Mountain West Conference: Time for Expansion

The powers in the Mountain West Conference (MWC) have a very reasonable fear about conference expansion. 

After all, most of them are former members of the WAC and participated in the craziest expansions of all times, the 16-team WAC experiment of the mid-1990s.

Even so, the time has come for the MWC to step up and expand the conference.  But this will only happen if the leadership of the MWC can overcome their own history.

A Justified Fear of Expansion?

The mishandling of the ill-conceived WAC expansion led directly to the the birth of the MWC, as the leadership of the so-called Gang of Five (Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Utah, and Wyoming) secretly met in 1998 to create the new MWC. 

They extended invitations to longtime partner New Mexico (a founding member of the WAC along with four of the five members of the Gang of Five), San Diego State (who joined the WAC almost two decades earlier), and UNLV (a relative newcomer to the WAC, but with a very high basketball profile) to form a new eight team league.

While the MWC basically took their ball and ran with it, leaving the WAC as a shell of its former self, the MWC had only moderate success with only eight teams.  Eight- team leagues cause serious disruptions to scheduling.

More importantly, eight-team leagues contribute to a perception that a conference lacks depth.  It is much easier for a conference to hide the weak teams at the bottom in a large conference.

Moreover, for a non-automatic qualifying (non-AQ) conference such as the MWC, the teams must schedule much tougher out-of-conference schedules (such as road games versus Big Six conference foes) than the teams of the major conferences, thereby having fewer teams with good records.

As such, BYU started the 2001 season winning its first 12 games, yet was informed before its final regular season game, that it was eliminated from consideration for a BCS game.  This highlighted a national perception that the MWC was just another also-ran conference.

In its first five years, only one time did the MWC have a team finish in the final AP Top 20.

The MWC Expands to Nine

The MWC finally decided to expand in 2004 and invited TCU (who had just won the CUSA championship) to join.  With the Big East taking the other top teams from CUSA, TCU jumped at a chance to join the best non-AQ conference.

Added together with Utah's breakthrough undefeated season and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, the MWC looked to be on the way up.

Since TCU joined the MWC, the MWC champion has finished no lower than No. 16 in the final AP poll. 

The so-called Big Three of the MWC, BYU, TCU, and Utah, have dominated the conference over the last two years and have all finished in the final AP Top 25.

The MWC has become the de facto seventh AQ conference.

It appears only a matter of time before the MWC receives its official BCS invitation. There was serious discussion this last season on whether TCU might have deserved Texas's berth in the BCS title game. 

ESPN College GameDay made two appearances at MWC schools last season.

TCU's success of the last few years has finally started making some fundamental changes in the MWC's biggest media market, Dallas-Fort Worth, as the Frogs have finally broken through the Big 12's stranglehold on the market.

So, Why Expand Now?

First, the MWC is too small.  Of the 11 conferences of the Football Bowl Subdivision of Division I, only three have fewer than 10 members. 

Of the six AQ conferences, three already have 12 members and two, the Big Ten and the Pac-10, are openly discussing the possibility of expansion to 12 members.

The Big East, the least respected AQ conference, is under significant pressure to expand, though it might be losing a team to the Big Ten.

As is, the MWC only has two teams in major media markets, TCU and San Diego State, and the Aztecs currently have basically no local support.

The MWC needs to gain access to new media markets in order to increase it television footprint.

The MWC also needs more teams that are national draws and that will bring it more national recognition, even if those teams are not in major media markets.

Second, there is no guarantee that the MWC will gain the BCS AQ status even given its recent success.

The teams of the MWC have a history of being left behind.  When they were in the WAC, the WAC was left out of the Bowl Coalition even though the WAC was the only CFA conference excluded.

When the BCS was formed, the 16-team WAC was left on the outside.

While the BCS official provides for having between five and seven AQ conferences, it remains an open question as to whether the MWC will be graced with this status.

Under the three tests set forth by the BCS for getting AQ status, the MWC passes the first two without any issue, but is having a problem regarding the lower teams on the conference not pulling up their own weight. 

Strengthening the conference at the top and the middle reduces the problem with the conference bottom.

