UFC on Versus Fight Card: Preview and Predictions for Each Fight
Four days after UFC 127 took place in Sydney, Australia and the fights are already back on, this time for free on Versus. It's the triumphant return of the UFC on VERSUS, featuring 11 fights taking place from the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
The main event of the evening is a welterweight bout between Diego Sanchez and Martin Kampmann.
For Sanchez, this is his first fight since that fantastic bout with Paulo Thiago at UFC 121. He won that fight via decision and looks to keep the momentum going.
On the other hand, Kampmann is coming off a controversial decision loss to Jake Shields at the same event, and wants to turn his fortunes around.
Other fights on the main card include CB Dolloway taking on Mark Munoz, Alessio Sakara vs Chris Weidman and Brian Bowles vs Damacio Page.
While there aren't a lot of big fights (or big names) on the card, it doesn't mean that this won't be a good event. A lot of times the weakest cards can feature some of the best fights.
Here is a rundown of all 11 fights taking place tonight.
Welterweight Fight: Diego Sanchez vs Martin Kampmann
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Diego Sanchez Career Record: 24-4
Martin Kampmann Career Record: 17-4
Diego Sanchez is a gaidojutsu master, holding a black belt, and he is skilled in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, with a Brown Belt. He has an even split throughout his career with six knockouts, nine submissions and seven decision victories.
He will look to win his second consecutive fight—he defeated Paulo Thiago at UFC 121—after losing two straight fights before that. Going by recent history, Sanchez is more likely to win this fight via decision or knockout, though he can win this fight on the ground.
Martin Kampmann should be angry going into this fight after losing a controversial decision to Jake Shields at UFC 121. He is proficient in Muay Thai, submissions and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He has decent power in his striking, and, with seven career knockouts, he can certainly bring some fire. He would have been in line for a welterweight championship fight with a win against Shields, but instead he has to fight his way back up the welterweight mountain.
I believe this will turn into a grappling affair, and will come down to who can control the other. Sanchez looked really good against Thiago in his last fight, and Kampmann controlled a really good wrestler in Shields. This fight will go to the judges, which is always dangerous, but in the end I think Sanchez will take a very close decision victory.
Prediction: Sanchez via split decision.
Middleweight Fight: CB Dollaway vs Mark Munoz
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CB Dollaway Career Record: 12-3
Mark Munoz Career Record: 9-2
CB Dollaway has been on a nice roll lately, winning three consecutive fights and five of his last six. He looks to keep the momentum going against Mark Munoz tonight.
Dollaway needs to use his wrestling to get Munoz down to the ground, where he can control the fight and make Munoz work from the bottom to wear him down. He will use his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to work for the submission victory in this fight.
Munoz is an all-or-nothing type fighter, with five victories coming as a result of strikes (namely punches), and his other four victories via decision. In his two losses, one has come via knockout and the other via decision. If he is going to win this fight, he is going to do it by keeping the fight standing and using his striking ability to get to Dollaway.
In the end, Dollaway's more skilled overall than Munoz, and will wrestle him to the ground where he can lock in a submission in the third round of the fight.
Prediction: Dollaway via rear-naked choke in the third round.
Middleweight Fight: Alessio Sakara vs Chris Weidman
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Alessio Sakara Career Record: 19-7, 1 No Contest
Chris Weidman Career Record: 4-0
Alessio Sakara makes his return to UFC after a year off. He had a few fights in the pipeline, but they were called off due to injury or illness. Weidman makes his UFC debut tonight after four fights with Ring of Combat.
Sakara is a boxing specialist. He wants to keep the fight standing up and use his great punches and power to knock his opponent out. He is capable of fighting on the ground, but it's not where he is comfortable.
Weidman is still in the embryonic stages of his career, but he is one of the most highly touted prospects in MMA. He is skilled in wrestling, BJJ and boxing. He has power, speed, takedowns and good defense. This could be the beginning of big things for him.
I think Weidman is too skilled for Sakara, and, despite his youth, he will take the fight via submission in the second round.
Prediction: Weidman via choke in the second round.
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Bantamweight Fight: Brian Bowles vs Damacio Page
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Brian Bowles Career Record: 8-1
Damacio Page Career Record: 12-5
Brian Bowles and Damacio Page will be the opening fight on the televised portion of the card.
Bowles is a former WEC Bantamweight Champion, losing to Dominick Cruz last March. He lost that fight in between the second and third rounds due to a broken hand. He will try to get back into bantamweight title contention with a victory over Damacio Page.
This could be a very good fight between two guys who are skilled in boxing and wrestling. They can use punches or grappling to wear down their opponent.
Page is a little more well-rounded than Bowles, which could benefit him depending on what kind of fight this turns into. One thing to look out for is four of Page's five losses have come via submission. Bowles can slap on a submission from a number of positions, so watch to see if Page leaves himself open.
Prediction: Bowles via choke in the second round.
Lightweight Fight: Joe Stevenson vs Danny Castillo
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Joe Stevenson Career Record: 36-12
Danny Castillo Career Record: 10-3
This fight is interesting in that you have two vastly different storylines taking place. Joe Stevenson has lost his last two fights, to George Sotiropoulos and Mac Danzig, and could be fighting for his UFC life.
Danny Castillo is making his UFC debut after fighting for the last three years in WEC. He wants to make a nice impression on his new employer.
Stevenson is a master in Judo and BJJ, holding black belts in both. His striking is effective and is used to set up his submission game, including his patented guillotine choke.
