Dave's IMO: Don't Drink the Maize and Blue Kool-Aid Just Yet

Dave Thurman (8:40 pm)

The media is nothing if not predictable.  Desperate for a story they will create one if necessary.  Exhibit A is their giddiness in regard to Michigan, treating the boys from Ann Arbor as if they are the comeback story of the decade. 

From looking at the front pages of pretty much every college football site on the internet, one would deduce that the Wolverines are back as a football power.  And, Denard Robinson is certainly the new media darling, with some pundits ready to throw his name into the Heisman race. 

But as analyst Lee Corso would say (and I can't believe I am quoting him), "Not so fast, my friend."  Michigan played a fine game against Connecticut this past Saturday, and Robinson was impressive.  But one game does not a season make.

Let's look at this in a more realistic light, taking off the scUM-stained glasses.  Before giving Michigan and Robinson a coronation ceremony, maybe we should consider the following:

1) Michigan got off to a fast start last year with Tate Forcier as the next big thing.  Lest we forget, the 2009 Michigan team started 4-0, but managed to win only one more game, which was against FCS opponent Delaware State.  In week two, when the Wolverines defeated 18th-ranked Notre Dame, a whole lot of people were ready to pronounce the team as a Big Ten contender, and Michigan fans were gushing about Tate Forcier. 

As we now know, young Mr. Forcier was not the answer, and the defense was far from ready to contend for a Big Ten title.  It might be good to file that information away, because the similarities are stunning.

2) Connecticut is not exactly a powerhouse team. The Big East has not exactly impressed me the past couple of seasons (Cincinnati went undefeated last year if that tells you anything), and the UConn Huskies, despite being 8-5 a year ago, are a middle of the pack team this year at best.  They did not look impressive Saturday, and did a poor job of exploiting the weaknesses in Michigan's defense.

3) Denard Robinson is not built to withstand a Big Ten season.  I thought the kid played great Saturday, and flashed incredible speed, with a more accurate arm that I expected.  But if he can take the pounding all year in the Big Ten, I will be shocked. 

When a 190-pound quarterback tries to run it 20 times a game against the likes of Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, he better be as tough as Superman, because he is going to take some vicious hits.  Even if Robinson can make it through the entire season without a major injury, the physical pounding he takes will have a big impact on the late season games.  That's one reason Forcier was so much less effective in the second half of 2009.  "Shoelace" may be the toast of the town in September, but check back with me in two months.

4) The Michigan defense is still a liability.  Yes, they looked better on Saturday than I have seen them in the Rodriguez era, but this is still a team with a suspect secondary, which lacks depth, and will be exploited by a number of teams before the season is over. 

The first five games feature Notre Dame and a bunch of cupcakes.  But in the final seven contests, the schedule brings Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.  It is conceivable that Michigan will lose each of those games.  And the other two—Illinois and Purdue—won't be guaranteed wins.  When your defense is susceptible, Big Ten victories are hard to come by. 

So, before you get too excited or concerned about the 2010 Wolverines, take a deep breath, and allow the season to play itself out.  Yes, they have a lot of speed at the skill positions.  And, yes, the line is much quicker than in the past.  But there are some major holes on defense, and a general lack of depth at most positions.  If improvement means six or seven wins, count me in.  If people are expecting a Big Ten contender, then color me a big-time skeptic.