiver recruits. 

Iowa will also turn to to true sophomore Marcus Coker for the running duties after defections and issues have rendered the running back corps paper thin.

TE Allen Reisner has graduated.  The offensive line loses a few quality contributors. 

In many ways, the Hawkeye attack will look like a totally different group when they take the field in September.

Defensively, it gets worse.

DE Adrian Clayborn has graduated and took Karl Klug and Christian Ballard with him.  Heading into 2010, this was one of the most celebrated and anticipated line squads in the country. 

It didn't pan out quite as well as fans hoped in 2010, but that's still a ton (almost literally) of talent that won't be wearing Hawkeye Gold and Black this season.  Their loss has to negatively impact the nation's sixth best run defense from 2010.

Making matters worse, Brett Greenwood graduated and Tyler Sash decided to forgo his senior season in favor of a shot at NFL glory.  The two represented one of the best safety duos in Iowa history and now neither will be back.

There's just no getting around the fact that the Hawkeyes are losing some very good players and that's reason enough to temper any expectations for the 2011 season.

There's Quality Coming Back

Don't let the losses mentioned above lead you into thinking that the Hawkeyes are in a full-on rebuilding year, though.  Sure, they've got some big holes to fill, but they've got some tools coming back that can do just that.

Marcus Coker may be a true sophomore, but he's already proved his worth.  In the 2010 Insight Bowl, Coker carried the ball 33 times for 219 yards.  What's arguably even more impressive is that he carried the ball only nine times but grabbed 70 yards (7.78 yards-per-carry) and a touchdown against Ohio State—one of the better run defenses in the nation. 

Marvin McNutt also comes back at receiver and brings a fair amount of experience and success with him.  Last year, McNutt led the team in receptions (53) and pulled down eight touchdowns. 

Along with McNutt, Iowa brings back Keenan Davis.  Davis has yet to break out as a star for the Hawkeyes, but he has shown great potential and pulled down 11 passes last year, averaging 11.91 yards-per-catch.

The O-line returns a lot of talent and experience as well, and Hawk fans know how important that is to Kirk Ferentz's system.  Adam Gettis played very well last year and will come back for his senior season.  With him will be standout Riley Reiff and returning center James Ferentz. 

This group shouldn't take much of a step backward, if they take one at all.

Defensively, Iowa returns a pair of excellent corner backs in Micah Hyde and Shaun Prater.  They also bring back James Morris, who emerged as a solid linebacker last season.  Tyler Nielsen will also be there to potentially create a quality linebacker corps.  That was something of a sore spot on the team a year ago.

Mike Daniels also emerged as a star of the D-line last year.  Broderick Binns will also come back to help him anchor that line that is losing so many key players.  Daniels may not be Adrian Clayborn.  He could be better.

With an experienced offensive line and a strong runner to work behind them, Iowa's offense could be reminiscent of the 2008 squad that went 9-4 and beat South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.  

Toss into that mix a couple of decent-to-good receivers and there's enough balance to keep opponents on their toes. 

The defensive line may not take as big a step backward as many are predicting and the secondary might actually be improved over last year.  At least, they might be in certain areas.

It might not be a national title run this team will be on, but don't automatically assume that they're going to settle into a rebuilding funk that will leave them completely out of the conference discussion this coming year.

Surprise!

Does anybody remember the projections for the 2009 season?  Let me give you just a taste:

College Football News predicted Iowa to go 8-4.  They said the season could come undone if "Hampton isn't a star, and if the defense really can't replace King and Kroul." They also said that Stanzi had to minimize the interceptions.

Hampton was a non-factor (injury) and it's arguable whether Klug and Ballard really "replaced King and Kroul" on the interior of the D-line.  They were very good, don't get me wrong.  But were they like King and Kroul?  I don't think so.

As for Stanzi minimizing interceptions?  Um...yeah.  Didn't happen.

Still, it didn't matter.  Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher came out of nowhere to provide a solid rush attack.  Ricky Stanzi had a horrible TD-to-INT ratio (17-to-15), but was absolutely brilliant when he needed to be.

Adrian Clayborn emerged as more than just a solid veteran at defensive end.  He turned out to be an All-Star.  Broderick Binns proved to be a great addition to the other side and Klug/Ballard did their jobs in the middle, making Iowa's D-line something really exciting. 

CFN didn't get it wrong.  They accurately noted that McNutt could be a big addition to the receiver corps and that Clayborn could be a big deal.  They accurately noted that Pat Angerer could be a star at linebacker.

They just couldn't completely predict how good Clayborn would be, how much A.J. Edds would mean to the linebackers and what new faces would emerge.  Who could?

It's become something of a hallmark of Iowa football.  Just when you think you're getting a handle on who will do what, someone new steps up and makes you wonder "where did they come from?!" 

At the same time, the exact opposite can be argued about 2010. 

Clayborn was supposed to lead one of the best defensive lines in the nation that was supposed to terrorize opponents from the get-go.  They were fantastic against the run, but never did really pan out as a group that created nightmares to opposing quarterbacks and/or running backs. 

The offense was supposed to shine with DJK, McNutt, Wegher and Robinson, and Stanzi all returning for another go 'round.  Hampton was also to be back in the mix, making it a deep and dangerous running trio.

Stanzi was statistically good, but couldn't pull out those heroic final drives that had made 2009 so exciting.  Hampton only returned for a few games before he was injured again and lost for the rest of the season.  Wegher never stepped foot back on the field.  DJK and McNutt were both good, but they didn't quite make the high-flying duo fans had hoped for. 

