Here in Chicago, there is a lot of talk about the "Cuban Missile," otherwise known as Alexei Ramirez, the second baseman for the White Sox. In a great piece in the Examiner, JJ Stankevitz discusses Ramirez's transition from an afterthought to an everyday player.
And while his growth has been remarkable, Ramirez is far from a star. He may have become overrated here in Chicago faster than Joey Chestnut can clean out your family barbecue.
Let's start with the fact that Ramirez is 26-years old. Since most baseball players hit their physical peak around age 27, there is not much more projection for him physically. He might gain a bit here and there with his peripheral skills, but it is unlikely that his core skills will improve significantly.
More troubling, his core skills seem to have some weaknesses that might become more obvious over time.
Much has been made of Ramirez's bat speed, and for good reason. His swing generates good power when he makes contact. This shows in the numbers, since he has eight HR and seven SB in 251 AB this year. Over a full season of about 600 at-bats, that's 19 HR and 17 SB. Plus, he comes into today's game with an avg. of .307. So far, so good.
- B/R Ticket Guide
The real red flags come up when you look at his peripheral stats. Even though JJ claims that Ramirez has to be aggressive to succeed, his OBP of .327 cannot be ignored because it points to larger problems.
Overall, his plate discipline is atrocious. His chase percentage (which means the percent of pitches he swings at that are outside of the strike zone) before two strikes is 25 percent (major-league average is 19 percent).
His chase percentage with two strikes is an incredible 52 percent (ML average is 38 percent). His chase percentage of non-competitive pitches, or pitches that are not even close to the strike zone, is 32 percent (ML average is 20 percent).
He cannot continue to hack away and expect to even maintain his current numbers. If he cannot learn to control the strike zone, pitchers will eat him up. It is not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
Outside of his coming offensive regression, there are signs that he is not a good defensive second baseman. While some believe that he is above average, the numbers don't support this.
So far this year, he has a RAA (Runs Above Average) of -9, meaning that his defense is nine runs below average this year. His RAR2 (Runs Above Replacement, adjusted for ballpark) is one, meaning that thus far, adjusted for ballpark, his defense has prevented precisely one more run than the worst defensive second baseman in the majors this year.
For comparison, the much maligned Dan Uggla has an RAA of nine and RAR2 of 27 this year.
So while White Sox fans are surely celebrating Juan Uribe's continued absence from the everyday lineup, and rightfully so, it is unlikely that Alexei Ramirez will be a long-term solution at second base.
He has certainly been a great story this year, but as pitchers start to exploit his lack of discipline, and his defensive shortcomings become more obvious, the bloom will come off the rose.
The "Cuban Missile" may need to be renamed the "Cuban Firework": a lot of sound and fury, but over in an instant.
comments (59) write a comment »
write a new comment
4 months ago
Good read..I don't think many were expecting great glovework from Ramirez coming into the season, if I remember right Guillen called his defense "raw" during the spring.
With that said, he has definitely earned the job at second base with his offense. He has a good combo of power and average for a middle infielder, but as you said he is a hacker. And that will turn into some long slumps. And I believe I saw that his line drive rate is low, around 15-16%, which is not that great. But the hope should be that he is hacking as he adjusts to MLB pitching. He was known in Cuba as a low walk, low strikeout guy as well. He will never be an elite player, but in the short-term let him play.
Also, I sure hope the rumor I read isn't true (even though I am an Indians fan) that the Sox are looking to move O. Cabrera to get Brian Roberts and move Ramirez to short. That would be a disaster in the infield. He barely can play 2nd. Is that trade off worth it? Cabrera is at the top of AL shortstops with the glove.
from 4 months ago
I don't think his lack of discipline is a problem that can be fixed. He's not young and top level pitchers are going to destroy him. The White Sox don't have other options at second right now but they should keep looking.
Moving Ramirez to short would be ridiculous. As you said, he can't play second, so somehow he can play SS? I doubt the White Sox have anything the Orioles really want, though, since their farm system is pretty dry. Though I never count Kenny Williams out of it; he's quite creative and willing to take chances.
from 4 months ago
Absolutely hysterical: any one who is remotely familiar with baseball and statistics for that matter, someone who makes a living in couching or scouting, or has played this game at a high enough level...... will tell you that if is that FIELDING statistics is a science, so to speak, that is in its infancy and as such is grossely unreliable bordering on useless. At best, it can complement what your hopefully discerning eyes are seeing; in no other team sport would anyone dream of rating a defensive player on "range factor" or "zone rating" - and for a good reason!
So instead of REVISING or even discarding the existing system as deeply flawed, you go the other way and actually distort reality/perception so it can fit your numbers. Minus-9 runs at 2B for Alexei, huh? LMAO.
I've watched nearly every White Sox game, either live or TIVO'd. Alexei Ramirez is a spectacular defensive 2B. Not only is he a premier athlete with near prototype size and agility, he also posseses a high game IQ (that's also evident in hitting which makes him that much different, longer-term, than his admittedly more powerful fellow free-swinger Soriao.... but I digress) and, unlike some established stars like Orlando Cabrera who or Derek Jeter who are prone to phoning it in at times or worry more about avoiding errors that would mess up their reputations, Alexei Ramirez is fearless and gives it full effort.
