NBA 2008-2009 Central Division Preview

Despite lofty preseason expectations prior to the beginning of the 2007-2008 NBA season, the Eastern Conference’s Central Division last year was an abject disappointment.

The Detroit Pistons failed to advance past the Eastern Conference Finals for the third season in a row; the Cleveland Cavaliers failed to build on their 2007 trip to the NBA Finals; the Milwaukee Bucks continued to toil in mediocrity; the Indiana Pacers suffered through another listless campaign; and the Chicago Bulls went through the motions in an awful 33-49 season.

However, despite last year‘s disappointments, the offseason brought rekindled hope to each and every Central Division team, with several coaching changes, a stud draft pick, and an abundance of big trades hoping to turn the division’s fortunes around.

The Pistons and Cavs are the two teams with division title aspirations.

1) Detroit Pistons

The Pistons still boast an exceptional roster replete with big-time defenders, talented individual scorers, and complementary role players. On paper, they’re the best team in the division, and are good enough to challenge the Boston Celtics—and anybody else for an NBA title.

In Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons have two physical on-ball defenders, while Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, and Rip Hamilton provide intimidating length. Detroit relied on that quintet to hold opponents to 90.1 points per game last season, tops in the NBA.

Depending on the matchups, all four are capable one-on-one scorers averaging over 12.7 points per game, though Detroit’s offense runs best when Rip Hamilton is able to curl off baseline screens to free himself for mid-range jumpers.

Their bench is tough and athletic, headlined by Rodney Stuckey’s powerful penetrations off the dribble, and Jason Maxiell’s non-stop motor and freakish athleticism.

However, despite the talent, the balance, the versatility, and the commitment to defense, Detroit has suffered from an elitist attitude under former head coach Flip Saunders, simply expecting to win by walking onto the court.

Instead of playing with a killer instinct and gameplanning complex strategies to defeat an opponent, the Pistons would play simplistic one-on-one basketball on offense, and would be lethargic and slow to adapt on the defensive end.

Furthermore, while the Pistons had talent and balance, they lacked that one elite superstar to simply take over crucial moments of the biggest games. Sure, Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton could be counted on in the clutch, but only when Rasheed Wallace was vigorously venturing into the low post in 2004, have they ever fielded a low-post scorer who could take games over in the clutch.

Under Saunders, Wallace was little more than a ball-reverser and three-point shooter.

The Pistons are hoping that their new coach, Michael Curry, can solve both those problems by providing more energy than Saunders, and by using his communicating skills to reinvigorate Wallace, but given the team’s veteran composition and Curry’s status as a rookie head coach, it’s hard to expect he’ll have much credibility in the locker room.

They still have the talent and the defensive presence to be one of the East’s elite, but unless ‘Sheed can find it in his heart to attack from the post, the Pistons won’t have the moxie to meet their perennial championship expectations.

2) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are hoping that the addition of Mo Williams and his 17.2 scoring average from last season will give LeBron James the sidekick he desperately needs to lift the Cavaliers to a title—just as they hoped that Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones would provide answers to Cleveland’s prior punchless puzzle.

What general manager Danny Ferry and head coach Mike Brown can’t seem to realize is that by starting every single possession with James holding the ball at the top of the key before going into their offense, defenses can focus their undivided attention on LeBron.

They won’t have to worry about off-ball movement and they know exactly where their defensive responsibilities will be at all times, making it easier for them to help on LeBron and recover back to their assignments.

Plus, will Mo Williams really provide the scoring and playmaking Cleveland thinks he will? He isn’t great at running an offense, and makes his living driving and pulling up off of screen/rolls. He doesn’t have the court vision to run a complex offense, and despite his 38 % three-point shooting percentage, he isn’t a great spot-up shooter, which is what he’ll be since LeBron handles the ball so much.

And before last season’s trade, Cleveland had an exceptional defensive ball club, with LeBron evolving into a strong on-ball defender, Zydrunas Ilgauskas swallowing up post players with his massive frame, Larry Hughes clamping down the perimeter, and the entire team buying into Mike Brown’s defensive principals. That defense only allowed 92.9 points per game in 2006-2007, helping the Cavs catapult to the NBA Finals.

