The Rule of 59
Evaluating quarterbacks in the NFL is anything but a complete science. Decisions like Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch over Donovan McNabb have changed franchises' fortunes and proved that GMs could still learn a thing or two about evaluating the most important position on the field, without even mentioning a skinny kid from Michigan who proved 31 teams wrong.
After extensive research, I am not claiming to be able to find guys like Tom Brady and Tony Romo in the later rounds, but I do have a simple rule that seems extremely obvious, yet very effective.
NEVER, EVER draft a quarterback to be your future starter if he does not complete at least 59 percent of his passes in college. I know, I know; this does not seem like a difficult rule to follow since 59 percent is such a low number.
However, this has not stopped GMs from selecting inaccurate college quarterbacks year in and year out, with the expectation of “coaching them up” to turn them into productive passers.
For years, general managers in the NFL have looked at hundreds of factors when grading out quarterbacks, but through my research and knowledge, one quality seems to stand out as overrated, and another as underrated.
Is there a more overrated quality in a quarterback than their throwing power/velocity? It seems as though every year, some college quarterback moves up draft boards after wowing scouts by throwing a football from his knees.
If anyone can explain to me how this is applicable in an NFL game, I would be more than willing to listen. This scenario has played out for years with similar results. From Jeff George to Todd Marinovich to Akili Smith and Kyle Boller, big arms do not necessarily translate to NFL success.
The reasons for this are complicated and diverse, but as these players move from college to the pro ranks, the margin allowed for error shrinks dramatically. Their rocket arms no longer can save them from bad reads and other risky throws. As every NFL expert has said, the speed of the game and the defenders changes dramatically.
This is not to say that arm strength is unimportant, but most people would have a more difficult time finding busts that have failed because of insufficient arm strength. In reality, you could make a very strong argument that throwing accuracy is the best indicator of NFL success, and I plan to prove that theory.
In the past nine Super Bowls, the average completion percentage of the two competing teams has been 62.18, while the league average has been 59.36 during that same span. It may seem obvious that Super Bowl teams will have good quarterbacks, but that is a huge statistical gap over a large sample of years.
In fact, the only team to win a Super Bowl in my sample with a quarterback whose completion percentage is below the league average is our most recent champions, the New York Giants. So, simply by using completion percentage and omitting defensive, rushing, and other important stats, we can be fairly certain that in the modern NFL scene, an extremely accurate quarterback is a must for Super Bowl contenders.
The Ravens seem like a perfect devil’s advocate to this theory, since they started a quarterback that many consider to be the worst Super Bowl winner of all time. But after breaking them down, that argument is not very telling.
15 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Jerry Desaulniers 11 months ago
Very interesting data! Good article! But every rule has an exception, or even a late bloomer!
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Buckeyes Fan in Happy Valley 11 months ago
As a Browns fan, I'm hoping Brady Quinn bucks this trend since he recorded a 58%
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Brett Lissenden 11 months ago
great article -- good research and it will be interesting to see if this rule continues to hold.
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Cardinal Contributor 11 months ago
Interesting piece! I am curious to see how Quinn projects. Do you believe that playing for four years and experiencing "freshman woes" might have skewed his numbers? Does playing with mediocre talent have an effect? Awesome, awesome article though.
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Gil Becerra 11 months ago
Good article! JaMarcus Russell isnt in that group! 2005 as a Sophmore 60.5 Completion% and in his final college year in 2006 he threw for 67.8 Completion%... In the SEC of all conference!! Go Raiders!!!
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Buckeyes Fan in Happy Valley 11 months ago
I was a little surprised because he was one of the first people I looked at but Russell finished far ahead of the 59 mark, I don't have the numbers with me but I think he had a 62.5
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William Berry 11 months ago
If I had not already used my pick of the day you'd get it.
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Buckeyes Fan in Happy Valley 11 months ago
Thanks William, I appreciate that
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Bruce Dickenson 11 months ago
Nice article. I like using statistics to back up theories.
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Kelly Bundle 11 months ago
Hey Buckeyes fan. Im a Browns fan as well. As a Browns fan you should be hoping Anderson overshadows Quinn so much that you never have to find out.
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Buckeyes Fan in Happy Valley 11 months ago
As a Browns supporter, I do love Anderson and although he was a hero last year, my opinion is that the franchise's future probably goes hand-in-hand with Quinn's
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William Blake 11 months ago
Yeah, I agree with William. If I hadn't already used my pick of the day this may have gotten it. Greats stats.
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Raider Card Addict 11 months ago
Interesting Article, two items to point out though.
First of all, you listed Carson Palmer twice, as QBs who had over the 59 percent mark. Is this simply a personal favorite, or you got excited over his stats?
Secondly, and this is what breaks down statistics. A QB can be good in the college rank, but if he doesn't have a decent line in the pros, aka Andrew Walter, he's in trouble. Completions are good, but only if you have time to lock into your target, make a good throw, and then have recievers willing to catch the ball.
Walter's season of derailment had him relying in the Art Shell method of disaster, no one wanted to be QB....to Walter's credit, he was the QB when the Raiders won twice....but both times, the defense did more than the offense.
And Tui....well, he never really got the chance to make a name for himself, before being thrown to the lions, literally.
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Brett Lissenden 11 months ago
I'm not sure what you're second point is getting at. I don't think the article suggests a good completion percentage in college indicates success in the NFL, it merely states that if you have a poor completion percentage in college then you have no shot in the NFL. There are certainly other things that come into play.
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Buckeyes Fan in Happy Valley 11 months ago
Raider Card seems to have it all figured out..its nice to see some football fans still throw stats out the window and bash this kind of research as opposed to using it as a secondary resource...
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