You blab about he only made 3-4 plays out of his "zone" all year? Are you insane? How many players do you know who made 4 - four - full speed barehand plays in a single game? (Game against the Royals on June 3rd, for your reference). Any time the ball is in the year, he's a 4th OF tracking it almost to warning track in fall territory on some plays since Jermaine Dye has lost a step and doesn't always pursue them... Did you see some of the glove flips on Sportcenter? Robbie Alomar would be proud, it takes some kind of coordination not to mention confidence to pull them off time and time again.
Is there room for improvement? Of course. It's a new position for him, it's easier than SS but it also has different technical challenges and routine of its own. There were a handful routine plays that he had bobbled this year but show me a young fielder that hasn't.
This is where you're showing your ignorance when you're comparing your average 26 year old blue chip prospect born in the U.S. who's had access to the BEST training modalities and best nutrition, not to mention socio-economic support network, from the earlist age... with someone like Alexei who came literally from nothing, was most likely undernourished as a child as it coincided with the fall of Soviet Union and East Germany that supplied so much food to Castro regime and then abruptly stopped....
While I don't think he's going to grow any more at 26, he can definately reap benefits of superior training and nutrition in the US.
4 months ago
Gordon Beckham
from 4 months ago
I'm not sure what you mean, but I'll try to respond to what I think you might be saying. Gordon Beckham won't be ready to play SS for a couple years. He might be ready in late 2009, early 2010, but that's pushing it. If you think he's trade bait, well, he can't be traded for a year since he just got drafted. So he won't be part of any deal for a bit.
4 months ago
yeah i just posted his name because i went to his high school and im a huge georgia fan. All i've really heard about his professional future (hopefully) is that they want to move him to 2nd because they believe (or at least did believe) ramirez is their SS of the future
from 4 months ago
Gotcha. He is a good player and should b a major leaguer. I'm skeptical of any plan to move Ramirez to short. From what I've heard and seen, Beckham should be able to stick at SS even if he's not outstanding. I wonder if now would be the time to move Ramirez, because the regression is probably coming...
4 months ago
That man is a magician in the field. And I would expect his .306 batting average to improve over the next several seasons because he will get used to the pitchers he is facing. He will be an all-star and I still think he is being overlooked on a national scale. From the countless barehanded plays he's made all season long to the glove scoops he's already patented, this guy is truly the only five tool player on the White Sox roster.
from 4 months ago
I'm sorry, the numbers simply don't support the argument that Ramirez is a good fielder. Regardless of how he looks in the field, he doesn't have any range. I think he's made something like 4 or 5 out of zone plays this entire season. That's awful. Just remember that your eyes aren't always telling you everything (Derek Jeter's defense is a great example of this; he looks smooth and occasionally makes dazzling plays, but he simply has no range to his glove side, making him well below average regardless of appearances).
As for his average...based on the peripherals, I'd give you about 5 to 1 that his average is below .300 next year. If he keeps swinging at everything, pitchers are going to eat him alive. He's not Vladimir Guerrero, or even Howie Kendrick, two guys with incredible bat control. I'd even give 2 to 1 that Ramirez's average will be below .300 by the end of this season.
4 months ago
dude you know a lot about stats ... but has 0 knowledge of playing baseball .... it's a lot more than nunmbers .....
from 4 months ago
You can ignore the stats if you want. But I wouldn't because they tend to be more accurate than casual observation unless, of course, it's observation by a trained scout (in which case, you would take the two and see how they fit together). In any case, the end of the season isn't far away. We'll see if his average ends up over and under .300, given regular playing time (I'm taking the under, for the record).
4 months ago
Ramirez is playing out of position at second base and will be the White Sox's starting shortstop next season, as it's unlikely the team will retain Orlando Cabrera.
I don't think White Sox fans expect Ramirez to be a star, and to say that he is overrated would be to say that the Cubs' Ryan Theriot is overrated. Cubs fans love Theriot because of all the things he does well. His hustle, his work ethic, and the fact that he always seems to make plays, just like Ramirez.
While it may seem that the fact that Cubs and White Sox fans go crazy for these guys makes them overrated, not so. Chicago fans just notice the hard work these guys put into such a small package, ala David Eckstein, and both are a perfect fit into each team's system.
Alexei Ramirez may never be an All-Star, a gold glove winner, or a silver slugger, but he's a very solid baseball player who knows the game and is incredibly athletic, and that's all White Sox fans ask, and hope for out of Alexei.
from 4 months ago
Thing is, second base is much easier than shortstop. If Ramirez's problems were his hands, then I'd agree. But his problem is his range. And that will only become more obvious if he were put at short, where he'd be expected to cover more ground. So a move to short would not alleviate his defensive problems at all.
I agree that fans can love players for many different reasons and not expect them to be stars. For example, one of my favorite players of all time is Jamie Moyer. He doesn't throw hard, doesn't put up top flight stats, but he comports himself with grace, works with younger pitchers, and competes like hell when he's on the mound. However, I see him for what he is: a back of the rotation NL pitcher who is teeters on the brink of disaster constantly.
