Running backs get all the glory and money, but yet the running-back position is the most replaceable and overrated. The difference in NFL running-back production, besides the select few backs, isn’t large enough for certain players to be getting paid so much.
If I was an NFL GM, I would not be spending a lot of money on running backs. Look at the Kansas City Chiefs, for example. Larry Johnson has a salary of $13,300,000 a year, while their backup, Kolby Smith, was just as productive as him last year. The Chiefs could have used that money on other positions, such as offensive linemen, and made their team better.
Every year, there are so many backup running backs that do just as well as, if not better than, their starters. There are very few running backs that are actually irreplaceable.
A good example of this point is Priest Holmes. He had one of the greatest O-lines in the history of the game and had the greatest three-year stretch any running back has ever had. Yet, when he got hurt, his backup, Larry Johnson, showed us that he might have been better than Priest when he ran for 1,750 yards in a season where he only started nine games.
The greatest example of a team that constantly replaces their starting running backs and does not see much of a change in production is the Denver Broncos. Over the last nine years, they have had seven different rushing leaders and six different 1,000-yard rushers.
Leader's, by year: 1999, Terrell Davis; 2000, Olandis Gary; 2001, Mike Anderson; 2002, Clinton Portis; 2003 , Clinton Portis; 2004, Reuben Droughns; 2005, Mike Anderson; 2006, Tatum Bell; 2007, Selvin Young; and 2008?
I never realized that the running backs position was so replaceable until I started playing fantasy football. In fantasy football, every time a starting running back gets injured, you just pick up his backup, and there generally isn’t much of a difference in production.
Let’s look at the first day starting running backs in the NFL from last year, and see which one’s were irreplaceable to their team:
(YPC-Yards per carry, YPR - Yards per reception)
Bears
Starter: Cedric Benson—196 attempts, 3.4 YPC, 674 yards, 4 touchdowns, 17 receptions, 127 yards, 7.2 YPR
Backup: Adrian Peterson—151 attempts, 3.4 YPC, 510 yards, 3 touchdowns, 51 receptions, 420 yards, 8.2 YPR
Advantage: Nobody
Verdict: Replaced already
Bengals
Starter: Rudi Johnson—170 attempts, 497 rushing yards, 2.9 YPC, 3 touchdowns, 13 receptions, 110 yards, 8.5 YPR, 1 receiving touchdown
Backup: Kenny Watson—178 attempts, 763 rushing yards, 4.3 YPC, 7 touchdowns, 52 receptions, 374 yards, 7.2 YPR
Advantage: Backup
Verdict: Replaceable
Bills
Starter: Marshawn Lynch—280 attempts, 1,115 yards, 4.0 YPC, 7 Touchdowns, 18 receptions, 184 yards, 10.2 YPR
39 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
Andrew Mason 10 months ago
good article but I disagree with your verdict about Marshawn Lynch. Lynch was huge for the Bills last year when their passing game was inefficient to say the least. Then Fred Jackson didnt came in til later in the season. He was brought in when Lynch was tired and when he became injured. Both backs exceeded expectations which was huge for the bills.
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Max Iascone 10 months ago
very good article and research but I think that you may have made a slight error in methodology in coming to your conclusion. Some of the backups you mention have 1/2-1/4 of the carries of the starting RB on their team, sure, a backup can fill in but extrapolating numbers accrued in a smaller smaple size of playing time is troublesome, and some of the guys you mentioned, especialy Leon Washington, who couldn't take the beating inherent in being a feature back, couldn't provide the consistent production that starters can. For this reason, the NFL is leaning more and more towards the adoption of 2 back systems to prevent wear and tear on their running backs and to diversify offenses. Your overall point remains intact and as I can tell by your analysis of the Cardinals, you took the amount of carries for backups into an account to an extent but statistically speaking I think that some of these numbers are invalid. I do agree with your overall premise though, and I would have added that many running backs, even the really great ones, tend to flame out around age 30 (the numbers for HOF RBs after age 30 tend to support this but I don't feel like digging them up.) and possess nothing close to the longevity of other skill position players like QBs or WRs, or even defensive players or O-linemen. Once again, very good work, keep 'em coming.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
I appreciate the respond I understand what you're saying. You make a good point about Leon Washington , but like I said this isn't exact science. I explained that in the article "Although I believe that these stats are relevant, you have to keep in mind that this is not exact science because these statistics don’t show if the back was playing with injury, was a short yardage back or a third down back, the difference in workload and fatigue between the two players, what defenses the running back played against, how the running back was being played, and other key points."
