The 2007 season was a wild roller coaster ride for Tiger fans, and its lore will live on for years to come.
With that said, Les Miles isn’t buying into the “defending” part of his team’s title-defending champions.
Les has stated that this year’s team is starting with a clean slate. The record is back to 0-0. That’s a pretty good outlook for a team that will have a tough time trying to repeat its success from a season ago.
Most college football fans will mention that LSU’s quarterback situation will be the main reason it would be hard to repeat the win total from a year ago.
Most LSU fans will mention that the rest of the team is reloading and that all they need is a quarterback who can manage the offense efficiently and not make mistakes.
However, I think it’s much more difficult than that.
Here are six reasons LSU’s hopes for a two-peat might not come to fruition:
1) QB Experience
Nothing is a more glaring obstacle than two green QB’s competing for the starting role on a potent offense. Everything on offense flows through the quarterback.
With the offseason dismissal of Ryan Perrilloux, LSU is left without any notable experience in either Junior Andrew Hatch or Redshirt Freshman Jarrett Lee.
This is the one factor I just can’t get past right now. Either kid is more than welcome to prove me wrong and I’ll be happy to admit it when the time comes, but so much rides on a quarterback’s effectiveness.
Football in the SEC is brutal and I think it takes more than a good running game and offensive line to get the job done week in and week out. You have to be able to make the other team pay when they load the box if the offense wants to keep drives going.
That leads to…
2) Third downs
LSU has been remarkable on third downs since Les Miles has taken over. But having JaMarcus Russell and fifth year senior Matt Flynn taking snaps had much to do with that.
It didn’t hurt to have guys like Dwayne Bowe, Buster Davis, and Early Doucet catching the ball either.
With guys like Demetrius Byrd, Brandon Lafell, and Terrance Tolliver, the talent at WR doesn’t take much of a hit. Also, the Tigers have an effective pass catching tight end in Richard Dickson but refer back to No. 1. Someone still needs to get these guys the ball.
Being spectacular on third downs has led to great success but expect a bit of a drop off in ’08.
In ’07, LSU was 104 for 223 on third downs. That’s 47 percent, so the Tigers were close to converting half their third down attempts compared to 35 percent for their opponents.
You could also throw in LSU’s insane fourth down conversion percentage. The Tigers were 13/16 on fourth downs in ‘07. That’s 81 percent compared to opponents 6-21 or 29 percent.
This leads to a bit of a side note on people that call Les Miles a gambler on the field and that some even call careless. If you are converting fourth downs at an 81 percent clip, is it still a gamble?
I’ll take 81 percent odds into any casino thank you very much.
Maybe Miles knew when you have a smart quarterback like Flynn and a battering ram named Jacob Hester, it’s wasn’t much of a gamble.
Miles won’t have either in ’08 so expect the fourth down conversions to come back down to earth a bit.
One more thing about third downs, when you keep drives going, you increase your chances of red zone appearances and being able to turn those opportunities into points.
The Tigers had 75 opportunities to score in the red zone last year. They failed just five times. 49 of those 70 were touchdowns.
If the Tigers can’t find themselves in striking distance they’ll have trouble pulling off…
3) Late game heroics
It’s been an LSU specialty over the last few years. The Tigers dropped close ones to Kentuckyand Arkansas in six total overtimes and won in heart stopping fashion against Florida, Auburn, and Alabama.
LSU made many mistakes during the season and penalties were public enemy number one. LSU showed resolve by looking terrific in the second half in ’07.
LSU scored 291 second half points to opponents’ 119. That’s a pretty wide gap.
In fact, LSU outscored SEC opponents 162-88 in the second half.
Referring back to No. 1, if the Tigers have rely on late game heroics again, the quarterback is usually the guy leading the charge. That might not be a good thing this year.
4) Inexperience at CB and OLB
When Nick Saban was here he suffered through some bad play at corner before he finally got the type of guys he needed in this defense in order to blitz effectively. LSU has been pulling in quality cornerbacks ever since.
