Antonio Margarito says he will knock out Manny Pacquiao when they fight in November, the odds of that don't seem to be in his favor.
According to the Association of Boxing Commissions Margarito is “free to pursue licensure with any ABC member commission”.
What that means is that his one year suspension for wrapping his hands with an illegal substance is up, if he can find a state that will let him fight.
The California Boxing Commission voted 5-1 against him, but the word is that the fight will likely take place in Texas on November 13th of this year.
Pacquiao's manager, Freddy Roach thinks that the suspension was too short. But he also thinks the fight won't be close, his guy will win easy.
Here are some reasons why Margarito might be wrong about his prediction.
After fighting what some experts call a "club fighter" back in March of this year, will Margarito be ready for all that comes with fighting the pound for pound best fighter in the world?
This is the fight that has to quench everyone who was expecting Mayweather-Pacquiao.
Maybe the atmosphere and all the hype might get to him and he presses.
Whereas Pacquiao is used to the big fights and used to being followed around like a conquering hero.
This could play a part in the fight, especially if it is a short one.
Everyone talks about it, and in most sports you have heard the saying, "speed kills".
No where is that more meaningful than in a ring where two combatants are trying to knock each other unconscious.
The other saying is, you can't hit what you can't see. Pacquiao's speed will be a talking point until the fight happens.
It could be the determining factor.
Although he did fight back in March, Margarito hasn't fought top flight competition since his bout against Shane Mosley back in January of 2009.
Maybe going in against Pacquiao after mixing it up with a club fighter might not be the best idea.
Pacquiao is used to throwing hundreds of punches.
Will Margarito be willing to keep throwing and to try and get a decision if his knockout prediction doesn't come through?
Will he be able to keep throwing?
You wouldn't think that would be a problem when fighting someone as skilled as Pacquiao but because he is bigger than Manny, and knows that Pacquiao has never fought at the 154 pound weight, Margarito thinks he might be able to dominate the fight.
Underestimating Pacquiao's chin, punching power and toughness could be a fatal flaw.
If Pacquiao decides to not trade early and win rounds on points, will Margarito still be going for his knockout?
Will he get desperate or change up his own game plan to go for the win?
Often times it's the boxer that is looking for the big knockout that ends up flat on his back.
Going off of Margarito's last big name opponent, Shane Mosley, a knock out of Pacquiao doesn't look likely.
Before beating Margarito in a TKO, Mosley was quicker than him the whole fight.
And everyone who watches boxing knows, years ago Shane was lightning quick, but there is no way you can compare Mosley's speed the last few years to that of Manny.
The reason that the California Boxing Commission refused to give Margarito a license was because they said he hasn't shown proper remorse since being caught cheating.
One report said he was laughing after his fight in March and looked in the camera and said "Look, no plaster!"
If this is true and he isn't remorseful, maybe this type of cockiness will backfire in a fight against the best in the world.
This might come off as a bit flippant, but what if he felt he needed that extra aid to beat a fighter the caliber of Shane Mosley.
He won't have it in this fight, either.
Even though he has stated that Pacquiao is too small to give him problems, what if mentally he feels like he isn't hurting Pacquiao in this fight? Will he have what it takes to find the intestinal fortitude that is needed?
You don't bring a gun to a knife fight unless you think you might need it.
I'm not saying that Margarito isn't a top flight fighter. He has held belts and before the incident was highly regarded as a top tier boxer.
But with all the circumstance coming into this fight, it just seems like at this point in time Pacquiao is the better fighter, with a great trainer who comes up with fantastic game plans.
But we all know, as boxing fans, all it takes is one punch.