Justin Smoak vs. Ike Davis: Fantasy Baseball Smackdown

Two of the best first base prospects in baseball, Justin Smoak and Ike Davis, have already gotten the call and are seeing everyday Major League at-bats.  Which is the better option for 2010?  How about beyond?  Let’s take a look:

Justin Smoak - Texas Rangers
The 2008 first round draft pick has proven that he can hit, though his minor league success has been mixed, at best.  Just look at his splits from 2009:

• Double-A: .328, 6 HR, 29 RBI in 183 AB
• Triple-A: .244, 4 HR, 23 RBI in 197 AB

The BABIP tells a big story, with respective marks of .380 and .297.  The likelihood is that he’s somewhere in the middle, like he showed at Triple-A prior to his recall (.300 in 50 AB).  What helps is his incredible plate discipline.

Over his minor league career (492 AB), he struck out 99 times while walking 96.  Granted, the strikeout rate isn’t overly impressive (20.1%), but the walk rate certainly is (16.3%).  That type of eye should certainly help lead to solid averages in the major leagues.

Thus far he hasn’t shown the propensity to put the ball in the air enough to consider him a big-time home run threat.  Prior to this season, his career FB percent was just 31.7.  At Triple-A last season he was at 26.6 percent.

He’s still young and developing (23-years-old), but his general lack of extra base hits is a bit concerning.  If he were hitting a significant number of doubles, I’d be a bit more optimistic, but he had just 21 last season. 

Of course, with eight extra base hits in his first 50 AB this season, he has brought a bit of ease to those concerns, but they are very much for real.

He will call a great hitter’s ballpark home and be thrust into a very talented lineup.  That certainly gives him a step up, but the Rangers could easily opt to turn back to Chris Davis at some point if Smoak falls into a slump. 

Ike Davis - New York Mets
Selected seven picks after Smoak, Davis’ story is very similar, though some of his peripherals are a bit more appealing.

Including his brief Triple-A stint in 2010, Davis has a flyball rate of 40.1 percent.  Last season he had 31 doubles and 54 total extra base hits.  That certainly gives hope that the power will continue to develop.  Could he be your prototypical 30+ home run first baseman?  Maybe, maybe not, but he certainly could be an extra base machine.

CitiField certainly is going to have an influence on his power potential.  Did you see the 450-foot blast he hit earlier this week?  When you hit them like that, it doesn’t matter what ballpark you play in.

He doesn’t have the same type of eye as Smoak (23.6% strikeout rate vs. 11.6% walk rate), so the average may be a slight step behind him, especially when you factor in his career BABIP of .349.  He easily could struggle in the average department.

Where he benefits, however, is less competition for playing time.  Daniel Murphy, expected to be the Mets first baseman heading into the season, is not a natural first baseman.  With Davis proving he can handle Major League pitching, he should receive some latitude even if he falls into a slump.  The glove is the difference, which should keep him in the lineup.

Conclusion
The two are extremely close, with Davis currently having an advantage in the power department but Smoak being the more disciplined hitter.  The one thing that skews it, at least for 2010, is the playing time.  Davis is safer in his position at this point, meaning if you are looking for immediate value, he’s the safer option.

Long-term, however, you have to like Smoak’s approach at the plate.  In that ballpark, it is likely that he develops sufficient power, meaning you could be looking at a .300, 25+ HR hitter.  Considering it could develop as soon as 2011 (and maybe even in 2010), he’s likely the better true prospect. 

It’s a risk/reward type of equation, though both should prove usable if you are in a league that requires a corner infielder.  Personally, I’d take the risk on Smoak’s upside long-term.  It all depends on exactly what you are looking for, however.

What are your thoughts?  Which player would you rather have?  Why or why not?

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