Week 4 Predictions

Michael GlaessnerCorrespondent ISeptember 28, 2008

The last time the New England Patriots lost a regular season game, it was against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 of the 2006 season. Since that fateful day in which the Patriots were shut out 21-0, they've won their last 21 consecutive regular season games, culminating in the second undefeated season in NFL History and a trip to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins, on the other hand, hadn't seemed to get anything right, as they would go 1-20 during that same stretch, nearly running the table as only the second team in NFL History to go an entire season winless. Thankfully for their sake, they were able to defeat Baltimore in overtime to barely avoid that distinction. When these teams met up in Foxboro, who would have imagined the Dolphins not only winning, but winning by a 25-point margin with a Wildcat Flex offense that only works on the college level? It's been that kind of year though, where the unexpected becomes expected. The whole AFC has gone topsy turvy, as three of the four current undefeated teams had losing records last year and the fourth was the last team to get into the playoffs and is currently winning with its starting QB gone AWOL. With Tom Brady out for the year and the Colts, Jaguars and Chargers all struggling with losing records, it'll be interesting to see if the Bills, Titans, Broncos and Ravens can keep surprising people.

Denver at Kansas City

Line: Broncos by 9.5

We know Denver has a lot of offense, but they've had to survive a couple scares in their 3-0 start, as their defense has a nasty habit of keeping teams in games. Even in Week 1, Oakland starting moving the ball better as the game went along, although nobody noticed because by the time they got on the scoreboard, it was already 27-0. The good news for Denver is the Chiefs don't have any kind of a passing threat, so they'd have to jump ahead to put pressure on Denver. Because their defense is bad as well, that seems very unlikely. Broncos 41, Chiefs 7

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Line: Bengals by 3.5

Do I really have to pick this game? Don't feel bad, Ohio, you still have the Buckeyes. And if I had to make a decision, the Bengals at least showed signs of life by stretching the Giants to OT in New York. If Derek Anderson doesn't light up the Bengals the way he did in Week 2 of last year, Brady Quinn will be taking snaps from here on out. Bengals 24, Browns 17

Houston at Jacksonville

Line: Jaguars by 7

The Jags' rushing attack finally looked decent last week as they ran for about a bazillion yards against the Colts. They face another weak rushing attack in Houston, so there's no reason they shouldn't win by a handful by pounding it between the tackles. For Fantasy purposes, please use Taylor in goal-line situations, Mr. Del Rio! Jaguars 24, Texans 10

Arizona at New York Jets

Line: Jets by 1

There's no way around it, the Jets did not look good on Monday Night. In a game against the Chargers that was supposed to showcase their talent, the Jets were completely outclassed on both sides of the football. Arizona is off to a decent start and I think have just enough to get over on the road provided Warner plays a good game. Cardinals 20, Jets 16

San Francisco at New Orleans

Line: Saints by 4.5

No Shockey and no Colston means 8-in-the-box to stop Reggie Bush. The Saints haven't been a good rushing team, so Brees is going to have to put up a ton of passes and hope Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson can step it up. Meanwhile, unless the Saints get a better effort out of their defense, Frank Gore could run wild on them. 49ers 24, Saints 20

Atlanta at Carolina

Line: Panthers by 6.5

The Panthers, the team I had (and still have) pegged as the NFL's biggest surprise are back on the prowl. When you're the Cardiac Cats, sometimes, you'll give your own fans cardiac arrest, but there will be very little suspense in this game, as the Falcons looked very inexperienced and inept on offense the last time they faced an NFC South opponent on the road. Panthers 23, Falcons 10

Tennessee at Minnesota

Line: Titans by 3

The Titans have been getting it done with defense and a running game, and it has them sitting atop the AFC South at 3-0 while the Colts and Jags, the divisional favorites, have had their struggles. Expect that trend to continue against the Vikings, as AD will have a tough time finding daylight against the Titans' suffocating run defense. Titans 17, Vikings 13

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Line: Buccaneers by 1.5

Tampa is running out a hot QB against a banged-up Packers' secondary that lost Al Harris for the season. They'll have an easier time running the ball against the Pack as well, so the Bucs should win this week with balance. Since Week 1, the Packers have gotten very little out of Ryan Grant, and if he has another lousy game against Tampa, it maybe time to give Brandon Jackson his job. Buccaneers 24, Packers 23

Buffalo at St. Louis

Line: Bills by 8

The Rams have been so uncompetitive and Scott Linehan is just digging the hole deeper by starting a 38-year-old concussion-prone QB against one of the NFL's best defenses. One more blowout, which will happen as his team has completely quit on him, and Linehan will be shown the door. Bills 38, Rams 10

San Diego at Oakland

Line: Chargers by 7.5

Unlike St. Louis, the Raiders have not quit on their embattled head coach. Since rumors started circulating of Lane Kiffin's imminent firing, the Raiders rallied around him, winning in Kansas City and taking the undefeated Bills to the wire before losing at the horn by a point. Blowing a 9-point lead could prove to be deflating for this young team, however, and unless they can get some life in the passing game, McFadden alone won't be enough to keep up with the explosive Chargers. Chargers 31, Raiders 17

Washington at Dallas

Line: Cowboys by 11

Terrible line, as the Redskins have looked competitive the last two weeks and have looked decent on offense since their listless opening night against the Giants. The Cowboys' defense has also been very improved since a rough 1st half against Philadelphia and it showed last week, when they physically pounded Green Bay into submission. I expect another physical with Dallas's offense eventually wearning down the Redskins. Cowboys 24, Redskins 17

Philadelphia at Chicago

Line: Eagles by 3

The Steeler game provided a good test for the Eagles. They showed that they don't have to play in shootouts to win and they can get it done if the game gets physical, as they wore down the Steelers and sacked Big Ben 9 times. Points will be at a premium once again, so the Eagles must get ahead early, stop the run, and force Kyle Orton to beat them. Eagles 14, Bears 10

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Line: Steelers by 5

This is why I love the NFL Draft. All the experts said that Pittsburgh got the big steal in Rashard Mendenhall with the 23rd pick. Those same experts slammed the Titans for "reaching" for Chris Johnson with the very next pick. Through 3 games, Mendenhall has averaged 2.8 yards per carry, bungled a kickoff that nearly led to a turnover against the Browns, and is making guarantees on his pager that he'll have a big game against the Ravens. Chris Johnson, meanwhile, is the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year through 3 games. You just never know with the draft. Steelers 13, Ravens 10

Week 3 vs Spread 11-5
Week 3 Straight up 11-5

Season vs Spread 31-15-1

Season Straight up 31-16







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