It just didn't quite come together until the hopes for the season were already dashed, the regular season was finished and they were trying desperately just to salvage something positive from a disappointing showing on the year. 

With Iowa, you never really know what you're going to get until they take the field, and usually even then you don't know until they get into conference play.

So, What Should We Expect?

Look for the defensive line to once again replace rather than rebuild.  Daniels is finally ready to shine, Binns will keep those Sasquatch arms batting down balls and expect the rest of the line to hold their own.

Look for the linebacker corps to be better.  Injuries hindered their production last year, but they also got Morris onto the field earlier than he might have otherwise.  That experience could translate into a stellar 2011 season for him and the rest of the backers will come along for the ride.

Expect the pass defense to hold steady.  As Al Namias IV mentioned, it's entirely possible that Micah Hyde or Shaun Prater could move to safety to help replace Sash and/or Greenwood.  Whether they do or not, there are going to be two solid pass defenders in the secondary and a couple of relatively inexperienced players that will be struggling to make their impact on the team. 

Expect the offensive line to do a good job of making holes for Marcus Coker.  Along with that, expect Coker to look a little like Shonne Greene as he bowls over opposing defenders.  Don't necessarily expect the same ultimate result, but it should look a little familiar.

Expect the pass game to work slowly.  Right now the assumption is that James Vandenberg will be the replacement for Ricky Stanzi.  The job is his to lose, but I'm not entirely convinced he's a lock to keep it. 

Whoever ultimately spends the most time under center, don't expect the Hawkeyes to rely too heavily on them, if at all possible.  With Coker in the backfield, they'll have the benefit of working the new QB in gently and will take that opportunity.

Finally, expect the unexpected.  Someone who is flying under the radar will surface as a rising star.  Someone else is likely to fade back into the shadows.  That's Iowa football.  Just expect there to be surprises.

The Schedule Helps

I'm not at all ashamed to say that the schedule might just be the saving grace for the Hawkeyes this season.  It's just the kind of schedule that can help Iowa get their feet under them and become the team they want to be.

That doesn't mean it's a complete walk in the park.  After taking on Tennessee Tech, the Hawkeyes do have to travel to Ames to take on in-state rival, Iowa State.  That game is rarely as easy as it may look on the scoreboard.

Following that, they return "home" to face Pitt, who beat them 21-20 the last time they met (2008) and finished last season with an 8-5 record.

After a home date with Louisiana-Monroe, Iowa travels east to take on Penn State in Beaver Stadium.  That's never an easy battle and won't be any better this year.

They come back home to take on Northwestern, who has defeated Iowa the last three years straight.  They follow that up with a home date against Indiana and a road date to Minnesota. 

The Hawks come back home to take on Brady Hoke's Michigan Wolverines and follow that up with a match against Mark Dantonio's Spartans. 

They'll go on the road to take on Purdue, then end the season in Lincoln against new-rival Nebraska Cornhuskers. 

The Hawks could come out of their OOC potion of the schedule undefeated, but might have a couple of fights on their hands along the way.  Missing Ohio State and Wisconsin are a couple of great breaks.  Missing Illinois might not be a bad thing either.

Penn State can never be considered a "gimme" and Northwestern has become a thorn in Iowa's side.  Playing at Nebraska is rough and you can't count out either of the Michigan teams. 

However, virtually every team on their schedule is beatable.  Michigan will still be working in the new coach and his version of the system.  Michigan State will be missing some key defensive components and it's at Kinnick Stadium. 

Northwestern has been a thorn, but they can't keep that up forever, can they?  Indianan and Minnesota are both very beatable, especially since the Hoosiers are now without Ben Chappell and the Gophers are without Adam Weber. 

Purdue is always a wild card, but Iowa should have enough talent and balance to take them down the stretch. 

That just leaves Nebraska.  It's the final game of the regular season and a newly revived border rivalry.  There's no way anyone should count the Hawkeyes out of that one before the final whistle. 

This schedule is a great balance of simplicity with enough danger sprinkled in to keep the team hungry.

High, Low and Realistic Prediction

On the high side, if everything fell into place, it wouldn't be completely unexpected to see the Hawks go 11-1.  Seriously.  Quit laughing. 

As I said before, every team on the slate is beatable (though beating Nebraska might be asking a lot).  If Iowa can get all of their pieces in place this summer and effectively use Tenn. Tech as a warm-up, they could make a heck of a run.

On the low side though, the whole thing could come apart early and leave the Hawks reeling.  Pitt is dangerous, Iowa State is dangerous, Penn State is dangerous, Michigan is dangerous, MSU is dangerous, Northwestern is dangerous and obviously Nebraska is dangerous. 

It's entirely possible that Iowa could end up sub .500 and missing the bowl season altogether.  If they come in a little too confident or don't adequately fill the holes vacated by last year's departed stars, things could get really hairy. 

Realistically though, this team should fall closer to the high side, but not that high.  The schedule is light enough to afford them some growing room and there's enough potential among the last few years' recruits to be competitive with everyone on the list. 

At the same time, there are enough holes to fill that it's not realistic to expect this team to roll their way into the national title (or even BCS bowl) discussion.  They'll lose one or two that they shouldn't have, but might pick up a win or two that is way too close for comfort. 

Best guess, Iowa should end up around 8-4 with 9-3 as a ceiling and 7-5 as the basement.  Anything more than that and they overachieved.  Anything less and they failed at addressing their needs.

Yet again though, you never really know what to expect from the Hawkeyes.