LSU is not low on talented corners this year, just experienced ones. LSU may not be able to leave these guys on their island as much as before. Having strong corner play really does affect what your entire defense can do.
The future looks bright at corner for the Tigers but ’08 will showcase two newbie starters.
Also with only one returning starter at LB in Darry Beckwith, LSU may lose a small step at backer.
A little known bright spot is LSU’s depth on the defensive line where even though there’s no more All World tackle Glenn Dorsey, the Bayou Bengals are still stocked with talent and won’t miss a beat in ’08.
But injuries were a factor last year especially on the defense, and refer back to No. 2 when you talk about the offense converting third downs to keep the defense off the field.
5) Even year schedule
It’s not a cop out to say LSU has a hard time in even years. Just look at the records.
In fact, let me show you.
Look at the bowls listed in the two columns below:
Column A Column B
Peach Sugar
Cotton BCS National Championship
Capital One Peach
Sugar BCS National Championship
While both columns aren’t bad, which bowls would you like your team to play in during a four year span?
Column A is LSU’s even year bowl results and Column B is the odd year’s bowls.
Road trips to Auburnand Florida along with Bama’s success in Tiger Stadium are three big reasons even years are rough.
In 2008, add a home date with Georgia and an away game with improving South Carolina and just about any of the above mentioned becomes a possible loss.
6) Night Games?
The other thing that I attribute as a factor that more level-headed Tiger fans dismiss is the lack of home night games this year.
Baton Rouge was electric against Virginia Tech, AU, and Florida last year. It’s widely considered a “myth” that LSU plays better at night but check this out:
LSU’s losses in ’07 were a 2:30 and 1:30 kickoff. In ’06, they dropped two 2:30 games.
LSU’s only regular season loss in ’05 was a night game on a Monday and it was the first game post Katrina.
LSU’s two losses in ’04 were 2:30 games, and the bowl game was a day game. The Tigers’ lone loss in ’03 was a 2:30 game.
In fact, you have to go back to 2002 to find LSU’s last night game loss when the country’s biggest natural disaster in history isn’t in play.
Still don’t believe me?
Go back to those two columns above with the bowl games. LSU lost the day bowls and won the night ones. The Peach in ’00 was late afternoon and a win. I guess I’ll concede that one.
You want to beat LSU? Pray for a daytime kickoff.
I see many more day games this year for LSU than last year. UGA and Alabama, the two biggest home games this year, will probably be CBS 2:30 kickoffs.
It’s just another cloud lining up to rain on the Tigers this year.
But let’s not count the Tigers out either. Legend says that it never rains in Tiger Stadium. LSU is extremely dangerous to anyone that takes them lightly. While cornerback and the outside linebackers are a little wet behind the ears, the Tiger defense will be extremely strong up the middle.
On the other side of the ball, the Tiger offensive line may quietly be one of the best in the conference, if not the country.
One thing’s for certain, Les Miles is fiery coach whose teams don’t quit in the face of adversity. LSU will attempt to be in the thick of things when the SEC West race winds down.
The hope for LSU fans would be that the experience the quarterback (whoever that may be) gains during the season will pay off by season’s end.
While the Tigers might not be playing in Miami at season’s end, LSU has a great chance for another special season.
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2 months ago
there is no way theyre going to be able to pull it off again in my mind. they will get close, and will most likely be in a bcs game, but i dont think they will get to the national championship again
from 2 months ago
thanks for the comment.
i'm with ya, alan.
some of the LSU faithful though don't agree.
but i've never been much of an optimist either.
