Reading many other articles and comments by other SEC fans, I see that very few people are taking the 2008-2009 Alabama football team seriously. According to most people I've heard from, Alabama will not do a thing this year.
Not a nine or more win season.
Not finishing any better than third in the West.
And God forbid the mention of a SEC Championship.
I've even read where one man said Bama will be lucky to win five games this season.
Five games? Wow, that's all?
I fail to see the logic behind that statement, considering they won seven last year, not to mention the close losses to Georgia in overtime, LSU, Mississippi State—and of course, the loss that never should've happened in Louisiana Monroe.
So with a change here or there, Bama could've and really should've won at least eight or nine games last season.
However, like many other SEC fans like to tell us Bama fans, let's not dwell on the past (referring to the Bear Bryant Era).
Of course, I am a Bama fan, but I tend to be objective in most subject matters that I debate. I don't make outrageous predictions like an undefeated season with a National Championship, like many do. Like the headline says, this is a realistic preview of the Tide's upcoming football season.
Before I get started, let me explain how I am determining this. I will not be doing a game by game analysis, because in college football and especially the SEC, it's just too hard to determine which individual games a team will and won't win.
How many LSU fans would've told you that they thought they were going to lose to Kentucky and Arkansas last season? Probably zero.
My technique is to group the games in sets of threes. This way you should be able to get a more accurate outcome. So let's get started.
Group 1: Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky
This stretch will end either 3-0 or 2-1. Of course, the one loss would be to Clemson, with the game being played at a neutral site, the Georgia Dome. I wouldn't be surprised either way by the outcome here.
However, for argument's sake I'm going to say Clemson wins this one. We all know they are a first half team.
A loss to Clemson (or any other out of conference team) is not a huge deal because I don't expect Bama to contend for a National Championship this season.
- B/R Ticket Guide
After three games, 2-1 (0-0 SEC)
Group 2: @ Arkansas, @ Georgia, Kentucky
This stretch will more than likely end at 2-1, with the loss being to Georgia, of course. It did take overtime for Georgia to win last year, so I wouldn't be shocked if Bama pulled off the upset here. But at this point you have to give the edge to the Bulldogs.
Arkansas just lost too much to contend this year. With McFadden, Jones, and even Monk gone, this game should be a win. Arkansas' defensive unit wasn't very good last year, and I don't expect a great improvement this year either.
Kentucky is in the same boat. The Cats' heart and soul (Woodson) is gone, and their defense isn't exactly stellar. At home this should also be a win.
Update: After six games, 4-2 (2-1 SEC)
Group 3: Ole Miss, @ Tennessee, Arkansas State
This stretch will end either 3-0 or 2-1. The only possible loss is to Tennessee. I find this game very hard to pick because Tennessee has been very inconsistent the past few years. Last year Bama did win 41-17 though. With a new QB and several defensive changes, I have to give the edge to Bama.
Ole Miss should be improved, but at home Bama should take it. Arkansas State should be a cupcake.
Update: After nine games, 7-2 (4-1 SEC)
Group 4: @ LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
This is by far the toughest stretch that the Tide will face during the season. They will either finish this last part of their schedule 2-1 or 1-2.
Something I'm tired of hearing about from LSU fans is that they are somehow going to win 10 or 11 games in the regular season. That's just not going to happen because of the loss of too many key players on both sides of the ball. I know you have good recruits, but so does everyone else.
History tells us LSU will have at least three losses. In 2004 Auburn went 13-0, then lost their QB, both RBs, and several defensive players; the next season they went 9-3. In 2005 Alabama went 10-3, then lost their QB, RB, all three LBs, and several other defensive players; next season, 6-7.
In 2006 Florida went 13-1, then lost their QB, HB, WR, and several defensive player; the next season (even with the Heisman trophy winner) they went 9-4. Even the 2003 LSU Tigers went 13-1, then lost their QB, WR, and several defensive players, finishing the next season 9-3.
So I'm tired of hearing some LSU fans (not all) saying they are going 11-1 this season. History and logical thinking says no. That being said, I'm still going to give LSU the victory here. Baton Rouge is a tough place to play.
Mississippi State at home should be a win. Coach Croom has done an excellent job with that program, but they need more playmakers to compete with the rest of the SEC.
Now for the big one, Auburn! Even though they lost some players on defense, they should still be very good on that side of the ball. The key is, how is unproven QB Kodi Burns going to play this year?
This is a tough one, but since the game is in Tuscaloosa, I have to give Alabama the win. I see the Iron Bowl being the determining factor as to who comes out of the West with a 6-2 record, only because I see LSU having three SEC losses (@ Auburn, @ Florida, and Georgia).
The final update: At the end of the regular season Alabama will be 9-3 (6-2 SEC). 8-4 (5-3 SEC) is possible as well.
If Alabama does finish with fewer than eight wins, I'll be shocked. However, predicting a season is very hard, like I said before, so regardless of whether Bama wins the West or not, I see either Georgia or Florida winning the SEC Championship game.
Alabama is a much better team than some people realize. As of today, John Parker Wilson is by far the best QB in the West, and their running game with Coffee and Grant is as good as LSU and Auburn's tandems. Their offensive line is one of the best, anchored by All-American Andre Smith, and although I expect Auburn's defense to be the best, Bama's defense should be no slouch.