More than likely, the BCS will merely keep the prospect open, while creating new obstacles for the MWC.  The BCS will keep saying how the MWC just missed this time, but might make it next time.

As such, the MWC must expand to ensure that its champion will not be left out of the BCS. 

Under the current structure, a MWC champion with one-loss would likely qualify for a BCS game, but would run the risk of being left behind an undefeated team from the WAC or CUSA.

By bringing in the right teams, the MWC would basically guarantee themselves a BCS berth every year.

Finally, the risk of teams being poached by the Pac-10 or Big 12 is real.  If the Big Ten takes Missouri, then the Big 12 will most likely take BYU or TCU to fill the space. 

If the Pac-10 expands, it will most likely target Colorado and Utah.  As such, the Big 12 will also most likely turn to BYU or TCU in the case.

Proactively Expanding the MWC Would Serve Three Distinct, But Real Purposes 

First, it strengthens the conference, helping to make the case for AQ stronger, as well as improving its market value. 

Second, it would help prevent defections.  BYU, TCU or Utah will more likely stay in the MWC if there was a very good chance at AQ status and improved revenue without moving conferences.

Finally, it would help in case of a poaching.  Bringing in teams such as Boise State, Fresno State, and Houston would help stop the blow from losing Utah or TCU.

But How Many Teams?

Most talk of a MWC expansion has centered on adding Boise State to make a 10 team conference. 

Boise State would bring the conference another strong team, one with a national reputation.   However, Boise State has a very small TV market and would bring little in the way of additional television revenue.

The MWC leadership seems to think that expanding to 10 teams means going to a nine-game conference schedule. 

Only one conference currently plays a nine game conference schedule, the Pac-10, and the coaches in the conference all want to stop playing a nine game conference schedule.

A nine-game conference schedule causes an unbalanced schedule.  It guarantees an extra five in-conference losses. 

It also eliminates an out-of-conference game, thereby eliminating an opportunity to improve schedules with an easy OOC win. 

In short, going to a nine-game conference schedule would be a disaster.  Expanding to 10 teams, but keeping a eight-game conference schedule (sort of like the Big Ten) would be a better solution.  It increases the chances of having two highly ranked teams.

Now, moving to 12 might be the best solution.  Besides allowing for a conference championship game and an eight-game conference schedule, expansion would allow the MWC to expand its marketing footprint.

Adding Houston would add another top 10 market.  Moreover, Houston has been relatively successful in recent years and has demonstrated an stronger commitment to college athletics.  It is a very important recruiting market.

So, adding Boise State and Houston would only add to the prestige and status of the MWC. Boise State has a national reputation, while only having a small market.  Houston likewise has decent national name, but has a huge potential market.

A Closer Look at Other Expansions

When expanding, conferences need to be very careful about the teams they add.

Looking at past expansions, the appears that the SEC did the best job of all.  The SEC brought in Arkansas and South Carolina. 

While both programs have had moderate success, neither has ever won the SEC championship and South Carolina has never even won its division.

The SEC expansion also expanded the conference territory, while attacking nearby conferences. 

Stealing Arkansas from the SWC was one of the major causes for the end of the SWC. 

While South Carolina was independent at the time it joined the SEC, it allowed the SEC expand geographically into ACC territory.

The SEC secured Atlanta as the site of its championship game, which has been a huge success and a large part of the SEC's current domination of college football.

All in all, the SEC expansion was the most success in recent memory.

The ACC expansion, on the other hand, has largely been a failure. 

The ACC was already a good conference, but felt threatened by the success of the SEC.  It attempted to duplicate the SEC, but failed in all aspects.

The ACC brought in Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech, all top programs.  Boston College does not fit into the conference geographically.

These teams have largely dominated the conference since joining, especially Boston College and Virginia Tech.  Miami appears to be heading back up to the top as well.

Moreover, since expansion, none of the previous teams of the ACC has finished in the top 10.

The ACC has gained a reputation of being either too competitive or too average.

Furthermore, the ACC championship has largely been a failure.

Big 12 creation, while not official an expansion, is short of a mixed bag. 

The Big Eight Conference had long been dominated by Nebraska and Oklahoma, but Colorado and Kansas State had become major national players by the time the Big 12 was formed.