Castillo has to know that Stevenson will try to attack his neck, and therefore won't leave it open. He is efficient in boxing and wrestling, using both to wear down his opponents. He is kind of a tweener fighter in that he hasn't been able to knock off the better fighters that he has faced (Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Shane Roller), but he has handled everyone else.
Stevenson is desperate and that doesn't usually bode well going into a fight. Castillo will be loose and will walk out of Louisville with a victory in his UFC debut.
Prediction: Castillo via first-round KO.
Light Heavyweight Fight: Steve Cantwell vs Cyrille Diabate
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Steve Cantwell Career Record: 7-3
Cyrille Diabate Career Record: 17-7-3
Much like Joe Stevenson, Steve Cantwell is fighting to save his job after two consecutive losses to Luiz Cane and Brian Stann.
Cantwell is a BJJ expert, with some Muay Thai skills mixed in. He has won each of his fights via KO or submission, no decision victories at all. His skills in BJJ allow him to avoid submissions, but he hasn't mastered the art of the three-round fight. Two of his three losses have come via decision.
Cyrille Diabate has had an interesting go of things lately. He was completely destroyed by Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 120, losing in the second-round via choke. At UFC 114, he got a victory over Luiz Cane via TKO, but he got rocked with a punch early. Plus, the stoppage was a little sketchy.
Diabate is such a hard and accurate puncher that one shot and this fight could be over quickly. Cantwell is no slouch himself, but Diabate has a four inch height advantage which will give him leverage to just pound away at Cantwell.
Prediction: Diabate via first-round knockout.
Lightweight Fight: Thiago Tavares vs Shane Roller
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Thiago Tavares Career Record: 19-3-1
Shane Roller Career Record: 9-3
This fight could, and probably will, turn into a grappling battle that will be won on the ground. Both these guys prefer to use wrestling and submissions on their opponents.
Thiago Tavares has 11 victories via submission and only one via knockout. He has a black belt in BJJ, and is really not well versed in many other areas. His striking is more just for show. He wants to take his opponent down and work from the guard position.
Shane Roller was an All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State. He has really strong grappling and takedown skills, but he does not have a lot of power behind his strikes.
Given the background of both these men, this fight will be on the ground at least 95 percent of the time. Tavares is a little bit stronger with submissions, so he gets a slight edge. If Roller can work Tavares' head and neck, he will walk away with the victory.
Prediction: Thiago Tavares via unanimous decision.
Bantamweight Fight: Takeya Mizugaki vs Reuben Duran
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Takeya Mizugaki Career Record: 13-5-2
Reuben Duran Career Record: 7-2-1
Takeya Mizugaki has fallen on some tough times lately. He is 2-3 in his last five fights, including a first-round submission loss to Urijah Faber last November. He's not particularly exciting to watch, which doesn't bode well for his future in UFC if he loses.
He is a good boxer, with some Shooto skills mixed in. He has some power, but nothing too special. He is calculated, which causes a lot of his fights to end in decision.
Reuben Duran is making his UFC debut after spending some time with King of the Cage. Five of his seven victories have come in the first round, either via KO or submission. He has gone three rounds three different times, with a 1-1-1 record in those fights. He's got an even split with three victories via KO and three via submission, plus one decision.
Give Mizugaki a slight edge because he has been fighting better competition, but Duran could surprise with a quick strike knockout early on.
Prediction: Mizugaki via split decision.
Middleweight Fight: Rob Kimmons vs Dongi Yang
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Rob Kimmons Career Record: 23-6
Dongi Yang Career Record: 9-1
This could be the best styles clash of any fight on the card. Kimmons is skilled in American Jiu Jitsu, wrestling and kickboxing. He has some power to his strikes, but he wants to work the fight to the ground where he can lock in a submission.
Dongi Yang works with Judo and Taekwondo. He wants to keep the fight standing so he can use his power and striking to knock his opponent out. He has nine career wins, eight have come via knockout. His UFC debut at UFC 121, was a decision loss to Chris Camozzi, who isn't as well versed a fighter as Kimmons is.
This isn't a very good matchup for Yang.
Prediction: Kimmons via first-round submission.
Middleweight Fight: Rousimar Palhares vs Dave Branch
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Rousimar Palhares Career Record: 20-3
Dave Branch Career Record: 8-1
Rousimar Palhares is a strong BJJ fighter, who mixes in some good physicality with his Jiu Jitsu. He doesn't want a fight to stay standing very long because that's not where his strength lies. He overpowers opponents when they are on the ground because he is so strong.
Dave Branch is fighting for the sixth time in the last 12 months. Like Palhares, Branch is skilled in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but he is a little bit better with striking. He has won his last two fights via decision.
These two men are very comparable, with no significant difference between them. Palhares might be a bit stronger with the BJJ, so he gets the slight edge in the fight.
Prediction: Palhares via unanimous decision.
Light Heavyweight Fight: Igor Pokrajac vs Todd Brown
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Igor Pokrajac Career Record: 22-8
Todd Brown Career Record: 15-2, 1 No Contest
Igor Pokrajac has lost three of his four fights in UFC, and with a loss here he could be in some trouble. He's an average wrestler, with some Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills mixed in. He doesn't excel in any one area, but he does strike okay and has some power.
Todd Brown looks to get his first victory in UFC, he lost his first fight against Tim Boetsch at UFC 117. He has trained in Muay Thai and BJJ. He has a mixed bag with five KO victories and seven submission wins in his career.
Give Brown a small edge because his skills are slightly better than Pokrajac. He strikes better and his submission game is about equal to Pokrajac. Whoever controls the ground will win the fight.
Prediction: Brown via split decision.
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