The Rule of 59  

Evaluating quarterbacks in the NFL is anything but a complete science. Decisions like Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch over Donovan McNabb have changed franchises' fortunes and proved that GMs could still learn a thing or two about evaluating the most important position on the field, without even mentioning a skinny kid from Michigan who proved 31 teams wrong.

After extensive research, I am not claiming to be able to find guys like Tom Brady and Tony Romo in the later rounds, but I do have a simple rule that seems extremely obvious, yet very effective.

NEVER, EVER draft a quarterback to be your future starter if he does not complete at least 59 percent of his passes in college. I know, I know; this does not seem like a difficult rule to follow since 59 percent is such a low number.

However, this has not stopped GMs from selecting inaccurate college quarterbacks year in and year out, with the expectation of “coaching them up” to turn them into productive passers.  

For years, general managers in the NFL have looked at hundreds of factors when grading out quarterbacks, but through my research and knowledge, one quality seems to stand out as overrated, and another as underrated.

Is there a more overrated quality in a quarterback than their throwing power/velocity? It seems as though every year, some college quarterback moves up draft boards after wowing scouts by throwing a football from his knees.

If anyone can explain to me how this is applicable in an NFL game, I would be more than willing to listen. This scenario has played out for years with similar results. From Jeff George to Todd Marinovich to Akili Smith and Kyle Boller, big arms do not necessarily translate to NFL success.

The reasons for this are complicated and diverse, but as these players move from college to the pro ranks, the margin allowed for error shrinks dramatically. Their rocket arms no longer can save them from bad reads and other risky throws. As every NFL expert has said, the speed of the game and the defenders changes dramatically.

This is not to say that arm strength is unimportant, but most people would have a more difficult time finding busts that have failed because of insufficient arm strength. In reality, you could make a very strong argument that throwing accuracy is the best indicator of NFL success, and I plan to prove that theory.

In the past nine Super Bowls, the average completion percentage of the two competing teams has been 62.18, while the league average has been 59.36 during that same span. It may seem obvious that Super Bowl teams will have good quarterbacks, but that is a huge statistical gap over a large sample of years. 

In fact, the only team to win a Super Bowl in my sample with a quarterback whose completion percentage is below the league average is our most recent champions, the New York Giants. So, simply by using completion percentage and omitting defensive, rushing, and other important stats, we can be fairly certain that in the modern NFL scene, an extremely accurate quarterback is a must for Super Bowl contenders.

The Ravens seem like a perfect devil’s advocate to this theory, since they started a quarterback that many consider to be the worst Super Bowl winner of all time. But after breaking them down, that argument is not very telling.

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