Nate Diaz, while being a fantastic fighter, hasn't been as consistent as the UFC would like.
After winning the TUF 5 tournament, he has gone 6-3. While that is a good record, a lot of it has some against inferior competition. His losses have all come against good fighters who push the pace.
His fight with Marcus Davis will be a real barnburner, and that's why Dale De Souza and I have made it this event's edition of Creature vs. Creature.
Although Diaz is not the great striker that his brother is, Diaz can hang with just about anyone on his feet. He won't be outstriking BJ Penn by any means, but his technicality can be a big problem for pretty much anyone. Unfortunately, due to his professional boxing background, it won't be Marcus Davis.
No, if Diaz wants to win this fight, he needs to take Davis down, and I think he'll do exactly that.
While he's grappling, Diaz holds a distinct advantage. Although Davis has only been submitted once, he's also never fought a grappler like Diaz, and that will ultimately be his downfall.
On the ground, Diaz can go in a multitude of directions. He can work to advance his position. He can open up with some ground and pound and force Marcus to give up a dominant position. In any case, Diaz should have an easy time with Davis on the ground.
Should he not find a dominant position, Diaz can always grind the fight out, but his gas tank may not have enough in it, and beyond that, haven't we seen Davis come from behind before?
I think that this is Diaz's fight to lose.
If he sticks to a smart gameplan, then there is no reason for him to lose this fight. That's why I'm predicting a second round submission for Diaz.
If you disagree with my reasoning, or you just want to view the losing side before it dies in a blaze of glory, click here to check out Dale De Souza's side of this fight.