Yes it's true there are many two back systems and in fact teams like the giants had 4 backs with productive roles last year. But I used the backup running back with the most attempts last season as long as the backup had a decent amount of attempts.
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Todd Morse 10 months ago
Hi Ari, I wish I would have read this comment before I posted mine. There are people that do these stratifications for a living and make it an exact science. The NFL is a multi-billion dollar industry and there are reasons no. 1 runningbacks are no. 1 runningbacks.
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Avi Mil 10 months ago
Quite an amazing & smart observation!
Every general manager of an NFL team should read this article. Your statistics were quite revealing and supportive of your idea !
David Mil
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Todd Morse 10 months ago
his stats were built to support his idea but they are by no means close to being correct. I'm no stats major, but it is absolutely ridiculous to use these stats to support the argument. It is also ridiculous to form a thesis of "runningbacks are replaceable except when they aren't"
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Evan Howarth 10 months ago
Nice article man. I had know idea runnings backs were that replaceable. You are right, LJ is getting paid way too much!!!!!!
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
Hey Todd, there is no way to make this an exact science no matter how much money you spend, there are too many factors involved. I could be wrong about some of them, but like i said in my article, "these statistics have to be considered relevant, due to the fact that not only are there so many backups with as good as or better statistics than their starters, there are also many backups with a similar amount of ATTEMPTS as their starters, with as or more productive statistics than their starters."
By the way you said "there is a reason starting running backs are starting running backs". It doesn't matter whether you disagree with me and think that most starters are better than their backups, the point of this article is that their isn't enough of a difference in production in most running backs for them to be getting paid so much, and you cannot say my statistics do not support that.
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Brad Ryan 10 months ago
Great Article. Nice research. After reading this, I would have to agree with you.. Running backs are overrated. O-lines are where its at.
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Andres Sanchez 10 months ago
Overpaid? I dont know.
I would rather you much do an article on the Top 10 draft pics over the past 10 years and see if them getting overpaid worked out to those who weren't paid as much. I mean this analysis to broad, i dont think its so much as Runningbacks are being replaced, but being injured. Lamont, Larry, Ronnie, Willis, Duece... the list goes on. And the backups that step in behind them are just... Backups. You can do this with any team at any position. Unless your name is Brett Favre and you are unbreakable throughout your career, there is always a possiblility of you getting injured and somebody anxiously waiting to fill your role. Good research but this is football. You take chances with your money, sometimes you win sometimes you lose. Do one on Draft Pics, that will get my attention to this whole Rookies getting paid to much. Keep em coming ARI
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
"and the backups that step in behind them are just... Backups"
Well Marion Barber, Ryan grant, Rudi johnson, Brian westbrook, Frank Gore were all no name backups and I think those are all pretty good players and i"m just naming a few really good players that were all once backups. I don't think you can do that with any position. If Randy moss gets hurts, nobody going to fill his shoes. I completely disagree. Show me some stats that prove me that other position's backups can fill in for their positons as well as backup running backs do.
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rob inow 10 months ago
Thought provoking article. Great analysis. When the Chiefs backup runs for more yards per carry then seriously overpaid and overhyped Larry Johnson, something is definitely wrong.
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Cody London 10 months ago
I've always thought that running backs were overrated. Your analysis and research supports your conclusion.
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eric altgilbers 10 months ago
You might want to check what running back is on what because seaveral of them you named are on different teams.
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eric altgilbers 10 months ago
I mean want to check which running back is on which team because several of them are on different teams.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
Eric, read the article, it's about last year. not this year!!