Even if you just read some of the comments in JJ's column, you realize that fans ARE expecting him to keep up this level of offensive production. In fact, they believe that what he's showing now is his true skill level. Problem is, that's very likely not true. Add that to the notion that he's a good (or even great) defensive second baseman and you realize that fans are going to be very, very disappointed down the line.
I just want to poke a hole in the hype and show what Ramirez actually is: a defensively challenged, free swinging second baseman who may or may not stick around in the majors unless he learns some plate discipline.
4 months ago
Alfonso Soriano and Alexei Ramirez have comparable OBPs right now. Ramirez will develop power as he progresses in the majors. And, ultimately, I see Ramirez as a guy who hits .280-.300 with 25-30 home runs a year.
Also, saying that playing 2B is easier than SS is pretty weak, dude. Ramirez has played SS his whole life, and it's not easy to make that switch when you're used to playing one position your whole career. There are a lot of nuances to playing each position, and Ramirez hasn't picked up on all the ones at 2B. Also, there's that whole comfort factor—there's no way he feels as comfortable at 2B as he did at SS.
And I stick by my OBP comment. I agree that he could be better if he didn't swing at so many pitches out of the zone, but I don't ever envision him as a guy who will take a lot of walks. That's just a trait of a lot of latin players—them being very aggressive. If you try to take that away, their ability to hit usually goes with it.
from 4 months ago
Ramirez is 26, JJ. He's not young by baseball standard since he is right in his physical prime. I don't think he's going to have 25-30 HR power simply because he's not going to get enough good balls to hit. If he improved his plate discipline, maybe. But there is simply no reason to throw him strikes since he swings at pitches out of the zone so often. Pitchers are going to start making adjustments; the question is, will Alexei?
I don't think it's going to happen. All of his peripherals scream that he's been phenomenally lucky this year. His BABIP is .329, which is unsupported by his LD %. His true BABIP should be around about .288 using the quick and dirty LD % + .120. So there is going to be average inflation. And if his average drops about twenty points, which it very likely will, you're going to be looking at a hitter with an OBP of .307. Ouch.
To put Ramirez's hacking ways in perspective, his walk rate of 3.1% puts him in the company of Carlos Gomez, (3.6%), Tony Pena Jr. (2.6%), and Yuniesky Betancourt (1.7%). These are not good major league hitters. Why? Because they almost never get good pitches to hit. I don't think Ramirez is going to be an outlier here.
I'm not trying to be mean to second basemen by saying that it is an easier position than shortstop. It's the truth, though. Ramirez may have played short his entire life but there is absolutely no evidence that he can handle it in the majors. The Cuban leagues are different and stats of his time there are unavailable, as far as I can tell. So all we have to go on is what he's done so far, and it's not pretty.
Lastly, the Soriano comparison is bogus. Soriano had and has much more power and much more speed. I'd be happier with Ramirez's offense if he suddenly became a 40/40 guy, much like Soriano when he was (ahem) 26, with an OPS nearly 100 points higher than Ramirez's in a larger sample size. But since the likelihood of that happening is about the same as Anne Hathaway showing up at my door and proclaiming her undying love for me, I'm not holding my breath.
from 4 months ago
Alfonso Soriano's first full season in the majors he hit 18 home runs while striking out 125 times and walking only 29 times while hitting .268. And he was 25 years old. Pretty comprable to Ramirez.
At that time, Soriano was a free-swinging hitter much like Ramirez is now. Seven years later, Soriano is an All-Star caliber hitter at the age of 32. Why is it so unlikely that Ramirez will get better? It's not at all uncommon for a latin player to come in the league in his mid-20's and take a year or so to get his feet wet before living up to his true potential.
It happened with Soriano, they started there careers similarly, so why can't it happen with Ramirez?
from 4 months ago
It's unlikely because it was hugely unlikely for Soriano to become the player he is today. I'm not saying that Ramirez has zero chance to become a good player; all I'm saying is that the odds are against it and people are treating him (here at least) like he's a sure thing. There are very few players who can sustain Ramirez's lack of plate discipline at the major league level and survive. The vast majority of players with Ramirez's skill set fail because good pitchers feast upon impatient hitters who chase pitches out of the zone.
4 months ago
I think tonight disproves this article. The White Sox bats were cold. Alexei Ramirez WAS the White Sox offense today. Hit hit two doubles and single in his first three at-bats.
He also also good range for playing second base, not being a natural second baseman.
I am almost starting to agree with Hawk that "Ramirez is the best baseball player on the White Sox."
from 4 months ago
Two words: sample size.
from 4 months ago
not really. the way he played today is really indicative of the way he's played all year.
from 4 months ago
He's had under 300 AB so far. So yeah, pretty small sample size with a likely regression to come thanks to his unsupported BABIP.
Again, players like Ramirez can go on hot streaks where it appears that they can do no wrong. But it is highly probable that he's going to have an abysmal stretch in the coming weeks that will bring his numbers back to where they should be. And if it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next year.
