Basketball development expert Brian McCormick has written a few articles explaining why Monta Ellis will not be an effective point guard for the Warriors.
“Monta Ellis possesses all the skills to play PG,” writes McCormick in an excellent piece titled, “The Personality of a Point Guard”. “He is quick, handles well, shoots well, attacks the basket, penetrates, etc. But, he is not a PG and he never will be. He is a scorer. To cast Ellis as a PG is to misuse his skills and strengths.”
Nevertheless, the Warriors are set to usher in the post-Baron Davis era with Monta Ellis at point guard, despite the concerns of many in the basketball world.
Although McCormick makes a solid case for why Ellis should not be a full-time point guard throughout his work, I have a more optimistic perspective.
First, Ellis has demonstrated the ability to run the team in spurts—I would suggest doubters watch his February 20 game against the Boston Celtics for proof of that.
But second, and more importantly, I think there’s more than one way to play the point guard position. Just because Ellis doesn't fit the profile of the traditional point guard who will look to distribute first does not mean he is incapable of playing point guard.
Therefore, the way to analyze the Warriors’ future is probably to move beyond rigid definitions of what it means to play point guard and look at the team they have put together around Ellis. In particular, I think it's important to appreciate that the Warriors have laid out a long-term plan that could be extremely successful, without sacrificing too much in the short-term or salary cap room for the much anticipated 2010 free agent signing period.
So for a moment, put aside concerns about whether Ellis’ playing style resembles what you would normally expect from a point guard. Instead, ask whether the team the Warriors are building around Ellis is capable of developing into a strong unit in the future.
If we assume that even half of their young talent develops over time, it’s hard to deny that this group has a chance to become something special.
Credit Chris Mullin (and Don Nelson) for building a coherent team around Ellis
I think McCormick actually put it best when he wrote the following at his blog:
"The Warriors, however, have managed to rebuild for the future without becoming a terrible team. Unfortunately, they are in the stacked West."
Of course, that leaves plenty of room for anxiety among Warriors fans. How well do the pieces they’ve assembled currently complement each other? Can they really make the playoffs this year? And what does that bring future really look like?
When I thought about the Warriors’ future after Davis opted out, I figured the Warriors could go in one of two directions at the point guard position—find the coveted “big point guard” who could defend off-guards, or play Ellis at point guard and surround him with good passers that can take care of distributing the ball.
It appears the Warriors are starting to do the latter. That’s why I find reason for optimism.
Here’s the Warriors roster for the season, assuming they don’t make any more moves:
Ellis/Williams/CJ Watson
Jackson/Bellineli/Morrow
Maggette/Azubuike/Randolph
Harrington/Wright/Hendrix
Biedrins/Turiaf/Perovic
Right now, the Warriors have at least three players that have demonstrated good passing skills—Stephen Jackson, Marcus Williams, and Anthony Randolph. Of course, we’ll have to wait for the season to figure out how productive Williams and Randolph can be—but conceptually, the direction they're going seems fruitful.
If we consider that this is an uptempo team that likes to run, and which lacks a dominant post scorer, let’s think about what Monta might have to do as a point guard.
We already know how effective Ellis can be in fast break situations. But even in half court situations, the ideal offense for Ellis would have him bring the ball up the court, quickly pass it off to one of these other passers, and then move around screens or cut to the basket to find scoring opportunities with his speed.
It would be a departure from the way the Warriors have played in the past with one player coming up the court and being responsible for distributing the ball, but it would be a considerably more effective way to maximize Ellis’ talent.
If we look beyond just the ballhandling responsibilities, we can see even more evidence that this could be a strong team in the future. If Ellis is the focal point of the offense—primarily shooting jumpers and slashing to the basket off cuts—then it would make sense to put perimeter scorers and good offensive rebounders around him.
In other words, you want to keep the tempo high and constantly put pressure on the defense to respond. It would seem that’s exactly what the Warriors are doing.
Player styles and potential chemistry
The Arbitrarian blog provides us with a unique tool for understanding the styles of the Warriors have brought in—the SPI player styles spectrum. “SPI” stands for scorer-perimeter-interior—and as you can probably guess, what it does is show us the extent to which a player is a scorer, perimeter, or interior player.
What’s great about it is that it gives us a sense of how players compare to one another, how productive they are (the size of their name) and the degree to which players fit a particular style (click here for more about the methodology).
So now let’s look at the styles of the players in the Warriors’ projected rotation, with a projection for Randolph based on comparisons to existing players:
Starters: Ellis (perimeter scorer), Jackson (perimeter scorer), Maggette (perimeter scorer), Harrington (mixed), Biedrins (pure interior)
Bench: Turiaf (scorer’s opposite), Wright (pure interior), Azubuike (interior/scorer), Williams (perimeter scorer), Randolph (mixed), Watson (perimeter scorer)
What you have around Ellis are a lot of scorers, a few interior players who can rebound, and a few players who can pass the ball well. If Marco Belinelli can develop into a more consistent shooter and play-maker—he demonstrated solid ball handling skills in summer league—he could be an additional passer and perimeter shooter. This is easily the most complementary roster the Warriors have had in years.