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Nathan Blunck 10 months ago
if i was a GM i know where most of my money would be spent. right in the trenches. get a good line and everything falls into place. good article.
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Steven Resnick 10 months ago
Wow you must have a lot of time on your hands. Tell me this if running backs are so overrated then why the heck when you have a great one for example LT, it makes every other offensive player that much more dangerous? Putting a Olandis Gary on the Chargers. he would get nowhere near the production. Fantasy is not real life, I hate to break it to you. You obviously don't understand that much about football.
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Grey Ryan 10 months ago
Steven.. Did you take time to read the article? he said LT and others were irreplaceable.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
Hey if you read my article you would have noticed that I said Lt was irreplaceable to his own team. So no Olandis gary would not do the same! By the way I have too much time on my hands? realy? I'm in preaseason right now for DIVISION 1 SOCCER and were doing three a days and I ran 2 miles in 11:48 seconds earlier today, so buddy don't tell me I have too much time on my hands.
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Sean Crowe 10 months ago
Fred Jackson over Marshawn Lynch?
Really?
Stats don't tell the whole story...
I agree with the premise, however. RBs are, for the most part, a dime a dozen...
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
For all those people that say that his statistics don't support his argument-
Well it's not as if he has a few stats that support his argument. he has many, many stats that do. Although
his analysis isn't perfect, he has so much evidence that his argument must be considered valid.
P.S, he says in his article that "these statistics have to be considered relevant, due to the fact that not only are there so many backups with as good as or better statistics than their starters, there are also many backups with a similar amount of attempts as their starters, with as or more productive statistics than their starters."
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
that was my friend sorry about him posting it on my name
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Andres Sanchez 10 months ago
Who? Lol... I dont know if I have enought time to list em all....
Among Active QBs...Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers, Tony Romo, Derrik Anderson, Jeff Garcia, Travaris Jackson, Kurt Warner, David Garrard and Many more came in as no name backups. Do you need more?
Among Active WR's and other Positions... Well theres just to many and I dont have the time. Like i said, this is professional football, not flag football. Players will get injured and not achieve at this level, you never know who is, its all just a big gamble so that is why alot of teams emphasise Depth on their team. Come on Ari, your making this more compicated then it should be.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
Tavaris Jackson aaron rodgers all are great quarterbacks. haha they haven't done anything yet. Anderson has had one good year so far. Garcia is a journey man quarterback. your defense is horrible
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Andres Sanchez 10 months ago
Well considering your a 'Fact' man....You must not believe in God & Im guessing you believe our former ancestors were monkeys. Come to think of it, that may be the reason on why I love bannanas so much. Hmm interesting :)
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
You didn't understand what I was asking you, you're the one who said backups are just backups, your the one going against your point with listing those quarterbacks. I didn't ask you list me good backup quarterbacks to prove to me that other positions are just as replaceable. Because there have been many backup quarterbacks that became great. I want you to prove to me your point when you said "You can do this with any team at any position." I wanted you to show me how you can show what I showed with my statistics in other positions. I wanted you to show me that if you do this with another positions the statistics would be just as similiar as they are with the starting running backs and backups.
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Michael Inglis 10 months ago
YOu can't be serious. You do understand that the more carries a player gets the more his average yards per carry is going to go down right? There is a reason they are they backup and it's because they aren't as good.
Felix Jones averaged 3 more yards per carry than McFadden did in college. Does that make Jones better? Oh yeah, that McFadden guy was a two time Heisman runner up.
How did you put AD as the backup when you consider he got 81 more carries. I don't care who jogs onto the field first, who gets the most carries is the starter.
You also only use last year as your sample. LJ had a couple of MVP type years not to long ago and look how the Chiefs did when he didn't perform well. They sucked so maybe he isn't replacable.
Also, you said McGahee is irreplacable but willie Parker is replaceable despite the fact that they had very similar numbers. How did the steelers do after Parker went down?
You said Ronnie Brown is irreplacable but I remember the Dolphins talking about drafting a RB.
