Is Tim Tebow the Next Alex Smith? (Part II)

Note: This article is a partial response to College Football musings: From Tim Tebow to Rich Rodriguez, by WhatIfSports.

Part I, dealing with Tebow's passing, is here. Part II will discuss Tebow's dual-threat ability.

When Tebow's passing stats are compared to those of other NCAA QBs, it becomes clear that he did not run away with the Heisman because of his throwing abilities alone. (Although he certainly would have been in contention, if not the winner, anyway). As anyone who follows college football knows, Tebow's uniqueness comes from his running ability.

But how unique are Tebow's running skills? Are there any NCAA quarterbacks that match him?

Although it is not a huge sample size, Tebow did have a fair number of rushing attempts in 2006. His 84 carries as a backup QB was still a huge workload, considering that DeShawn Wynn led the Florida team with 143 carries that year.

Nonetheless, Tebow managed 5.3 yards per carry, which is in the top 50 in the whole NCAA in that category. He also scored eight TDs, although many of these seemed to be in goal-line situations. Here is what some running backs averaged with a similar number of carries to Tebow:

Javon Ringer (MSU): 86 carries, 5.8 yards per carry, one TD

Chris Wells (OSU): 104, 5.5, seven TDs

Justin Forsett (CAL): 119, 5.3, four TDs

Jacob Hester (LSU): 94, 4.7, six TDs

Rashard Mendenhall (ILL): 78, 8.2, five TDs

C.J. Spiller (CLEM): 129, 7.3, ten TDs

Many of these running backs were either backups (ex. Wells, who backed up Antonio Pittman, and Forsett, who backed up Marshawn Lynch) or change of pace backs (ex. Spiller playing with James Davis), but then again, so was Tebow. Of this short list, only Mendenhall and Spiller were obviously superior.

If you take away the number of carries (and thus add the starting running backs to the mix), here are some other comparisons:

Jonathan Stewart (ORE): 183, 5.4, 10

Ray Rice (RUT): 335, 5.4, 20

Adrian Peterson (OU): 188, 5.4, 12

Darren McFadden (ARK): 284, 5.8, 14

However, before we compare Tebow the runner to Adrian Peterson and McFadden, the two beasts of the last two NFL drafts, it's important to compare his stats to other running QBs:

Dennis Dixon (ORE): 94, 4.7, 2

Pat White (WVU): 165, 7.4, 18

In this comparison, Tebow goes 1-for-2.

Tebow has better rushing stats than Dixon (more than a half-yard more per carry and six more TDs). Dixon was a starter who had Jonathan Stewart to stretch the defense. Also, although this article is about rushing, Dixon lost six out his last nine games as QB in 2006, including a 38-8 wipeout in the Las Vegas Bowl against BYU.

White, on the other hand, was clearly superior to Tebow in YPC. A true running QB (like Tebow was in 2006), White had two games of 200+ yards rushing, as well as two games with four rushing TDs. He rushed for 145 yards in a bowl win (ironically, the Gator Bowl). However, White is not the bruising runner Tebow is and is not as good of a passer. It will be interesting to watch White this season, now that Rich Rodriguez is gone.

Lastly, here are three other rushing QBs and their best seasons:

Vince Young (Texas-2005): 155, 6.8, 12

Michael Vick (Virginia Tech-1999): 108, 5.4, 8 (5.9 ypc in 2000, but 1999 was the 11-0 regular season).

Steve Young (BYU-1983): 102, 4.3, 8

Not bad company, though VY's rushing in 2005 season was superior to Tebow's.

Tebow, as mentioned above, was a backup in 2006. In 2007, not only was he the No. 1 QB, but the secret was out: he was a fullback in disguise. Defenses began game-planning solely around Tebow. One important factor in the 2006 season was that Tim passed only once or twice a game. Defenses knew this and keyed on the run.

So why was the 2006 season important when analyzing Tebow's running ability? Because he was essentially a running back/fullback. In 2007, he became one of the most unique dual threat quarterbacks in NCAA history.

Tebow's 4.3 yards per carry was not among the top 100 in the country last season. But his 23 TD's made him sixth in the nation in scoring. And this doesn't count his 32 pass TDs. Tebow easily broke Emmitt Smith's UF record of 14 rush TDs in a season, and was seventh all-time in SEC season TD passes.

Pat White, by comparison, only had 28 total TDs. Dixon had 29 (20 pass, nine rush) in fewer games, still nowhere near Tebow's 55. Vince Young combined for 38 TDs in 2005.

Tebow's closest historical comparison, as a runner, seems to be Eric Crouch, who used to hold the NCAA record for most TDs by a quarterback in one season. He still holds the career TD mark. But Tebow's uniqueness comes from the fact that he is a bruising runner, whereas Crouch was (and Pat White is) shorter, lighter, and faster.

ESPN has Tebow listed at 6'3", 235, making him as tall as the average NFL QB. Crouch was considered too short to play quarterback in the NFL and dropped to the third round as a receiver. Pat White weighs much less than Tebow and may have a much harder time running in the NFL due to his reliance on speed and lack of bulk.

Someone commenting on Part I pointed out that Tebow and Ben Roethlisberger are quite similar. In college, Tebow has already rushed many more times than Big Ben ever did. However, if he is to survive in the NFL, he needs to emulate Ben and only run over a defender to avoid a sack or create a first down.

Tebow will probably have a much better NFL career than Alex Smith, but he could be similar in one aspect: QB of the 49ers.  If Tebow enters the 2009 draft, Smith may well be on the way out of SF and the Niners will probably have a high pick. Mark Martz loves doing crazy things with the offense, and who knows what Tebow could do under his guidance?

For now though, football fans can look forward to an exciting 2008 season, and Florida fans will hope that Tebow comes close to replicating his 2007 campaign.