At the same time, Texas A&M was the only new team that was even decent at the time of the merger.  Since, the Big 12 North has largely gone down hill while the Big 12 South has been dominating. 

Some teams of the Big 12 North have developed a strong resentment of the domination of the Big 12 by teams from the South. 

Teams from the Big 12 South have won 10 of the 14 Big 12 title games.

The Big 12 moved its headquarters to  Dallas-Forth Worth.

Only one team finished last season with less than four losses.

The Big 12 title game, which has been all over the region, looks like it might have a permanent home at Cowboys Stadium, a few miles from the Big 12 headquarters.

And now, rumors are flying that teams such as Missouri and Colorado might be leaving the conference for greener pastures.

The Big 12's market share depends upon its control of major TV markets such as Denver, St. Louis, Houston, and Dallas-Fort Worth. 

If Colorado and Missouri leave, then Denver and St. Louis are lost.  With the rise of TCU and possibly Houston, two more major markets under threat as well.

So, while the Big 12 has provided a great platform for teams such as Oklahoma and Texas to make the BCS title game (all the while playing relatively soft schedules), the conference is facing serious issues.

So, What About the Twelfth Team for the MWC?

The final team for a MWC-12 is a very important piece of the puzzle.

First, the team needs to be above average, but not too great. The top of the conference, with Boise State, BYU, Utah, and TCU will already as good as any in the country.

Second, the team needs to have a decent sized market.

Third, the team should have at least a bit of a reputation.

Let's look the candidates.

Fresno State may be the best overall candidate.  Fresno has a national reputation and history.  The Central Valley has a relatively big market.  The Bulldogs have a history of good attendance.  And having another team in California would benefit the conference.

Hawaii would be a nice candidate if it wasn't too far away.  It just adds too much expense to be worthwhile.

Nevada could be a reasonable candidate.  However, it is in a small market and lacks great local support.

SMU could be a reasonable candidate.  The Mustangs were a very popular team before the NCAA imposed the so-called "death penalty" and seem to be improving under head coach June Jones.  But this would represent a second team in the same market, rather than expanding the conference footprint.

Tulsa would not be too bad, except it is a small school and the third school in a small state.

UTEP could be acceptable.  The Miners were long term partners with most of the MWC members.  UTEP dominates the El Paso market and has good local support.  But El Paso is a long way from anything in Texas and really does nothing to benefit the conference.

So, ultimately, Fresno State is the only real viable candidate.

Division Alignments

One of the real problems of the 16-team WAC was its structure, which split up long-term partners.  So, any new MWC with divisional alignment needs to keep the so-called Gang of Five core together. 

Any divisional alignment without keeping the Gang of Five together is doomed to failure.

So, Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Utah, and Wyoming must remain together.  Who could be the sixth team? 

Boise State would prefer to be included with BYU and Utah.  But adding Boise State into the mix would really create an unbalanced division. 

So, Boise State, as much as it would prefer to be with BYU and Utah, will be in a different division. 

Boise State already travels a lot in the WAC, so travelling to the MWC teams would actually be closer.

The Gang of Five are also five of six teams located at the highest altitude in the proposed expanded conference.  New Mexico is the sixth and has been a long-term partner with the rest of the Gang of Five and so would be a logical fit for a Highland Division .

The other six teams, Boise State, Fresno State, Houston, San Diego State, TCU, and UNLV, would have an excellent and competitive division (perhaps the Lowland Division) with an annual showdown between Boise State and TCU, as well as many other great games.

Ultimately, the MWC would usually have a conference championship game between Boise State or TCU versus BYU or Utah, a match-up of Top 20 teams most years.

Conclusion

As a conference, this expansion would be adding three quality teams, all of which would help to improve the overall perception of the conference and aid in not only in obtaining BCS status, but also improving its market value. 

While some would rather stand pat, standing still would most likely result in the MWC being left behind once again.  Teams will leave as the general wave of conference expansion and realignment takes place. 

The MWC must be proactive in the face of the coming realignments in order to attempt to prevent these possible defections.  Adding depth and quality to the conference will help the conference secure its proper position in the BCS structure.