Although the team doesn’t figure to be a strong three-point shooting team, what we can say is that they have the makings of an ideal team to play around Ellis. Three-point shooters are easy to draft or pick up along the way and they might already have two in Belinelli and Williams.
The Maggette signing might look like a glaring deviation from the youth movement, but consider that he adds free-throw shooting, an important aspect of the game that the Warriors really struggled in last year.
It’s still not an ideal signing—but on paper, it’s not terrible either. If Maggette can improve his willingness to pass, he could become a huge asset.
But can this roster make the playoffs?
As bright as the future is and as well as the players might complement each other, I don’t think they’ll be making the playoffs in 2009. The Arbitrarian blog provides us with another tool that is worth using with regards to projecting wins—Boxscores. It is described at length at the blog, but what it breaks down to is assigning credit to each individual player for wins.
What those numbers show is that in losing Davis, Matt Barnes, and Mickael Pietrus to free agency, the Warriors lost approximately 16.32 wins. However they have only gained nine wins, not counting rookies Randolph, Richard Hendrix, and Anthony Morrow. Unless the rookies play well enough to make up for seven wins (not particularly likely), this team will not reach last year's total of 48 wins, and probably won’t have enough for the playoffs, especially with Portland figuring to begin a new playoff streak.
However, they might also be able to expect increased production from Ellis, Wright, Biedrins, Williams, and Belinelli, as each of them should be expected to improve. That’s still a lot riding on young players, but increased contributions across six to eight players (including rookies) should make this team at least competitive, if not a playoff contender.
The way I see it, this is a 40-42 win team maximum—if they don't sustain any major injuries to rotation players. That means they would have to play beyond perfect basketball for 82 games to make the playoffs in a tight Western Conference. That's not very likely, given that growing pains should be expected.
What does the future hold?
To gauge the future, I think you have to look at the Warriors’ young core. I would say the core right now consists of three primary players (Ellis, Biedrins, Randolph) and three secondary players (Wright, Williams, Belinelli). Each one of those players has considerable potential and is likely to improve this season.
When I look at these groupd the first thing I see is versatility—Randolph can be one of those three-to-four position type of players, Ellis can play two positions, and the players around them will give the team a number of combinations and mismatches to play with. Really, it’s the ideal Nellie team.
However, it's also too early to make any hard and fast judgments about this team. Despite all their talent, Warriors fans will have to be patient—the payoff for this team is to to threee years down the line.
So it seems that McCormick was right—the Warriors have managed to rebuild for the future without going into the tank. That is a noteworthy feat.
For fans of the tank strategy, consider that if they have faith in the young talent they already have, there's no need to tank just to get more lottery talent. This is a time for the franchise to show they can do something they've been notoriously poor at—developing players they already have.
The 2008-09 Warriors will have the same opportunity that the 2007-08 Trailblazers had—giving their young players experience that will payoff in the future. In that regard, Mullin has done an excellent job of buying the Warriors a three-year development window. The questions are whether they will develop as we expect, and what pieces they need to add.
Even with big signings this summer, they could still have approximately $14 million in cap space for the much anticipated 2010 free agent extravaganza (if they renounce a number of contracts).
If Belinelli doesn’t work out, three-point shooters to spread the court will be vital. If Ellis doesn't work out as a point guard, they can find a big guard to pair next to him (Joe Johnson would be a perfect fit next to Ellis). Otherwise, more versatile players at the two and four who can pass and defend would be useful.
Although the concerns about the void left by Baron Davis are valid, two things were clear by the end of last season—the Warriors were too dependent on Davis to win games, and that style of play was unsustainable.
While some may quibble with some of their signings since Davis’ departure, if you look at the big picture, what they have done is build a team around Ellis that should maximize his talent as a scoring guard and have an exciting future. For long-suffering Warriors fans, the next three years should be as exciting as any of the last decade.
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2 months ago
Very nice article Quentin. I did one on Monta as well:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/30271-who-is-the-guy-known-as-monta-ellis
from 2 months ago
Thanks for the comment, Scott.
And you're article gave some great background on Monta as well -- especially the pieces about how Nellie didn't like him at first. In fact, you can still hear Nellie make occasional off-hand remarks about how Monta doesn't get the plays, which I always worried about. But hey -- Monta wins games and is extremely efficient. No coach can hate that.
2 months ago
Great Article Quentin, Monta has a future in front of him.