4 months ago
Agree with those that say Ramirez will start at short next season. I do not expect Orlando Cabrera to be back at all. In a few years, I would love to see a duo of Ramirez and Gordon Beckham at the middle of the infield.
4 months ago
I'm sorry, but there's not a legit stat available that judges range. You need to watch the games and then you would know that he has above average range. He's fielded balls on the 3rd base side of second and maybe you saw the #1 "web gem" this week about 4 feet from first base.
The comparisons to Soriano are semi-legit. Neither have any patience at the plate and have shown comparable power at the same age. Alexei will probably never be 40/40, but 25/25 is likely and Soriano is really a DH clowning around in LF and Ramirez is and will be an above average SS.
from 4 months ago
There are very good defensive statistics out there. Do you read any Bill James? Sabermetricians have been developing these for quite some time with some success. The plus minus system isn't perfect but it does a fairly good job.
You have to remember that it is hard to tell when a play is made simply due to great fielder positioning (very much like it's hard to tell apart good pitching from good fielding). During a play, it's nearly impossible to catch all of the moving parts at full speed. You have to know where all of the fielders were positioned to begin with, which can be tough to do. I could probably cite a dozen plays where a shortstop fielded the ball on the 1B side of second thanks to a shift. In isolation, it looks like an amazing play when in reality it was simply due to the shift.
I don't think the comparisons are very good since they are jumping the gun quite a bit. We have a limited sample size to work with and the probability of any player with Ramirez's peripherals of becoming a player comparable to Soriano is tiny. Most become victims of their own aggressiveness.
4 months ago
Absolutely hysterical: any one who is remotely familiar with baseball and statistics for that matter, someone who makes a living in couching or scouting, or has played this game at a high enough level...... will tell you that if is that FIELDING statistics is a science, so to speak, that is in its infancy and as such is grossely unreliable bordering on useless. At best, it can complement what your hopefully discerning eyes are seeing; in no other team sport would anyone dream of rating a defensive player on "range factor" or "zone rating" - and for a good reason!
So instead of REVISING or even discarding the existing system as deeply flawed, you go the other way and actually distort reality/perception so it can fit your numbers. Minus-9 runs at 2B for Alexei, huh? LMAO.
I've watched nearly every White Sox game, either live or TIVO'd. Alexei Ramirez is a spectacular defensive 2B. Not only is he a premier athlete with near prototype size and agility, he also posseses a high game IQ (that's also evident in hitting which makes him that much different, longer-term, than his admittedly more powerful fellow free-swinger Soriao.... but I digress) and, unlike some established stars like Orlando Cabrera who or Derek Jeter who are prone to phoning it in at times or worry more about avoiding errors that would mess up their reputations, Alexei Ramirez is fearless and gives it full effort.
You blab about he only made 3-4 plays out of his "zone" all year? Are you insane? How many players do you know who made 4 - four - full speed barehand plays in a single game? (Game against the Royals on June 3rd, for your reference). Any time the ball is in the air, he's a 4th OF tracking it almost to the damn warning track in fall territory on some plays since Jermaine Dye has lost a step and doesn't always pursue them... Did you see some of the glove flips on Sportcenter? Robbie Alomar would be proud, it takes some kind of coordination not to mention confidence to pull them off time and time again.
Is there room for improvement? Of course. It's a new position for him, it's easier than SS but it also has different technical challenges and routine of its own. There were a handful routine plays that he had bobbled this year but show me a young fielder that hasn't.
This is where you're showing your ignorance when you're comparing your average 26 year old blue chip prospect born in the U.S. who's had access to the BEST training modalities and best nutrition, not to mention socio-economic support network, from the earlist age... with someone like Alexei who came literally from nothing, was most likely undernourished as a child as it coincided with the fall of Soviet Union and East Germany that supplied so much food to Castro regime and then abruptly stopped....
While I don't think he's going to grow any more at 26, he can definately reap benefits of superior training and nutrition in the US. And the experience of playing through the league, getting used to the huge crowds, media can only help.
from 4 months ago
Bill James and many others disagree with you, and for good reason. And while I'm appealing to authority, it's a bit silly to claim that "anyone who is remotely familiar with baseball and statistics...or has played this game at a high enough level" doesn't take fielding statistics into account. Mostly because the best baseball organizations out there (Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Padres, etc.) take defensive statistics quite seriously.
You may disagree with the systems out there. True, they have their flaws. But they do a far better job of objectively analyzing a player's actual defensive ability than your eyeballing. Opinions like "How many players do you know who made 4 full speed barehand plays in a single game" lead to players like Jeter getting gold gloves.
So no offense, but I'm tossing my hat in with Bill James here.
4 months ago
"Mostly because the best baseball organizations out there (Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Padres, etc.) take defensive statistics quite seriously"
Not as primary basis for player evaluation of a player's defensive prowess, projectability. Those organizations have very well-paid & experienced scouts, coaches and manegement execs who drive their decision-making in that respect, admittedly after consulting with the number-clunchers. You seem to have gotten the dynamic backwards here.
"You may disagree with the systems out there. True, they have their flaws. But they do a far better job of objectively analyzing a player's actual defensive ability than your eyeballing."
