Avoid Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall This Season???

Avoid Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall this season????

The Jets D is going to be solid. They already had Darelle Revis and
they’ve recently added Antonio Cromartie, Jason Taylor and Kyle Wilson (1st round pick). Their defense will be formidable to say the least.
The value of WR’s in the AFC East has to be lowered a notch (or two).
The Jets play the Dolphins and Patriots twice before the fantasy
playoffs. Both Brandon Marshall and Randy Moss will likely be 2nd to
3rd round picks in most fantasy drafts (especially PPR leagues). You
could realistically take them both, in the first few rounds of your
draft. If you do pick them both, you’d probably think you can coast
into the fantasy playoffs. I’m here to tell you, that may not be the
case.

Both Moss & Marshall face the Jets D and “Revis Island” twice before
week 14. In 2 games versus the Jets last year Moss went a combined
9-58-1 TD. The first meeting Moss went 4-24, the second was 5-34-1.
The TD catch was a quick hitter right at the goal line. Before that
TD catch, Moss was hovering right at 4-30. Moss’s combined 2 game
numbers last season are similar to what he normally puts up in one
game. Marshall didn’t visit “Revis Island” in 2009, but he did in
2008. In 2008 he had 5-55 against the Jets. If you combine the last
3 games where Moss and Marshall played the Jets, that’s a total of
14-113-1. This is from 2 of the league’s best WR’s (and keep in mind
the Jets D has gotten better since last season – SCARY). That’s an
average of 4.6 catches, 37.6 yards with 1 TD every 3 games. That’s
not exactly what you would expect from your top WR’s, regardless of
who they are playing.

Let’s say that you did take both Moss and Marshall in the first couple
rounds. You’d have 2 stud WR’s, but you’d also have a combined 4
games against the Jets. That’s 31% of your fantasy season. That’s a
lot of games where your top WR might not produce like one. You’ll
also need to factor in the schedule of Moss and Marshall against the
Jets. Moss plays the Jets in week 13. Week 13 is a crucial point in
the fantasy season. It’s most likely the last week before your
playoffs start. It could be a win or not make the playoffs situation.
If I’m in that position, I’m not sure I feel comfortable with Moss
against the Jets. That’s also a game late in the year, in Foxboro.
What are the chances the weather won’t be terrible? OK, you escaped
with a win in week 13. Next up you have Marshall facing the Jets in
Week 14. That’s normally the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Now
the stakes ARE win or go home. That game is in New York. So, it’s a
home game for the Jets, late in the season. Extremely tough matchup
to start, then factor in the Dolphins are a warm weather team. Again,
the weather could be terrible in this game. This is as tough as it
gets over a 2 week stretch, in a situation where matchups really
matter a lot.

I’m not saying don’t draft these guys, both are obviously #1 WR’s.
I’m saying if you target them both, you should know the situation &
schedule. When your top 2 WR’s visit “Revis Island” 4 times over a 13
game fantasy regular season, you could be setting yourself up for
disappointment. Or you could always draft them both and cross your
fingers that the Jets D implodes (or that Rex Ryan gets hungry and
eats the entire secondary during a practice). I think it’s far more
likely that you can expect 4.6 catches and 37.6 yards per game from
Moss and Marshall against the Jets in 2010.

Article written by: Rick Coeburn
For questions or comments, e-mail Rick at – [e-mail]
Follow his blog at http://fantasystew.wordpress.com/

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