Stats don't always tell the story my friend.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
If you read my article you would have seen that I wrote about the workload between the players. read the conclusion and it will answer your questions. If you look at the running backs with similiar attempts, most of them were as good or better than their starters. And I wrote opening day starters becaue the article is about how starters are replaceable. read the article!!!! LJ didn't have mvp numbers because his two future hall of famer offensive lineman retired. Ronnie Brown is injury prone but he is very very good. They might have been talking about drafting one, but not in the first three rounds. they are loaded at the back postion with ricky williams and ronnie brown why would they ever draft one. By the way after willie parker went down the steelers did bad? they went 1-1, I don't know what your talking about. Give me some facts, that your own imaginary ones.
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Samuel Bell Jr 10 months ago
you're right, some starters are replaceable, but not guys like Marshawn Lynch...he carried the Bills load and will again this year, and that offense is much more formidable with him than anyone else that can wear a Bills uniform right now...
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Angel Navedo 10 months ago
Nice research on the article, but I disagree with everything.
This is why I say Fantasy Football is the devil. You can't analyze statistics after the fact and utilize that as the end-all of the discussion when it comes to player's contributions.
When the Oakland Raiders looked at Lamont Jordan to sign him away from the New York Jets three years ago, they were impressed with his YPC. In a backup role, he had nearly 500 yards on 100-something carries. What those STATS don't tell anyone is that over 120 of his yards came in a game where the Jets were beating up on Miami and rested Curtis Martin.
Oakland found out the hard way.
There are some running backs that bring a totally different dynamic to the game. He might only pound the rock for 3 to 4 yards per carry, but his pass-blocking is irreplaceable, or his endurance is inhuman. Backups get more yardage because they come in for 3rd down situations with fresh legs, or beat up on teams in the fourth quarter.
There are some systems that just work. Denver is an anomaly in the NFL. It's incredible offensive line schemes more than anything. Houston's tried to pull it off, but has yet to achieve similar success.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
Maybe if I written an article comparing running backs to backups that that had multiple starts, people would have understood my point better. The Colts, are an example of a team that when a different running backs starts, there isn't much of a difference in production. Lets look at Dominic Rhodes a couple years ago when him and addai played together. Their stats were very similiar.
This year, when Kenton Keith started because Addai got injured, he had a couple great games. But why did he do so good. Well the colts have a good offensive line. The Broncos aren't the only team, there just the team that switches there running backs the most. Mike Shanahan is a genius and understands this and thats why he traded Clinton Portis for Champ Bailey. By the way Lamont Jordan did not play that bad in his career with the raiders. He didn't dominate, but main reason he lost his job was because of his health and because when teams keep losing generally the replaceable positions like running backs aren't going to stay the starters.
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Michael Inglis 10 months ago
So your saying if you have good lineman you numbers don't really count. Nice logic.
2006: 1,789 yds with 19 total Tds 9-7 team record. Playoffs
2005: 1750 yds with 21 total Tds. 11-5 team record. Playoffs
(Those look like MVP number to me)
2007: 559 yds with 4 total Tds. 4-12 record.
Actually the Steelers went 0-2 after the Parker injury including the playoffs. He played in 15 games. Apparently your facts are a bit imaginary.
There is a reason they are the backup, becuase they aren't as good as the starter. Get it?
Tell me, look at Felix Jones and McFadden stats are Arkansas. According to your logic, McFadden was replacable.
"Lets look at Dominic Rhodes a couple years ago when him and addai played together. Their stats were very similiar."
Really? Addai - 1,081 yds, 4.8 yds/carry Rhodes - 641 yds, 3.4 yds/carry
Obviously you didn't look this up and obviously not just anyone can run behind the Colts line.
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Michael Inglis 10 months ago
"By the way Lamont Jordan did not play that bad in his career with the raiders."
Are you kidding me? He never averaged more than 3.8 yds per carry in any of his 3 seasons and averaged .4 TDs per game.
Look at his stats as a backup with the Jets and then as a starter with the Radiers.
Jets: 1,227 yds on 4.8 yds/carry
Radiers: 2,008 yds on 3.8 yds/carry.
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Michael Inglis 10 months ago
"By the way Lamont Jordan did not play that bad in his career with the raiders."
