The Two Most Surprising Division Winners to Expect in 2008

Every NFL season always brings its own surprises.  I would love to go out on a limb and predict every one of the 256 regular season games for you, but I know I would only go about 50% at best.  None of you guys could do much better, either.  There will always be that handful of teams that gets 3 more wins than predicted and the handful that underachieve by losing a few winnable games.

So what I have done is look at the schedules.  Found out the "favorites" in each division.  Then I located the closest competitor in that division.  After using match ups to play out the schedule, what do I find?  The favorites won 6 out of 8.

The Patriots predictably walk away from the AFC East.  The Colts fight off the pesky Jaguars by a narrow margin.  The Chargers cruise to a sure AFC West crown.  The newly crowned favorite Vikings take the improved NFC North.  The Cowboys out duel the Giants for the NFC East title.  And the Saints hold ground in the underachieving NFC South.

So what does that leave us?  The AFC North and the NFC West.

What to expect in the AFC North:

It would seem that the nail-tough Pittsburgh Steelers would be able to slow down their closest competitors: the Cleveland Browns.  But the Browns will prevail.  I shall explain.

This team reloaded on offense.  Derek Anderson can do more than just manage a game.  And even if he can't, the more than capable Brady Quinn is there waiting in the wings.  However, this is Anderson's job and he loves to throw to Braylon Edwards.  The two had a great chemistry between them last year and expect that to continue.

Toss in their new addition, Donte' Stallworth, their Pro Bowl running back, Jamal Lewis, their versatile tight end, Kellen Winslow, and an ever improving offensive line, and this team has the fire power.

Now defense was a problem for this team last year.  But they add Shaun Rogers to that defensive line to slow down the run and gain a little pressure on the quarterback.  And the wily veteran Willie McGinest will be the leader on the field for that unit.  Look for them to be much improved and make just enough stops to give their offense a chance to play from the lead.

Looking at the schedule, they have a few tough non-divisional games: Dallas in Week 1, New York Giants in Week 5, and Indianapolis in Week 12.  But why do I give them a chance in all three of these games?  They are all three in the Dawg Pound.

Now I'm not the type of guy to run up and down the schedule and pick a winner for each game before the season starts.  But I will give them a win range.  The lowest I see is 10-6; the highest is 13-3.  For the latter to happen, they must play injury free for the most part, which they accomplished last season.

The Steelers have a similar schedule with Dallas, Indianapolis and the Giants at home, but Pittsburgh also draws a home game with the Chargers and tough road games against New England and Philadelphia.

I can see the Steelers topping out at 11-5, but no higher.  I give the edge to Cleveland.

The only thing I see going wrong for the Browns schedule-wise would occur if they somehow end up in a dead heat for the divisional crown.  If that would be the case, that goes into a very tough Week 17 match up against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.  Not favorable.

But I trust that Cleveland will have built up a nice lead in the division with a more potent offensive attack and a very surprising defense.  Cleveland wins the AFC North.

What to expect from the NFC West:

This has been the Seahawks' division for years.  Now there is a clear cut contender who looks as if they will be at least a pleasant one year wonder: the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals have had a lethal receiving corps for the past few seasons with Pro Bowl wide outs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.  Add in an above average tight end in Leonard Pope and All-Pro running back Edgerrin James, this offense can light up a scoreboard.

Defensively, they have a very underrated front seven and if their secondary holds up, they could be a top 15 defense.  They are extremely blitz happy and fly to the backfield.  A very underrated group indeed.

Moving on to the actual games, the Cardinals have an extremely easy non-divisional schedule.  Their first six non-divisional opponents are as follows: Miami, @ Washington, @ Jets, Bills, Cowboys, @ Panthers.

Out of those six opponents, it wouldn't be unfathomable to see them go 5-1 with Dallas being the obvious disadvantage.  In fact, it would be a disappointment for them to end that string with anything less.  Adding in their Week 1 game @ San Francisco, the Arizona Cardinals could start the season 6-1.  And if you throw in a favorable game in St. Louis immediately after that six game string, they are 7-1.

The schedule may catch up to them as the Giants and the Vikings go to Phoenix late in the year and the Cards go up to Foxborough to take on the Patriots in Week 16.  I can still see this team finish as well as 12-4.  But if they experience injuries and Matt Leinart still fails to take advantage of the weapons at his disposal, they can finish with a disappointing record of 8-8.  That still should be good enough to contend in this division.

As for the Seahawks, they lost their best receiver in DJ Hackett.  They have an aging line and a huge question mark at running back.  But until someone challenges them for the division crown, which the Cards will do this year, the title is expected to be theirs.

As for their schedule, they have a much tougher road in the first half of the year.  As the Cardinals can be expected to go 7-1 during their first half, the Seahawks encounter such games as this: @ Bills (tough in Buffalo), @ Giants, vs. Packers, and vs. Eagles.  It wouldn't be difficult to imagine them losing all four of those games.  At best, this team would go 5-3 through the first eight games.

As if playing catch-up all season isn't hard enough, they land this string of games from Weeks 10-13: vs. Cardinals, vs. Redskins, @ Dallas, and @ Patriots.  No better than 2-2 in that span.  Throw in Week 9 @ Miami, and this team is at best 8-5 going into the final 3 games.  But that can still be within striking distance.

If the Cardinals are a disappointment and Seattle wins all of their winnable games, this race could be close down to the final week.  And just like the AFC North, the NFC West closes the season with the top two contenders duking it out with the title potentially on the line.  Who gets the edge?

I would assume Arizona, since it is being played in Phoenix.

These both are great races and should be monitored throughout the season.  And if my predictions are close to correct, both divisional crowns could come down to clutch Week 17 match ups.  What fun!