Except, they do not. And your preposterous premise that Ramirez can't play 2B is a prime example of how laughably incapable your quantification model is in accurately analyzing a player's defensive contribution/worth. Similar to Andruw Jones back in early 2000 finishing dead last in value according to the defensive stats popular at the time; and yet anyone who watched him in his prime can tell you hen was the best defensive CF in the game.....before knee injuries, eating habits and loss of interest took their toll.
from 4 months ago
They take these numbers very seriously. Scouts will always be a vital component in player evaluation, no doubt. But there are situations where scouts don't always get the complete picture and that's where sabermetricians step in. They're not at odds, they're not hierarchical, they're complimentary. But scouting reports on Ramirez had him as either a CF or 2B with a good arm and average range. Thus far, that has been borne out. He is an average 2B at best and right now, well below average. It may be an adjustment period but as for now, he's not an outstanding or even good defensive 2B by scouts or statistical standards.
As for your Andruw Jones quote, it's simply......wrong. One particular stat at the time ranked him dead last but it is no longer in use so its relevance here is suspect. Other statistics had him as the best defensive CF by a wide margin and some of those are still in use, though in revised form.
That's the difference between statistics and a fan's opinion. The statistics are analyzed, dissected, and ultimately, improved thanks to rigorous evaluation of their accuracy and usefulness. A fan's opinion is not.
For proof: name the five best defensive SS and 2B in the game today. They're pretty obvious but I bet that you omit quite a few. And I can even tell you why. They make spectacular plays look routine so they don't show up on Sportscenter or Baseball Tonight. Also, their skills are subtle, like reading a ball of of a bat so they end up in position for a play instead of having to make a flashier but riskier play. But go for it. Show that your eye is as good as a scout's eyes or (gasp!) the numbers.
4 months ago
"Similar to Andruw Jones back in early 2000 finishing dead last in value according to the defensive stats popular at the time; and yet anyone who watched him in his prime can tell you hen was the best defensive CF in the game.....before knee injuries, eating habits and loss of interest took their toll."
Mikei is spot-on here: that's what I don't like about completely discounting eyeballing a player and evaluating what you see on the field. Yes, we all don't have the eyes of professional scouts, but anyone who's played the game of baseball will tell you that Alexei Ramirez is pretty damn good at playing the game. All the offensive stats brought up by Matthew are certainly valid, but they don't tell the whole story. Stats never have and never will tell the whole story of a player.
I'm personally with Hawk Harrelson when he says Alexei Ramirez is the best baseball player on the White Sox. Does that mean he's the best statistical player? By no means is he (Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye have something to say about that). But, come on, Matthew, can you at least acknowledge that for a guy to come over straight from Cuba and have the kind of offensive success he is having, it's a little bit impressive? Like I said in my article, going from Cuba to the majors is like jumping from A-ball straight to the majors. You have to be incredibly talented AND have great baseball smarts to make that jump. Alexei Ramirez has both.
from 4 months ago
I completely agree that he's a fantastic story and it's amazing that he's done so well in such a short time.
But my personal feeling about his storyline has nothing to do with my assessment of him as a player. If I'm going to say "Alexei Ramirez is a sure-fire, 100% guaranteed success," I'd be lying. Watching him play worries me because he swings at everything and plays out of control in the field (surprisingly, much like a young Soriano).
Players like him tend to be fan favorites; they play hard, they do spectacular things, and they are great stories. But if you're looking at him from a pure value standpoint, you have to ignore those biases and look at his true value. How likely is it that he is going to keep up his offensive production? How many of his spectacular plays are a result of him being out of position and having to make up for it with pure athleticism?
These are the questions I want to raise because they are extremely relevant. I'm happy that people disagree with me. I just wish that they got the point instead of skewering statistical analysis as a tainted phrase, or trying to make me out as some heartless pencil pusher in an ivory tower.
from 4 months ago
I completely agree that they're relevant. If they weren't, he'd be Albert Pujols.
How likely is it that he is going to keep up his offensive production?
I don't think he's going to hit .320 for his whole career, but I believe that he has the ability and smarts to learn and adjust to the league and the league adjusts to him. Believe me, I'd be satisfied with .280 out of Alexei any day.
How many of his spectacular plays are a result of him being out of position and having to make up for it with pure athleticism?
A lot. But again, I'm going to play the comfortable card and say he's not exactly comfortable at second base. There's really nothing anybody can go on for how he'll perform at short next year except his play in Cuba, which was, by all reports, stellar.
I like the discussion you've created here, Matthew. While I may not agree with all your points, I certainly see where you're coming from. Keep up the good work.
from 4 months ago
Agreed, JJ. Your article made me take a closer look at Ramirez and I was honestly surprised by what I found. I attended a couple White Sox games this year and was generally impressed by his play. But I had to write what I knew, not what I thought.
As for his hitting, I think .280 is definitely a more realistic idea of where his average will end up. I'd even push it and say .290 if he can maintain or increase his LD percentage. But I would be uncomfortable with having a hitter with an OBP of .315 in my lineup every day unless he has some serious, serious power.