2 months ago
Even year schedules are brutal for LSU. That 2004 schedule with 3 out of 4 on the road against UGA, Auburn, and Florida killed the Tigers. Lots of outsiders say Les Miles blew a national title with his most talented team in 2006. They often ignore the 2006 schedule of playing #3, #5, #5, and #8 on the road. Luckily, we don't have UGA in the road again in the same season we play UF and Auburn on the road, but it's still tough.
from 2 months ago
for everyone that knocks LSU for the '07 season with the catching of breaks, i refer them to the '06 season. that team was just as good if not better. had some bad breaks against AU and shot themselves in the foot against UF.
they didn't catch any breaks when finishing strong a la UGA in '07 but without all the bellyaching (sorry dawg fans.)
2 months ago
I cant wait until Oct. 25 when the Dawgs go to Baton Rouge. No matter what time the game starts that crowd is going to be electric.
Go Dawgs!!
from 2 months ago
agreed, now i feel bad about banging on the dawgs just now.
i retract the above comment.
thanks for the comment!
2 months ago
LSU FOOTBALL
A TRADITION . . . SINCE AUGUST 2003
2 months ago
Jimson, You're just jealous. LSU will enter the 2008 season with 693 victories, the 12th most in NCAA history, and the 4th most of any SEC team, behind only Alabama (787), Tennessee (771), and Georgia (714). LSU will also enter the 2008 season with a 0.640 all-time winning percentage, the 14th best in the NCAA, and the 4th best in the SEC, behind only Alabama (0.706), Tennessee (0.697), and Georgia (0.644). 14th BEST in 111 years of collegiate football. I'll take that tradition over your Kansas Fakehawks any day. I'll give your boys props for turning out guys like Sayers and Riggins, two of the best ever, but that's where it ends.
And what's up with your claim in a previous post that y'all won a Football MNC. Never happened, dude. Put the glue down. It's killing the few remaining brain cells you have left. lol
2 months ago
BTW, Nice read, Justin. Detailed, informative and interesting. No one here can question your LSU fanhood. Geaux Tigers!
2 months ago
ha no problem man (justin) its going to be an awesome matchup. Yall have one of the loudest crowds in one of the best stadiums in college football. I can see why yall would want more night games.. just like we(UGA) do. It gives our fans and students a little more time to get "juiced" up for the game lol i wish cbs would push there 3:30 games(eastern time zone) back to 5:30 or 6. that would be primetime for Sec fans. Night games offer a better atomosphere in my opinion.
2 months ago
Some good stuff Justin. I agree that LSU has a tough road to climb. Impossible? No. Probable? Unfortunately for LSU fans that's a no as well.
I do think LSU will be pretty good this year, not great, but pretty good. Good enough to finish in 2nd in the West at worst. If they finish third in the West I'll be totally shocked!
2 months ago
LSU was extremely fortunate last year. those exciting wins over bama, auburn & florida could have all been losses. if any ONE of them had been, the tigers would not be day dreaming about back-to-back national titles.
justin, you mention jacob hester in passing, but without him that 4th down conversion stat wouldn't be nearly as glamourous. they are going to miss him in short yardage situations.
LSU should have a good team, but still with 3 or 4 or 5 losses.
2 months ago
Im not jealous of LSU. I liked this article, really. I have nothing bad to say about it. SEC is tough enough as it is, and with unexperienced quarterback play, it gets even worse. They have depth at alot of positions, it is not like Hatch/Lee won't have anyone to throw to, I just think LSU will not repeat. They already have a 5 start QB waiting in the wing for next year, so it is not like there going to totally blow. Oh and Highsmith should have stayed another year...thats just my opinion
from 2 months ago
thanks for the comment reggie.
this will be a rough year but miles is burning up the recruiting trail picking up another 5 star DT this week. hopefully more to come.
2 months ago
I couldnt agreree with you more Justin. Great article
from 2 months ago
thanks thomas.
although i think your profile pic needs a bit of work, lol.
2 months ago
oct 25 will be a sad day for the dawg nation for lsu will cometh and kicketh thy butts ! ! ! ! ! !
2 months ago
Awesome informative article. Good stuff. I have to agree I think the team will drop down a bit.
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