Alabama Football: A Realistic Preview of the Tide's Upcoming Season

Reading many other articles and comments by other SEC fans, I see that very few people are taking the 2008-2009 Alabama football team seriously.  According to most people I've heard from, Alabama will not do a thing this year.

Not a nine or more win season.

Not finishing any better than third in the West.

And God forbid the mention of a SEC Championship.

I've even read where one man said Bama will be lucky to win five games this season.

Five games?  Wow, that's all?

I fail to see the logic behind that statement, considering they won seven last year, not to mention the close losses to Georgia in overtime, LSU, Mississippi State—and of course, the loss that never should've happened in Louisiana Monroe.

So with a change here or there, Bama could've and really should've won at least eight or nine games last season.

However, like many other SEC fans like to tell us Bama fans, let's not dwell on the past (referring to the Bear Bryant Era).

Of course, I am a Bama fan, but I tend to be objective in most subject matters that I debate.  I don't make outrageous predictions like an undefeated season with a National Championship, like many do.  Like the headline says, this is a realistic preview of the Tide's upcoming football season.

Before I get started, let me explain how I am determining this.  I will not be doing a game by game analysis, because in college football and especially the SEC, it's just too hard to determine which individual games a team will and won't win.

How many LSU fans would've told you that they thought they were going to lose to Kentucky and Arkansas last season?  Probably zero.

My technique is to group the games in sets of threes.  This way you should be able to get a more accurate outcome.  So let's get started.

Group 1: Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky

This stretch will end either 3-0 or 2-1.  Of course, the one loss would be to Clemson, with the game being played at a neutral site, the Georgia Dome.  I wouldn't be surprised either way by the outcome here.

However, for argument's sake I'm going to say Clemson wins this one.  We all know they are a first half team.

A loss to Clemson (or any other out of conference team) is not a huge deal because I don't expect Bama to contend for a National Championship this season.

After three games, 2-1 (0-0 SEC)

Group 2: @ Arkansas, @ Georgia, Kentucky

This stretch will more than likely end at 2-1, with the loss being to Georgia, of course.  It did take overtime for Georgia to win last year, so I wouldn't be shocked if Bama pulled off the upset here.  But at this point you have to give the edge to the Bulldogs.

Arkansas just lost too much to contend this year.  With McFadden, Jones, and even Monk gone, this game should be a win.  Arkansas' defensive unit wasn't very good last year, and I don't expect a great improvement this year either.

Kentucky is in the same boat.  The Cats' heart and soul (Woodson) is gone, and their defense isn't exactly stellar.  At home this should also be a win.

Update: After six games, 4-2 (2-1 SEC)

Group 3: Ole Miss, @ Tennessee, Arkansas State

This stretch will end either 3-0 or 2-1.  The only possible loss is to Tennessee.  I find this game very hard to pick because Tennessee has been very inconsistent the past few years.  Last year Bama did win 41-17 though.  With a new QB and several defensive changes, I have to give the edge to Bama.

Ole Miss should be improved, but at home Bama should take it.  Arkansas State should be a cupcake.

Update: After nine games, 7-2 (4-1 SEC)

Group 4: @ LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn

This is by far the toughest stretch that the Tide will face during the season.  They will either finish this last part of their schedule 2-1 or 1-2.

Something I'm tired of hearing about from LSU fans is that they are somehow going to win 10 or 11 games in the regular season.  That's just not going to happen because of the loss of too many key players on both sides of the ball.  I know you have good recruits, but so does everyone else.

History tells us LSU will have at least three losses.  In 2004 Auburn went 13-0, then lost their QB, both RBs, and several defensive players; the next season they went 9-3.  In 2005 Alabama went 10-3, then lost their QB, RB, all three LBs, and several other defensive players; next season, 6-7.

In 2006 Florida went 13-1, then lost their QB, HB, WR, and several defensive player; the next season (even with the Heisman trophy winner) they went 9-4.  Even the 2003 LSU Tigers went 13-1, then lost their QB, WR, and several defensive players, finishing the next season 9-3.

So I'm tired of hearing some LSU fans (not all) saying they are going 11-1 this season.  History and logical thinking says no.  That being said, I'm still going to give LSU the victory here.  Baton Rouge is a tough place to play.

Mississippi State at home should be a win.  Coach Croom has done an excellent job with that program, but they need more playmakers to compete with the rest of the SEC.

Now for the big one, Auburn!  Even though they lost some players on defense, they should still be very good on that side of the ball.  The key is, how is unproven QB Kodi Burns going to play this year?

This is a tough one, but since the game is in Tuscaloosa, I have to give Alabama the win.  I see the Iron Bowl being the determining factor as to who comes out of the West with a 6-2 record, only because I see LSU having three SEC losses (@ Auburn, @ Florida, and Georgia).

The final update: At the end of the regular season Alabama will be 9-3 (6-2 SEC).  8-4 (5-3 SEC) is possible as well.

If Alabama does finish with fewer than eight wins, I'll be shocked.  However, predicting a season is very hard, like I said before, so regardless of whether Bama wins the West or not, I see either Georgia or Florida winning the SEC Championship game.

Alabama is a much better team than some people realize.  As of today, John Parker Wilson is by far the best QB in the West, and their running game with Coffee and Grant is as good as LSU and Auburn's tandems.  Their offensive line is one of the best, anchored by All-American Andre Smith, and although I expect Auburn's defense to be the best, Bama's defense should be no slouch.

A lot of it will come down to how well JPW plays (same with LSU and Auburn) and if the new wide receivers step up.