As for his defense, I agree that an adjustment period might be the culprit. I was trying to depict him for what he is right now, and what he will most likely become in the future. There are definitely better outcomes possible and I would be happy to see them.
from 4 months ago
"But I would be uncomfortable with having a hitter with an OBP of .315 in my lineup every day unless he has some serious, serious power."
Funny thing, though, is that a .315 OBP would be an improvement over Brazo de Fuego/Juan Uribe's production in the nine-hole for the better part of the last three years. At least Alexei gives you the chance to pick up a hit every time he comes up. Juanie...well, not so much.
from 4 months ago
Isn't that an old joke?
"There are four ways to make an out in baseball. You can strike out, ground out, fly out............
Or you can be Juan Uribe."
4 months ago
"anyone who's played the game of baseball will tell you that Alexei Ramirez is pretty damn good at playing the game. All the offensive stats brought up by Matthew are certainly valid, but they don't tell the whole story"
.
I would like to strongly emphasize that DEFENSIVE stats are notoriously inaccurate and simplistic (as there are far too many factors and variables involved).
I am not talking about rudimentary statistical tools like OBP, ERA+, which we all use.
Again, I think Mathew misunderstands something: Red Sox and pretty much all other organizations invest money in software that analyses Zone Rating - and I'll admit that they are getting better at it every year, but still nowhere good enough to replace human judgement - is similar to all the $$$ that have been poured in alternative fuel energy in last few decades even though we likely won't reap benefits for another decade or three.....
from 4 months ago
Thing is, Mike, that scouts generally agree with me. He was scouted as having a good arm and decent range. And that's for CF or 2B, not shortstop. I think any organization would take a good, hard look at his defensive statistics because they are not only bad, they're awful. It may only be a matter of coaching and experience at 2B like some have said. But I doubt it.
As for the last comment, it's silly. The Red Sox and other organizations are already reaping the benefits of their investments in defensive statistics. Just as some of us are already reaping the benefits of alternative energy technologies (house-mounted solar panels, high-efficiency light bulbs and appliances, bio-diesel, etc.).
4 months ago
QUOTE: If I'm going to say "Alexei Ramirez is a sure-fire, 100% guaranteed success," I'd be lying. Watching him play worries me because he swings at everything"
_________________________________________________
He is a hacker, no question about it. That's how he was taught to play and that is somethng that Sox are working with him on every day.
But because of his natural plate coverage, coordination, underrated strenght (for someone who could use 10 muscle from the superior American style training/nutruition in the off-season) and quickness, he can get away with being ultra-aggressive.
I disagree with you that he's shown no strides in laying off pitches in the dirt, or at his head - in fact, as his batting average rose from .130 in May to 315 in July, I'd say he is making adjustments slowly but surely.
___________
QUOTE:
and plays out of control in the field (surprisingly, much like a young Soriano)"
______________________________________________________
Again you go with reactionary, lazy Soriano comparisons. Soriano's is from Dominican Republic where American presence was far more prevalent than in Cuba, and by being in the Yankee organization you'd expect him to be further along in development than Ramirez.... And even considering all that, Soriano's first year in the big leagues at the age of 25, he was FAR from all-world hitter.
And
Players like him tend to be fan favorites; they play hard, they do spectacular things, and they are great stories. But if you're looking at him from a pure value standpoint, you have to ignore those biases and look at his true value. How likely is it that he is going to keep up his offensive production? How many of his spectacular plays are a result of him being out of position and having to make up for it with pure athleticism?
These are the questions I want to raise because they are extremely relevant. I'm happy that people disagree with me. I just wish that they got the point instead of skewering statistical analysis as a tainted phrase, or trying to make me out as some heartless pencil pusher in an ivory tower.
4 months ago
His batting average rise has a lot to do with an increase in his LD percentage, not his plate discipline. Plus, it's inflated because he's been pretty lucky. He definitely has the skills to hit around .280-.290 in the majors. But his plate discipline is unlikely to improve much and may become an Achilles heel.
As for your Soriano comment, I only brought him up because others were comparing his hitting skills to Soriano's (which I think is getting a little too enthusiastic). Again, it was unlikely that Soriano was going to become Soriano. I'd be happy to see Ramirez suddenly morph into an All-Star but at this point, it seems unlikely. A regression to the mean is the more probable outcome, limiting his value unless he can make the necessary adjustments. That's what I'm saying, no matter what words you try to force into my mouth.
4 months ago
QUOTE: If I'm going to say "Alexei Ramirez is a sure-fire, 100% guaranteed success," I'd be lying. Watching him play worries me because he swings at everything"
_________________________________________________
He is a hacker, no question about it. That's how he was taught to play and that is somethng that Sox are working with him on every day.
But because of his natural plate coverage, coordination, underrated strenght (for someone who could use 10 muscle from the superior American style training/nutruition in the off-season) and quickness, he can get away with being ultra-aggressive.
I disagree with you that he's shown no strides in laying off pitches in the dirt, or at his head - in fact, as his batting average rose from .130 in May to 315 in July, I'd say he is making adjustments slowly but surely.
