Despite having one of the best first names in the world, Ubaldo Jimenez has flown under the radar this year. After a great postseason showing in 2007, is Jimenez really a 24-year-old superstar in the making? Or is he just an average joe?
After a quick glance at his metrics, most people dismiss Jimenez as just another poor-to-decent starter stuck on a bad team. First of all, the Rockies are not a "true" bad team. They have many great players and outstanding potential. Things just aren't working out the way they were last year.
Is the pitching to blame? Probably. The five pitchers in the Rockies rotation who have the most innings combine for an ERA of 5.33. That's almost Ian Snell-esque.
Youth is the answer to the rotation question in Colorado. The oldest of the five starting pitchers is Aaron Cook, at age 29. He has an ERA of 3.58, while the youngest, Greg Reynolds, has an ERA of 6.71.
Then there is Ubaldo Jimenez. At 24, he is in the middle of the pack in Colorado, but anywhere else he would be considered extremely young.
Last year, Jimenez came on a week after the All-Star Break to ease an injury-plagued rotation. He was, much like in the minor leagues, very solid.
This is his first full season as a major-league starter. He's posted a slightly bloated 3.98 ERA through 22 games this year. He's also pitched 129 innings, which brings his average innings per start to just under six.
With a closer look, though, his poor metrics can almost solely be blamed on two bad starts.
The first of these horrible starts came against the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 25. Jimenez went 2.1 innings, giving up six runs on seven hits. He was solid after that until May 27, when he faced the Phillies. He went only four innings, giving up seven runs on 10 hits.
If you take those two games out of his starts this year, Jimenez's line is much better: 6-8, 122.2 IP, 3.23 ERA. Any pitcher can make a few poor starts. In this young pitcher's case, two horrible starts were the dampers on an otherwise great season.
Simple statistics like win-loss, ERA, and even WHIP are tough indicators of how good a pitcher actually is. Jimenez's FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching) is 3.90. This statistic eliminates everything that is not entirely in the pitcher's control. It includes, and places higher value on, things like home runs, walks, and strikeouts.
Because his FIP is lower than his ERA, you can tell that Jimenez is supposedly a good pitcher, but the defense he receives raises his ERA.
Another thing that is necessary to look at when evaluating pitchers is their line drive percentage. A good pitcher induces significantly more ground balls than line drives. Jimenez forces ground outs 57.4 percent of the time, fourth in major league baseball.
A good team will take those ground balls and get the base runner out. The Rockies aren't doing that as often as Jimenez would like. When his defense can't stop a runner from reaching base, the 24-year-old's mentality is greatly crushed. He must face another batter and hurl another five pitches at 95 mph.
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4 months ago
Good analysis. But I don't think you can drop out bad starts because if you do that to pretty much any pitcher, they look pretty good! Jimenez just has nasty stuff; control issues have been his problem. If he can iron those out then he'll be dominating. His high strikeout and high groundball rates make him suited for Coors Field so he might be the rare pitcher who can succeed there.
from 4 months ago
Very good point, but I gave Jimenez more leeway because of his youth. Thanks for the comment!
4 months ago
The problem with Jimenez has nothing to do with Jimenez. Dan O'Dowd and Clint Hurdle have put so much pressure on all of the pitchers on the roster. Franklin Morales, Ubaldo, Jeff Francis, and even Aaron Cook have had to deal with the fact that this team will not go out and spend money on at least one definitive ace. Francis should never have been an ace, nor would he be on any other roster.
Ubaldo has great stuff and great velocity, but all that can be trumped with pressure. Too much was put on this young staff's shoulders after the showing they had last season. The run of last year was special because it was so improbable, much like their pitching was last season. The Rockies came from nothing to contend for the Championship and their pitching was a big reason for that. No one could have predicted that.
With the right coaching, Ubaldo could be downright amazing, but the pressure may be too much.
4 months ago
Solid look at a solid young pitcher. One of the thrilling things about Jimenez is that he has gotten better, much better, as the season has progressed.
Now, the question is a follow up to Geoff's point. What will Jimenez's performance be when he is asked to again pitch in games where the pressure is amped up? He's been fantastic for the past 4-6 weeks, but the Rockies are still mediocre.
He has the talent to be the best pitcher ever produced by the Colorado organization, no question.
4 months ago
He's got some talent. But is it All-Star type talent? I'm leaning toward no.
4 months ago
Great article. I'd been thinking the same thing.
4 months ago
Ive been happy to have him on my fantasy team. But where are the strikeouts? Might seem like a "fantasy" stat at first, that doesn't mean a guy isn't a great pitcher, but the best pitchers almost always have good K numbers. I mean, the less batters to put the ball in play, the better. And with a 94 MPH heater, he should have more K's. But I guess he's still learning HOW to pitch.
I don't think he's as good as Morales, but he could have a solid, if not spectacular, career. Earlier today I was thinking to myself, if this was May and he had pitched like he has for the last month and a half, we'd be thinking of him in the same regard we thought of Edinson Volquez. Their hot streaks just came at different times in the season. (And Volquez has those Ks!)
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