Are you kidding me? He never averaged more than 3.8 yds per carry in any of his 3 seasons and averaged .4 TDs per game.
Look at his stats as a backup with the Jets and then as a starter with the Radiers.
Jets: 1,227 yds on 4.8 yds/carry
Radiers: 2,008 yds on 3.8 yds/carry.
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Michael Inglis 10 months ago
Don't even worry about the other stuff I said, just tell me is this back replacable:
1335 yds, 3.9 YPC, 339 attempts
392 yds, 6.0 YPC, 65 attempts
Also, even though Clinton Portis has better numbers in every statistical category than Laddel Betts you still said he was replaceable by him. Uhm. . . explain that one.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
Clinton Portis numbers are slightly better. .3 ypc better. Not enough better for him to be irreplaceable. By the way Look up ladell betts stats at the end of the 2006 season when he took over for an injured clinton portis and had over 100 yards in his last 5 of 6 games. with two of those games rushing for 155 and 172!!!! So please don't tell me clinton portis is irreplaceable. Ladell Betts in 2006 averaged 4.7 ypc while portis averaged 4.1. I actually think that Betts is better than portis when he is able to start games and finish them, not come in for random series.
You still don't get it. Your'e focusing on the wrong part of the article. The article isn't about which running back has the advantage. It's about the verdict. It's about whether the guy is replaceable. The guy with 3.9 ypc is replaceable, does that mean the guy with 6 ypc is replaceable. No he doesn't have enough carries for that to be determined.
About Rhodes , your right about his regular season stats, buts let compare his 2006 playoff stats to addai.
Addai 89 attempts 337 yards 3.8 ypc
Rhodes 62 attempts 308 yards 4.97 ypc
So ya I'll admit some fault for taking their playoff stats into
the argument but do you see my point now.
And about Lamont Jordan, well the Jets obviously had a better offensive line back then the raiders did with Jordan. No arguing about that. And If you look his stats from last year he ran for 159 yards and 119 yards in his second and third game but then got injured and missed week 4 due to an inury and came back playing with an injury and had to play the kansas city chiefs the 12th ranked rushing defense and the chargers the 7th ranked rushing defense, and the titans the 3rd ranked rushing defense. Jordan was unhealthy his entire career with the raiders. He was constantly playing with injuries. The raiders offensive line was putrid his first two years. It's was still putrid last year but I'll admit that the raiders offensive run blocking was improved last season. I know Fargas played better than him this past season, but when Jordan was healthy he didn't play that bad with the raiders.
And what are you talking about with willie parker???
He had 1 attempt in week 16 and they won 41-24 against the rams without him with davenport rushing for 124 yards. Than they lost to the Ravens in week 17 in a game they didn't even play their startes becuase they already clinched. I was tlaking about them being 1-1 in the regular season. Yes they lost to the the Jaguars in
a wild car game without parker 31-29. But I wasn't inclduing that. Yes Davenport didn't play well but the jaguars are 5th best rushing defense in the league last year. so if you want to include the playoff game and the week 17 game they didn't even try in, than yes they were 1-2.
I can't wait to see your respond, you acted like you were so right but you didn't even notice that parker had 1 attempt in week 16.
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
I already said a 100 times not to look at individual battles between backups and starters. If you want to only compare the players with the similiar amount of ATTEMPTSSS to each other, do that and you'll see my point about running backs being replaceable is still valid!!!!!!!
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Ari Horing 10 months ago
Wait I just saw you're Larry Johnson Stats. haha
2005: 1750 yards with a 5.2 ypc: he had two future hall of famers in Willie Roaf and Will Shields blocking for him so his numbers were amazing
2006: 1789 yards with a 4.3 ypc: second year Willie Roaf retired and his numbers were decent but his ypc dropped signifigantly from 5.2 ypc to 4.3,
2007: 559 yds with 4 total Tds. 3.5 YPC: Will Shields retired and his numbers dropped from 4.3 to 3.5. So obviously his Offensive Line was a big factor in why he was running so good before.
I'm from Kansas city, nice try though.
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