____________________________________________________
QUOTE:
and plays out of control in the field (surprisingly, much like a young Soriano)"
______________________________________________________
Again you go with reactionary, lazy Soriano comparisons. Soriano's is from Dominican Republic where American presence was far more prevalent than in Cuba, and by being in the Yankee organization you'd expect him to be further along in development than Ramirez.... And even considering all that, Soriano's first year in the big leagues at the age of 25, he was FAR from all-world hitter.
And many will disagree with you completely: Unlike Soriano, Alexei Ramirez displays high defensive IQ and poise. He is very much under control even on the most technically difficult plays like glove flips, pick-offs off 1st base, and barehand plays off a hope (not just rolling on grass)
Whereas Soriano had difficulty deciding which base to throw to, and only got worse as he transitioned to OF.
And that arm strenght....
_____________________________
QUOTE:
How many of his spectacular plays are a result of him being out of position and having to make up for it with pure athleticism?
_______________
I'll tell you right now: NOT MANY. He is aggressive and athletic, which nets you a lot of defensive value.... but he is also adequate in anticipating plays, positioning, taking good angle, sound fielding technique.
Sure, as a still-young player learning new position/role/team/language, Alexei does make mistakes. But all things considered, the progress he's made since only a few months ago in Spring Training where he did look somewhat "raw".... is nothing short of stunning.
I understand your point and concerns. But you're not dealing with some Big Ten Wide Receiver pretending to be a baseball player here, where it's a matter of time before his lack of game IQ, plate discipline, technique, etc will catch up with him...... No, Alexei Ramirez is a baseball lifer, through and through.
He won't be hitting .380+ or whatever he is hitting since becoming a ML regular when Uribe went down, but I truly believe Ramirez will end up suprising a lot of people like you, Matthew.
from 4 months ago
He might and I understand where you're coming from. We'll see how he plays after the break.
4 months ago
Just as some of us are already reaping the benefits of alternative energy technologies (house-mounted solar panels, high-efficiency light bulbs and appliances, bio-diesel, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Full benefits and mainstream application, is what I obviously meant. And we're years/decades away.
Red Sox are reaping no reaping no more benefits than many other organizations, including the White Sox who employ similar software and crunchers as a reference point.
What separates the Red Sox is - ready for this? - 120-150 million dollar payroll and David Ortiz/Josh Beckett postseason heroics. Not how many runs such "amazing" fielders like Manny, Ortiz, Millar, Youklis, Lugo, Pedroia, Belhorn, Varitek, Mirabelli, Crisp, Nixon, Damon saved over league average....
(Though I do like JD Drew in RF and Lowell is decent at 3B, well)
from 4 months ago
It wasn't obvious. There will always be those who are ahead of the curve and those who lag behind.
That's the entire point. The teams that are able to best evaluate talent are those who tend to win. The Red Sox know that Manny is a significantly below average fielder but they are also aware that the Green Monster blunts the impact of that (while his bat creates his value). Ortiz doesn't field. Youkilis is well above average at first (+19 last year). Lugo had been a little above average at SS before his complete collapse as a decent player. Pedroia is slightly above average at 2B (though some Red Sox fans would argue that he's AMAZING). Varitek was above average at catcher last year (+8 last year). Crisp is an outstanding CF and the numbers support that (+29 last year!).
So yes, the Red Sox have quite a few average to above average defenders. By my count, that's an above average guy at CF, RF, 3B, and 1B, with average guys at 2B and C. The SS situation is still fluid though Lowrie is supposed to be at least average there. It seems like their fielding assessments are quite good, regardless of whether they're based more, less, or equally on stats or scouting.
4 months ago
Matthew,
I don't want this to become a "stats vs. scouting" piss match, but defensive stats still "suck". How's Lugo and Drew working out for James so far?
I'm a season ticket holder for the White Sox and Alexei was playing "straight up" when he fielded the ball on the 3rd base side of second and flipped to Cabrera to get a force. He was playing on the grass this week when he made the play on Blaylock.
He is a hacker and will, most likely, always be a hacker, but his speed, power and defense will make him a better player than Soriano, especially with Alfonso stuck playing defense in the NL.
from 4 months ago
Drew had been an above average RF historically (+16 the year before the Sox signed him). He wasn't great last year but has been better this year. Lugo's complete collapse was unexpected. He had been productive until then. No one is right all the time, but I believe that James has quite a bit to do with why the Red Sox are the best baseball organization in the world right now.
And as for Soriano, he was +18 last year in LF for the Cubbies. So.......yeah. The probability of Ramirez becoming a more valuable player than Soriano this year or next is highly unlikely.
4 months ago
Thing is, Mike, that scouts generally agree with me. He was scouted as having a good arm and decent range.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
How many of them even saw him play on any kind of consistent basis to make such definitive determination?
