Strikeforce Nashville Preview: Game-Plan Analysis and Outcome Predictions

Strikeforce's Nashville card is a card that's all about stylistic matchups and gameplans—not only for the fighters, but for the promoters.

Each fighter has some very direct ways he can win or lose, and the same is true for the Strikeforce organization, as some outcomes are far more marketable than others.

For this card we look at the three main fights, how each fighter can win, and what it all means for Strikeforce.

Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields

Henderson wants to keep this fight on the feet and look for the knockout. He'll look to use his wrestling defensively in order to stay out of submission trouble.

If Henderson winds up in top position on the ground against Shields, he's not in a terrible spot, but he'll still need to avoid scrambles and Shields' killer guillotine.

Most importantly, Henderson needs to avoid winding up on his back against Shields, where a submission is most likely to happen.

Shields will of course be looking to get on top of Henderson and work for a submission.

If Shields can't get a takedown directly, he can try to pull guard and work for a sweep or submission, but this is a less desirable situation.

If Shields can't take the fight to the ground, the fight is going to get ugly for him in a hurry. He'll want to avoid Henderson's right hand at all cost.

Strikeforce desperately wants Henderson to win—and in impressive fashion—though it would be nice if Shields shows a few flashes of brilliance before losing.

Henderson is the far more marketable option both because of name recognition and because his fighting style is more exciting.

Equally as important is the fact that Strikeforce has a lot of money invested in Henderson, while Shields' contract is due to expire after this fight.

If Shields wins impressively, Strikeforce does have an clause in the contract that gives them an option on an additional fight.

Even if Shields wins, he's still not a guy they can really market, but they'd be in a position where they're forced to re-sign him because it will be bad if their champion gets signed by the UFC.

The worst-case scenario for Strikeforce is if Shields wins in unimpressive fashion, hurting ratings, Shields' reputation, and Henderson's reputation all in one fell submission.

Predictions

The most likely outcome is that Henderson knocks out Shields, or otherwise batters him fairly badly, and goes on to fight bigger fights while Shields looks to the welterweight division for future matchups.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Muhammed Lawal

Mousasi will look to keep this fight on the feet and use his perceived striking advantage, especially when it comes to kicks.

If things wind up on the ground, he can work submissions, sweeps, or try to get back to his feet.

Unless he gets a sweep or knockdown he's unlikely to get on top of Lawal due to Lawal's gigantic wrestling advantage.

Lawal wants to use his wrestling to take this fight to the ground, where he can control the pace of the fight and do some serious damage.

He'll probably want to avoid long striking exchanges, but it's possible that he could still land a big shot while feigning a takedown like Brock Lesnar did against Heath Herring and Frank Mir did against Cheick Kongo.

He needs to avoid frequent striking exchanges and Mousasi's submission attempts if he's going to be successful.

Strikeforce probably just wants this fight to be competitive and exciting. If the ratings plummet it'll be bad, and a one-sided fight would be bad because Strikeforce needs to market both of these guys with the dearth of talent in their 205-pound pool.

If the fight is one-sided, it's a potential star-making performance for either guy, so that's not a terrible scenario. If they can choose a winner in such a case, they'd probably choose Lawal, because flamboyant personality and English-speaking skill will help him sell better than the possible angles they can use with Mousasi.

The worst-case scenario would be a boring fight where nobody really wins or looks like they could fare well against the 205'ers of the UFC.

Predictions

The fight will probably end up being an exciting one that has good moments for both fighters, and although I expect Mousasi's lack of wrestling to be exposed again, that won't matter if he gets a stoppage victory. The betting line favors Mousasi, but I like Lawal to win with an impressive stoppage on the ground.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki

This fight is almost a stylistic clone of the Henderson vs. Shields fight.

Melendez will want to keep this fight standing and avoid the ground altogether.

Melendez should have a big advantage in striking, and he'll look to use it.

Unlike Shields, Aoki can thrive off his back, so although being on his back with Aoki on top is far worse, Melendez will probably want to avoid the ground even if he's on top.

Aoki's game plan will be nearly identical to Shields' except he's not in as dire straits if he can't take Melendez down, because he can still pull guard.

He can win by submission, or by decision if he's able to score rounds with grappling points.

Strikeforce wants Melendez to win because Aoki is still signed with Dream, and so his future in Strikeforce is uncertain.

A star-making performance by Melendez would be fine, but as long as the fight is exciting, a close match is OK because Strikeforce doesn't have a lot of contenders waiting in the wings, and so a situation where they can book a rematch down the line would be nice.

The worst-case scenario would be if Aoki beats Melendez easily and then refuses to fight for Strikeforce again.

There's also the real possibility that the pace of the fight slows and ratings drop.

Predictions

It should be a fairly exciting and competitive fight, and I think that, at the very worst, Strikeforce will be in a position where they can market a rematch if Melendez doesn't just knock Aoki out. I slightly favor Melendez by TKO.

Overall

If Aoki and Shields win in decisive fashion it'll be bad for Strikeforce, but I think Strikeforce gets the desired outcomes and builds toward bigger fights. Still, there's a big chance that one of Mousasi or Lawal winds up getting sacrificed unnecessarily in the star-making performance of the other.