Tim Tebow: The Next Alex Smith? (Part I)

Note: This article is a partial response to College Football musings: From Tim Tebow to Rich Rodriguez, by WhatIfSports.

By now everyone knows that Tim Tebow is Superman, the first underclassman to win the Heisman, an all-around good guy, etc, etc.

Thousands of articles/features/interviews have appeared in print, on TV, and on the Internet, discussing the greatness (or in some cases attempting to downplay the achievements) of the quarterback.

But what has Tebow accomplished so far, and what does this mean for his football future? Will he become the next Urban Meyer quarterback to become a bust in the NFL?

Tebow won the National Championship as a backup in 2006. However, in the championship game, he attempted and completed one pass (for a TD, of course). He averaged 3.9 yards per carry on 10 carries. He was a good change-of-pace QB for Chris Leak, and did rush for a TD.

It's tough to judge Tebow on his performance in the 2006 season. When he played, he played well. However, his best games were against Western Carolina and UCF.

2007 is, so far, the only real season we can look at where Tebow started every game.  Here are some stats, and comparisons with other QB's:

Passing Stats

Tebow had 32 touchdowns, making him eighth in Division I-A, with only 6 picks. He also led the nation with 9.4 yards per completion, and was No. 11 in completion percentage at 66.9 percent.

These are great stats; Matt Flynn, who won the National Title, only had a 21-11 season line.

Tebow doesn't approach the 48-14-8.0-71.8 line of Graham Harrell, but then again, Florida actually ran the ball more than few times a game and Tebow didn't have Michael Crabtree. Also, the TD/INT ratio is about the same. (In fact, Tebow's is better).  

There are a few other quarterbacks whose passing stats are similar to Tebow's. Some of them are:

Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)  36 TD-8 INT-9.2 YPC-63.1 percent completion rate.

Todd Reesing (Kansas) 33-7-7.8-61.9

And to a lesser extent:

Cullen Harper (Clemson) 27-6-6.9-65.1

Andre' Woodson (UK) 40-11-7.2-63.1

And from "non-power" conferences:

Ben Mauk (Cinncinnati) 31-9-8.1-60.9

Nate Davis (Ball State) 30-6-7.7-56.5

Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) 19-3-8.8-53.8 in 100 fewer attempts.

If Division I-AA is allowed, look at these stats:

Josh Johnson (San Diego) 43-1-9.9-68.4

Armanti Edwards, by the way, put up 17-7-8.8-66.7

There is one D-1A quarterback that could have given Tebow a serious run for his money: Dennis Dixon.

In three fewer games (Dixon was hurt early in the Arizona game, so really more like three and a half), Dixon put up 20-4-8.4-67.7; very good numbers. Tebow played with a cast for a few games, but Dixon's unfortunate injury undoubtedly kept him from serious Heisman consideration. 

Tebow played in the SEC, which annually features some of the best defensive players in the nation. And while this seems to lend credence to his Superman status, Tebow did not play well in some of the most important games. 

In the loss against Auburn, Florida fell behind 17-3, although Tebow did rally his team to tie the game in the fourth quarter.

Against LSU, Tim completed less than 50 percent of his passes, and his costly fourth-quarter interception helped the Tigers escape with a victory.

What does all of this show? Well not a lot, because the endless arguments over conference/non-conference schedule, overall talent of the team, and other factors always cloud comparisons. But it does demonstrate that overall, Tebow is very competitive with the best QB's in the country.

Not many QB's have the YPC, TD/INT ratio, and the completion percentage that Tim can boast. And Alex Smith never played in Death Valley.

So far, Tebow's accuracy bodes well for an NFL career. However, his passing alone does not make him the best player in NCAA football and a No. 1 pick. There are other QB's that could pass well if they were at UF, especially if they had Percy Harvin to throw to.

Combined with his passing skill, does Tebow's running ability make him No. 1 pick material?

Part II will cover Tebow's rushing stats, and his dual-threat status.