How Would a 16-Team Big Ten Conference Effect College Football?

A recent article discussed the idea that the Big Ten is strongly looking at possible expansion scenarios, which I will call "Do Nothing," "Add One," or "Go Big" for the purpose of this article.  The Big Ten has long held on to the "Do Nothing" option, but it looks like the conference is finally moving towards expansion.

There's speculation about expanding to 14 teams rather than the 12-team standard that's prevalent today.  However, it appears that "Go Big" means going very big as the Big Ten is seriously considering expanding to 16.

A 16-team Big Ten would need five more teams, taking away from the Big East and Big 12. Notre Dame may or may not be apart of it. 

If the Big Ten takes three or four Big East teams (Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, and maybe one other), then Big East football will become a thing of the past . 

We can rest assure that the Big Ten will not make the same mistakes that the WAC made in the 1990s. The poorly managed quadrant alignment and separation of long-term rivals led to the conference's break-up and the creation of the Mountain West Conference.

But How Will This Impact Other Conferences?

As already noted, Big Ten expansion will impact all of college football by reshaping the landscape and creating an entirely new college football world.  Just as the creation of the Bowl Coalition and SEC expansion to 12 teams reshaped college football in the 1990s, so to will 16-team conferences.

The Big East really can't survive if it loses four teams.  Sure, Big East supporters can pretend that they could just reload again with Conference USA teams, but it is more likely that the Big East will give up on the football experiment and the ACC will grab a few of the schools so that it can expand to 14 or 16.

The Pac-10 had already been looking at expansion since it hired Larry Scott and decided to go for the money.  While it will stop at 12, it could go bigger if it can get Texas to join.  A Pac-14 or Pac-16 would do really well getting increased TV revenue.

The Big 12 is in danger if all the major conferences expand.  It has many attractive targets such as Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas. The conference's vulnerability has increased due to it's inability to gain TV deals similar to the Big Ten or SEC. 

If the Big 12 loses three or more major schools, it may not be able to survive.

The Big 12 can attempt to resist the changes by expanding to 14 or even 16 teams.  It  can target schools from C-USA and the Mountain West.  Given that the Big 12 has an unbalanced revenue distribution deal in-place, adding teams to the Big 12 is easier than the Pac-10 or Big Ten. This is because the pie does not necessarily have to grow in order to create a revenue share for new teams.

The SEC has no immediate need to expand beyond its current 12 member conference.  However, given the proper circumstances (discussed below), the SEC may decide to join the expansion wave.  The SEC could practically pick and choose which teams it wanted  with very few limitations.

The non-automatic qualifying conferences will face a tough environment as they lose ome or most of their teams. Although with the Big East and maybe the Big 12 providing teams, not as many non-automatic qualifying schools win benefit as it appears at first glance.

The MWC will survive and maintain it's status as the quasi seventh BCS conference if it expands now rather than wait to see what happens. The MAC should not have too much trouble because few of it's teams are appealing targets for major conference expansion.  The WAC and CUSA will survive in some form, but the Sun Belt will face difficulties as some of its teams migrate to the CUSA.

We could ultimately have five 16-team conferences dominating college football with no space for outsiders.

How Will This Change the BCS?

With the advent of the 16-team conference, we can anticipate changes to the BCS system.  Instead of having only one guaranteed BCS berth, it is likely that the super conferences will want two automatic berths, as well as the possibility of three teams. 

The guarantee of two teams will lead to the wide-scale adoption of the sixteen-team model.  It will also lead to another expansion of the BCS to accommodate the additional teams.

If five or six super-conferences emerge, we might be closer to a playoff.  The main problems BCS folks have about a playoff are money and control. 

With 16-team conferences, the BCS could monopolize berths into the playoffs and bring in current outsiders such as North Texas, New Mexico State, Eastern Michigan and Florida International who are normally left out.

The true problem is formulating this in some rational model. 

Can the Big East actually accept the demise of its football conference?  Will the Pac-10 (which is currently trying to get a conference championship game without expansion) finally realize that they are not in the 1960s and expand?  Will the Big 12 survive, or will the Mountain West Conference secure a spot in the super-conference world?

By the time the BCS TV contract is up for bid again, the college football world will look entirely different.  And if we get a playoff system out of these changes, then I am all for it, especially if schools such as Boise State, BYU, East Carolina, Houston, TCU, and Utah are part of college football's new order.