Now, the Cavs have Wally Szczerbiak’s ancient legs, Mo Williams’ stocky frame, and the ghost of Ben Wallace downgrading Cleveland’s overall team defense.

Their offense isn’t versatile enough, their defense has taken a step back, and the team may be the least athletic in the NBA. Unless LeBron’s inconsistent jump shooting improves, Mike Brown retools his entire offense, and the team gets a lot quicker in a hurry, the Cavs will be faced with yet another long summer of looking for a Robin for LeBron’s Batman.

3) Milwaukee Bucks

After Larry Krystkowiak couldn’t whip the selfish, defenseless Bucks, and their 104 points allowed per game average, into shape in his season-plus as head coach, general manager Tom Hammond fired him and replaced him with the fascist Scott Skiles.

To further show that the Bucks are committed to making a playoff push, project forward Yi Jianlian was shipped out, and Richard Jefferson was brought in to score (22.6 ppg last season), to pass (3.1 apg), to defend, and to serve as a leader by showing his teammates that there is more to being a great basketball player than dominating the ball and looking to jack up shots.

With Jefferson on board, Michael Redd no longer has to be the team’s creator and can look to serve as a secondary catch-and-shoot guy off of Jefferson, a position which should benefit him and the team.

Andrew Bogut is a serviceable NBA center, Luke Ridnour knows how to run an offense, Roman Sessions had as wonderful a final month of the 2007-08 season as he could have hoped for, and Tyronn Lue is the type of defensive pest Skiles loves to have.

However, Charlie Villanueva is soft, a poor defender, and a ball dominator who’ll no doubt land in Skiles’ doghouse. The rest of the big men lack bulk, length, or athleticism, the point guards are mediocre—or unproven, and the team has precious few elite role players which keep offenses humming and fill niches defensively.

The Bucks will challenge with the rest of the Eastern Conference’s mediocrity for a final playoff spot, but the roster is a year away from being a serious player.

4) Chicago Bulls

Ben Gordon and Ben Wallace quit on the Bulls early last year and the season snowballed into a disaster. Wallace is long gone, Gordon wants out, and the Bulls would be best off without his selfishness, his defenselessness, and his inability to convert simple layups.

Even without Gordon, the Bulls present a potentially potent offense with Luol Deng’s mid-range game, Larry Hughes’ slashing talents, Drew Gooden’s ability to post or pop, Kirk Hinrich’s reliable shooting, a slew of energetic hustlers in Andres Nocioni, Tyus Thomas, and Joakim Noah, and rookie phenom, Derrick Rose. Discounting Rose, that group combined to average close to 80 points a game, and that number should increase with Rose on board.

Still, there’s still too much uncertainty surrounding the team, and the Bulls have yet to solve their lack of a refined post player, their over-emphasis on jump shooting, and their lack of quality defenders.

Like the Bucks, the Bulls will be in the hunt for a playoff spot this season, but if they don’t solve the problems mentioned above, it will be a second straight trip  to the lottery.

5) Indiana Pacers

About a season and a half too late, the Pacers have finally decided to start over and rebuild.

With Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley each on the pine with injuries missing half the season, the Pacers learned last season that Mike Dunleavy Jr. could be a reliable playmaker to build around as he averaged 19 points a game with 3.5 assists, while Danny Granger continues to be a matchup nightmare by being stronger than opposing small forwards, and faster than opposing power forwards to average 19.6 points a game and 6.1 rebounds.

T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack give the Pacers a young combination of a lithe speedster and a smart sturdy backup which complement each other well, while Rasho Nesterovic and Jeff Foster are strong and dependable at center.

However, the scorers on the team can’t defend, the defensive players are very limited offensively, and there isn’t a lot of star power to carry the team. The management finally has their heads in the right place, but it will take some time to see exactly what players need to surround Dunleavy and Granger for the Pacers to be escape the Central cellar.

The Central division matches the Atlantic division in legit Eastern Conference Championship contenders, but while the Bucks, Bulls, and Pacers, have their problems, they shouldn’t be nearly as bad as the Nets and Knicks project to be. And even though the Raptors are a bona-fide playoff team, they don’t have the toughness to get out of the first round anyway.

It isn’t quite the West’s murderous Southwest Division, but top-to-bottom, the Central Division is still the class of the Eastern Conference.