Penguins Better Off NOT Winning Atlantic Division?

Ever since the Atlantic Division became a two-horse race, the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils have been jockeying back and forth for weeks—months, really.

Common wisdom is that it's important for the Pens to win the Division and assure themselves the No. 2 (or, with the recent resurgence of the Buffalo Sabres, at least the No. 3) seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

However, after watching the Penguins' play after the Olympic break ended, I'm not so sure that the team would be worse off if it finishes the year secnd in the Division and fourth in the Eastern Conference.

Allow me to explain.

With the Washington Capitals positioned as the top seed in the East (and now having officially captured the Presidents' Trophy as the NHL's best regular season team), the idea behind wanting to finish second (or third) in the conference was to be sure to avoid them, if possible, until the Eastern Conference Finals.

If the chalk held, two other teams would have cracks at upsetting the Caps, while the Pens' could get back in their postseason groove before facing what everyone commonly believes will be the toughest matchup in the conference in round three.

That's still a fair scenario for Pittsburgh—there's no doubt.

But it may not be a good idea to think so far ahead.

The Penguins would have to get to round three, after all.

And maybe the Pens' best path to getting back to the Eastern Conference finals for the third straight season isn't one which would match them up against the Caps' in that round, but instead might let them see the Caps' one round sooner. Like they did last season.

And no, I'm not suggesting that simply because that's the path Pittsburgh took to win the Stanley Cup last year.

I'm suggesting that for another reason.

If the Penguins win the Atlantic Division and finish second (or third) in the East, they're likely going to match up against a notably weaker opponent in the first round -- either the New York Rangers, Boston Bruins or Philadelphia Flyers, most likely. At best, they might draw the Montreal Canadiens. They could even draw the Atlanta Thrashers.

All of those clubs are squads the Penguins should be able to handle.

HOWEVER, based on the relatively inconsistent way Pittsburgh has been playing lately, they may be better off facing a stronger opponent in the first round -- someone who will test them and force them to get on their game quicker, rather than an opponent like the Bruins or Rangers who may lull them into a false sense of playoff security.

The Ottawa Senators -- pretty much locked into the No. 5 hole in the East, and ticketed to play the secnd place finisher in the Atlantic Division -- would provide that test.

Sure, there are dangers to going that route. I mean, it's never a bad idea to face a weaker team because doing so could let a club get on a roll, and almost every Stanley Cup Champion needs an easy series along the way -- whether expected or unexpected.

Pittsburgh happened to get theirs last year in the Conference Finals against the Carolina Hurricanes.

But the Penguins are playoff tested, and I think their uneven level of play recently shows they may need quickly jumpstarted back into that mode.

An early, first-round romp over the bottom feeders in the East may not provide that to them.

If Pittsburgh wins the Atlantic, the best case scenario for them in the first round might be to match up against -- of all the teams mentioned above -- the arch-rival Flyers.

Yes, the Flyers have a lot of talent and there's a risk to facing a club with skill who has underachieved but can break out at any point.

Unfortunately for the Pens' cross-state rivals, Philadelphia's goaltending is a total disaster and that alone is likely to keep them from doing anything in the post-season.

Still, because they are such a big rival to Pittsburgh, the Pens' would not likely take them lightly. The Flyers would force them to get up for every game and assume the physical mentality that's necessary for the grind of a long post-season.

If the Penguins draw the Bruins, Rangers, Thrashers or Canadiens in the first round instead, they probably will win, but may also be more susceptible to defeat in round two at the hands of what would expectedly be a strong Buffalo Sabres club.

I'm not saying that the Penguins are absolutely, 100 percent in a better position if they finish second in the Division and fourth in the East, where they would match up against a competitive Senators team to start the playoffs -- and then, potentially, the heavyweight Capitals in the second round.

But that may be the best route for the team this year.