Contributor: Eric is a football fanatic from Montreal Canada. He will be writing a weekly article in which he will discuss his predictions for the upcoming NFL games. You can find him and his other sports handicappers on Unlocked Sports.com.
This week, I have analyzed two very similar types of match ups that are by far the easiest games to predict in week 4. Both games feature one of the league’s most powerful offenses but weak defense, facing a team with a mediocre offense and defense at best. The outcomes of both games are expected to be basically identical.
My breakdown of each game will assist you whether you are looking to make a straight bet or are considering making a parlay or teaser type of bet. I have briefly analyzed the outcomes for each of these two games, picking which team will cover and if the total will be over or under. If you would like a more in depth NFL fantasy analysis of these games and other games in week 4, please refer to my website.
Pick 1: Denver -9.5
Pick 2: Over 46.5
Don’t be afraid of Denver covering a 2 score spread in this one. They won but didn’t cover in their last 2 games but that’s because they faced the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints, two of the most offensively talented teams in the NFL. The Chiefs have very little depth on offense. They are a young, inexperienced team that is playing with a lot of rookies. The Chiefs rank 30th in the league in points scored and 28th in yards gained. The Broncos are one of the teams in the league that has had the least amount of success stopping the opposition so far this season, but that is because 2 out of the 3 teams they faced were offensive powerhouses. They faced Oakland in week 1 and only allowed 14 points. The Broncos are guaranteed to put up 35-40 points on the board. They are first in the league in points scored, averaging 38 points per game meanwhile Kansas City’s defense is ranked 25th in the NFL in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. Damon Huard will get the start for K.C. and will help spark their offense. K.C. still does not have nearly enough depth on offense to keep up with Denver but should still manage to score 15-20 points. The total has gone over 6 out of the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams.
Prediction: Denver 41 K.C. 23
Game 2: San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Pick 1: San Diego -9
Pick 2: Over 45.5
San Diego is coming off a very solid offensive performance where they scored 48 points against the New York Jets and forced 3 turnovers. The offense is clicking like it was in the latter half of last season and it appears that the Chargers may be looking to begin a winning streak. Last season, San Diego covered in every game that they won. They had no problems covering 9.5 points against Brett Favre and the New York Jets and will not have any problem doing that against Oakland either. Philip Rivers is on fire. He ranks first in the league in touchdowns thrown and also has the best QB rating. The Raiders faced Jay Cutler in week 1 and allowed 41 points. Cutler is one of the quarterbacks in the NFL that has had the same kind of success as Rivers thus far this season. If Cutler was able to score 41 points against Oakland’s defense, there is every reason to believe that Rivers will do the same. The Raiders have a weak pass defense. They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed through the air and 23rd in points allowed. The Chargers will easily score 35-40 points on them. San Diego’s defense has been as bad as Denver’s. They have allowed an average of 31.3 points per game. Their weakness is their pass defense. However, JaMarcus Russell has not been very effective for Oakland as the Raiders rank 31st in the league for passing yards. The Raiders, like the Chiefs should also be able to put up 15-20 points. There are a few interesting trends supporting my picks. First, San Diego is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against Oakland. Second, the total has gone over in 8 of the Raiders last 10 games.
Prediction: San Diego 38 Oakland 17
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