2 months ago
Nice job. I like how you cite other sources in making your opinion. It really builds up your argument.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the comment Adam. Trying to keep it "fair and balanced"! ;)
2 months ago
Great work. Monta is beast. He will be a superstar in this league.
2 months ago
Great Work Quentin. I really appreciate your effort to produce this article. Must have taken a pretty long time. But I think, overall, it was one hell of an article. One thing though:
In your section about if the Warriors can make the playoffs in 2009. The "Box scores" that projects wins doesn't really work with the W'S. You said, "What those numbers show is that in losing Davis, Matt Barnes, and Mickael Pietrus to free agency, the Warriors lost approximately 16.32 wins."
I am not really sure why you included Barnes and MP in there. MP did not set foot on the court in the first half of the season and Matt Barnes was basically "out of service" for the entire season. So, I think BD, out of the 3 players mentioned, should be only accounted for in the "Box scores" system for last season.
In effect, I think they would have (the current roster of course) to win fewer games than you pointed out. Maybe my argument has a potential hole in it. So yee, just tell if there is. I'm waitin fo your response.
Thanks
from 2 months ago
Thanks for the comment Khalid...and yes, I've been slowly compiling this one for a while... I do think about the Warriors far too much. :)
Anyway, I have two responses to your question:
First, Pietrus played 66 games at 19.9 mpg and Barnes played 73 at 19.4 mpg... so that's rather significant, even though both did miss time and Barnes played poorly most of the year. I suppose your point is that they weren't very effective in that time... but even then, they played enough to be significant contributors even if we don't consider them as vital to the team's success. So from a basketball standpoint, I think we're in agreement that the Warriors should be able to make up their production.
But second, if you're implying that Barnes and Pietrus are not catastrophic losses, you're correct -- 9.53 of those 16.32 wins are attributed to Davis and Barnes/Pietrus only contributed less than six between them (the rest was a combination of players like Webber, Croshere, Mbenga, Perovic).
Regardless, the point is this -- getting back to 48 wins would be difficult, even just considering what it would take to replace Davis' production alone, which is close to 10 wins.
Does that answer your question?
from 2 months ago
Yeah, absolutely does.
Thanks for clarifying it.
2 months ago
Warriors will make the playoffs. I can't wait!
2 months ago
Nice article. The Warriors won't make the playoffs, but they will contend for a spot. A starting line-up of Ellis, Jackson, Maggette, Harrington, and Biedrins, with Randolph, Williams, Turiaf and Wright off the bench seems like a good team to me.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the comment. I obviously agree -- this should be one of the most exciting Warriors seasons to date.
2 months ago
First off, excellent article.
I agree with your take on the point guard position--it all depends on the style of ball they play. Obviously, in a motion offense, the point just brings the ball up and then quickly gives it up. In cases like that, it doesn't matter that the point is pass-first or shoot-first. All that matters is that he can bring the ball up the court without losing it (not as easy as people think--especially against a good defender who is pressing). Once he's in the half court, like I said, he can give up the ball and then operate in the same manner that a scoring guard would. So the whole "he's not a traditional point" argument doesn't apply.
Of course, in cases where the point guard is needed to set everything up, it's a different story. Look at Steve Nash, for example. Steve Nash was the wrong fit for Dallas, and one of the main reasons the Mavericks underperformed when it mattered most. Instead of being solely a playmaker for the weapons around him, Nash was insistent on trying to score. He'd bring the ball up, hold it for 18 seconds, and then make a decision. Much of the time he'd end up shooting. That's the last thing Dallas wanted him to do. They let him go--they didn't want him. And what happened? The Mavs improved and reached the Finals. Nash then landed in Phoenix where Coach D'Antoni could use him to his strengths. He told him to forget about defense and forget about half-court execution--two things Nash is weak at. Instead he wanted Nash to use his strengths, running and pushing the ball, and shooting/scoring off of the pick-and-roll. And look what it did for Nash's career, and the Suns, etc. And look at the Mavs--they were better off without him. So, it all depends on the style of ball you play.
The Warriors have a bunch of guys who can handle the ball relatively well. I imagine they're just going to run-and-gun. Ellis is fine for that.
2 months ago
Now, for the question of whether or not this team can make the playoffs, I think it's highly unlikely that they will. For starters, they'll be a shooting team, which means they're going to miss a lot more shots than they make. That's ok if you dominate the glass and/or play good defense, but the Warriors do neither particularly well (although they're not awful at rebounding). So right off the bat, they're going to be inefficient at executing. Also, I worry about how Jackson, Maggette, Ellis, Harrington, etc. can all get their touches and be happy.
I personally think Baron Davis was a huge part of their success. He's a winner, and I'm sure he was their undisputed leader. Now that he's gone, I think Warriors are in trouble. As much as I like the Maggette and Turiaf signings, those two guys do not make up for having lost Davis.