What they had was a sports equivalent of a sneak preview movie trailer, nothing more. And since we all bought into it, and since Alexei got off to such a slow start.... that's why his recent emergence seems so startling, in a good way.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I think any organization would take a good, hard look at his defensive statistics because they are not only bad, they're awful.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not supported by daily reality as witnessed by many fans and professionals. There is a reason why now even the notoriously slow to catch up ESPN people are starting to sling praise and hype his way.
from 4 months ago
I agree that his emergence is a great story. But don't you think that your opinion might be a bit biased because it's so startling? Low expectations sometimes lead to overly optimistic thinking when the long-shot actually produces. I'm trying to ratchet down expectations to be more in line with what is likely to happen, and perhaps make people rethink what exactly it is that they are seeing.
As for ESPN, does it really matter what they think one way or another? I know that some there agree with me and some don't. It doesn't mean much either way.
4 months ago
Any defensive stat that has Soriano being good, other than strong arm, is complete BS. +18? What's that? 18 replacement players, from AA, are better defensively? You just completely lost me.........
from 4 months ago
Any defensive stat that has Soriano being good, other than strong arm, is complete BS. +18? What's that? 18 replacement players, from AA, are better defensively? You just completely lost me.........
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Is Soriano really +18? This year when he is barely able to run and has prompted Lou Piniella to flip out during press conferences?
And his arm is nothing special anymore, everyone is running on him.
from 4 months ago
It means that last year, he prevented 18 more runs with his defense than the average left fielder in the baseball.
I haven't seen much of Soriano this year but then again, he's been injured quite a bit. It is possible that he has regressed there since he is right on the edge of his prime physical years (baseball players tend to improve until age 27, have their peak years from 27-32, and then decline). For a player like Soriano who relies so much on his physical skills, any physical regression may result in obviously worse results.
I'll check him out when he gets off the DL and let you know.
4 months ago
That's the entire point. The teams that are able to best evaluate talent are those who tend to win
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Give any knowledgeable fan 150-200 million which is what Red Sox get to spend, and they'll "evaluate" up a veritable storm :)
And even sabermetricians will tell you that Postseason is if not a comlete crapshoot, then certainly doesn't lend itself to any of form of quantification or statistical analysis.
Crisp, Youklis, Pedroia, Tek great defensive players? Oh my.
from 4 months ago
I don't know about that. There are plenty of teams who cannot evaluate their talent at all. The Astros are a fantastic example, as are the Giants.
And yes, the post season is a crap shoot. But when did I mention it at all?
Anyway, I said that Pedroia was average, Youkilis above average, and Crisp gold glove caliber. In Crisp's case, it should be fairly obvious. He gets fantastic reads off the bat, has good speed, and takes great routes to the ball. Perhaps that changed a bit this year but last year, he was one of the top defensive CF out there. I'm not sure how much you've seen of him, but he really is outstanding.
from 4 months ago
"It means that last year, he prevented 18 more runs with his defense than the average left fielder in the baseball."
Please disregard this stat in the future because any stat that suggests what you stated in complete BS.
from 4 months ago
Could you give an explanation? That's a rather bold statement to make without anything supporting it.
4 months ago
Making predictions on how a player will perform in the future purely on statistics while the player is clearly performing on the field is for eggheads. Major league teams send humans to scout players for a reason. They need to see with their eyes. While Matthew's science is of some interest he disregards the fact that Alexei Ramirez had a bad start, made adjustments and done nothing but improve his entire game all season. According to Matthew's science Konerko can't be playing as bad as he is because statictically he isn't that bad a player. Check out the field sometime.
from 4 months ago
Konerko has been playing badly but he's more likely to return to previous levels of production than someone with less of a track record. We know what Konerko's skills are, and while he may start his regression due to age (he's 32 as well), it's unlikely to be as extreme as what we've seen so far this year.
Also, it's flat-out wrong to say that I or other SABR guys don't watch the game. Personally, I've been learning how to break down film and scout players so I can get an idea for the mechanics of their swing or delivery, their defensive prowess, baserunning skills, etc. Putting scouts and stats in opposition is a simplistic argument that ignores the complexities of player evaluation.
Finding out WHY there are discrepancies between what the casual eye sees and what is actually happening is at the heart of both scouting and statistical analysis. They are not opposing fields, they are complimentary ones.
4 months ago
Could you give an explanation? That's a rather bold statement to make without anything supporting it.
Watch any game......Soriano is brutal and any stat that suggests otherwise is bunk. He cannot do anything in the field other than throw or pick up his error after missing another routine fly.
4 months ago
Matthew, you keep coming back to how he's "not young," but he is young to the American game. Yes, he can still improve, no he's not at his peak right now, because he's been here exactly 4 months.
He should be treated like an 18-year-old kid, just coming over.
I really question whether you've watched the guy play consistently, because I couldn't disagree with you more on everything in this article. He's been here four months, and the improvement and adjustments he has made in that short time are simply amazing. He will be here a long time, I guarantee that.
from 4 months ago
Again, it's possible. We'll see in the coming months.
from 4 months ago
"He should be treated like an 18-year-old kid, just coming over."
Maybe mentally. Physically he has less time to adjust before his body becomes incapable of following through on his will.
Me thinks all you "scouting is GOD" types just have little understanding where these figures come from and how to apply them. People fear what they don't understand or are afraid they can't understand.
write a new comment