At the very, very, very best, I say 44 wins. Only way they're winning more games is if they make a trade mid-season and pick up a low-post threat better than Harrington (Brand would have been nice). But realistically, I think they'll win around 36 to 40 games. They're really not that good, at all.
The Jazz, Blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Mavericks, Hornets, Lakers and Suns will UNDOUBTEDLY be better than the Warriors. Then you have the Clippers, who I think are better than the Warriors at this point. The Nuggets are going down the drain, but if they make a deal, they can get in the mix. I'd definitely say 10th or 11th best record in the West, around 40 wins.
But in two years, sure, they can make some big acquisitions and become major contenders.
from about 1 month ago
Great comments A-Train.
I agree with you about touches, which is one of the most valid reasons that the Maggette signing is difficult to understand for people. I think Jackson will be content as long as the team is winning and as a secondary ball handler next to Ellis, I think he'll figure prominently in the offense. The guy who I think is odd man out is Harrington. He's good, but he's clearly the fourth (maybe fifth) option on offense in that starting lineup. A trade for another offensive rebounder would be ideal for this team.
The Clippers are good, but their roster is like the all-IR team: Davis, Camby, and now Jason Williams, not to mention Kaman who hasn't played 82 since his rookie year. Tim Thomas has not been a model of endurance either. But your point still holds -- there's really only one spot available in the playoffs in the West, and it's not likely that the Warriors will be the ones challenging for it.
2 months ago
I think they have a very bright future, but Ellis has too much Steve Francis in him for my taste(in skills) I would trade Jackson and Harrington to contenders while there trade value is high, and hope that Marcus Williams can be a regular point and let monte be the shooting guard that Francis, and Marbury, should have been relegated to earlier in their careers, (And Larry brown was smart enough to do with AI in Phila!)
[And I'm a knick fan and I hate LB.. but gotta give him credit for that one.]
It is just a lot to ask a young kid. Let him focus on his game, and winning with his game now... in 5 or 7 years, he will be able to play point just from a better understanding of the entire game.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the comment Paul.
But, I almost wanted to flag this as offensive -- how dare you compare Ellis to Francis and Marbury! ;)
Anyway, I partially agree -- but as stated previously, it's about how you play him less so than what position you want to play him in. We know he's a scorer on a team full of scorers. As A-Train said, put everybody in motion and force the defense to keep up with Monta on and off the ball. But I agree that if you put the entire burden of making plays on him, it's a disservice to the team and his talent.
I would definitely trade Harrington ASAP... Jackson I would hang onto because I think he's one of the players that will allow Monta to continue playing "his game" while giving Marcus Williams some time to develop (he's not close to a finished product either).
Monta is young, but he's demonstrated that he's clearly tough and he seems ready to take on whatever the team will give him -- putting him on the ball in a position to succeed is more important than waiting for him to develop into a traditional point guard.
2 months ago
Excellent writeup, Q.
about 1 month ago
Good article. This seems to of been a good offseason. I think there has been a Warriors article everyday. Which is not the norm, I usually dread this time of year with no basketball or football, but its flying by.
I think another key for the Warriors is motivation by Baron leaving. I think Monta and Jack will elevate thier game.
If Bellinelli shows up this season and Randolph is half as good as that hype, I can see them over 500 this year. The Nuggets barely beat out the Warriors last year and have gotten worse this year losing Camby and really have not gotten better. I can see Traiblazers taken their spot.
I also really see Dallas and Suns getting worse, not miss the playoffs worse, but just the adjustment period could take awhile.
I say if the Clippers make the playoffs, that says one thing, Baron is worth Arenas money and the Warriors really missed the boat. Hindsight is always 20/20, but I like the Warriors response to losing Davis.
Wish the Season would start already. Damn!!
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the comment Chris.
Great points about Baron -- I hadn't thought about the motivation piece.
If the Clippers make the playoffs, it will be hard to say it's Baron alone. Camby might have some influence on that as well defensively.
about 1 month ago
In depth stuff. The Warriors do look good on paper. Ellis is in the Diddy, A.I. mold and I too believe that he is a sleeper superstar in the making.
about 1 month ago
i think were going to be a bit better than you guys are giving us credit for. i think if we trade harrington for eithera big pg or for a real pf who can give us decent minutes(and isnt our 3 point shooter that was a joke...i think that having maggette will really help, getting to the line and on the court, and off of the court where his work ethic really will help the young players. i see our team winning 46-47 games but missing playoffs, but if we can trade harrington for value, i really think we have a shot at winning 51 or so. and guys, its not lac who will knock us out,camby isnt even that good of a defender. he piles up the stats but doesnt guard the pick and roll at all, and lets be honest, one of them will get hurt and kill their team, but if baron andkaman play at least 75 games each, they will be a pretty formidable duo that will hurt some teams playoffs hopes(including us)
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