A lot of it will come down to how well JPW plays (same with LSU and Auburn) and if the new wide receivers step up.
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4 months ago
Georgia got alot better as the year went along last year and like you said you cant make predictions about SEC games based on precedent for example tennessee demolished georgia last year and next week got thumped by bama so the fact that georgia needed OT to beat bama last year means bama has a shot to beat them this year is pretty shaky
4 months ago
Thank you Graham. I did give UGA to win though. I was just making the case that Bama has a shot in the game, even though UGA is considered heads and shoulders above bama right now.
4 months ago
Good article. I gave you 5 stars. You are absolutely correct about LSU fans not being able to predict before the start of the 2007 season that our only two losses would be to Arkansas and Kentucky, especially Kentucky.
I found myself making predictions at the beginning of each group and then seeing how my predictions matched up with yours. I think your predictions are right on. I usually don't care who wins the Iron Bowl, unless it affects LSU's chances of winning the SEC West. After Bama plays @ LSU, I'll pretty much be over the Saban saga. I would like to see Tuberville lose the Iron Bowl. My opinion of his character is low.
from 4 months ago
Thanks Paul, I just wrote the same article about LSU. Check it out.
4 months ago
You never know about these things. I think you are an Alabama fan and that's a good review for someone with a vested interest. Why do you think you'll lose to Clemson? They haven't beaten you in 103 years, you've won 11 in a row versus the Tigers.
You should write some more about this season's SEC teams. You have a good knack for using the right words to make an article interesting.
from 4 months ago
Thanks.
I gave Alabama a loss to Clemson because I wanted to avoid conflict for the most part. I can hear it now if i gave bama a 10 win season, "you're an idiot."
Personally I feel the game could go either way. Clemson tends to dominate the first half and then fall apart in the second half. They have an excellent running game and Aaron Kelly is an excellent WR. There defense was pretty good last year too.
A lot rest on JPW.
4 months ago
I agree with a lot of what you had to say. I think that Bama has a really good shot at winning the west this year due to the fact that they are the only team with a solid starting QB. I think it is very unlikely that Bama will win the SEC, though.
4 months ago
This isn't a very productive comment, but oh well: The picture for this article is hilarious. Well played.
4 months ago
Good article...I agree that it is unwise to count out any SEC team. But my opinion is, if there is a dark hourse in the SEC then it's UT. Nobody is giving them a shot and I think (assuming they decide to play defense this year) they'll be a solid team.
The tough thing about the SEC is that you can have a great overall record and still not play for the SEC...see UGA 2007. Also, look at Bama in 2005. You guys were 10-2 on the year, I think, and still finished 3rd in the SEC West.
In other words, to see how well Bama will do in the SEC West (and therefore the SEC in general), don't bother looking at all the games on the schedule. Really there are only two games to worry about historically speaking of course...LSU and AU. Bama can go undefeated in all other games, but if they lose those two games, they will probably be 3rd in the West.
Likewise as an AU fan, I must admit that we MUST beat LSU if we want a realistic shot at playing for SEC...it's all about giving the individual games their proper weight when talking about the SEC race.
That's why it's the toughest conference in football...you can have a great team and still so nothing with it if you lose to the wrong team...once again, see UGA 2007. If they beat UT, then they're probably your 2007 SEC and National Champs, but that one loss means they got squat instead.
4 months ago
i do not think that alabama will be close to 9-3. i think they will be closer to 7-5 or 6-6. especially in the powerhouse SEC, they will continue to struggle a fair amount
from 4 months ago
Because?
4 months ago
Right, 'Bama should breeze through the 'cupcakes', but they will lose at LSU, Tennessee, Georgia and -- I'm sorry to say it once again- Auburn. The thing is that in the SEC, every game is a toss-up. Look at Florida vs Ole Miss last year.
from 4 months ago
If ever game is a toss up then how can you say they will lose to LSU, Tenn, UGA, and Auburn?
4 months ago
look at the Ole Miss Bama game last year...
4 months ago
Alex, I get what your saying about every game being a toss up in the SEC, that's why as an average team you can't realistically predict that they'll win ever game. When you look at Bama's schedule the only loss that screams at you is @ Georgia. Every other game is a possible win, but being realistic you know an average ( I don't like that word, average is 6-6, lets say non elite team) team wont win all their games but wont lose them all either.
You can't say Auburn is an automatic loss because they are playing at home. I think they will split the road series against Tenn and LSU, 1-1.
4 months ago
Here's my thinking (before I get screamed at):
Nick Saban still has a lot of work to do.
I see the LSU loss because of the "Nick Saban going back to Tiger Stadium" revenge factor. The Tigers will be REALLY up for this.
With Tennessee, I think they'll lose because 'Bama didn't do a whole lot on the road last year to make me think otherwise.
The Georgia loss screams out at me, but will be a very close game. I won't be surprised if it goes to OT. That game last year was the game of games.
And Auburn? I'm saying that because (at the moment), I believe Auburn are a better team on paper than Alabama. Saying that, the Crimson Tide will be desperate to get the monkey - or should I say Tiger - off their back. Having said that, this is one of the last games of the season and if Bama beat Georgia, UT and LSU, then I'll be tipping the Crimson Tide.
Fair?
4 months ago
Interesting article. I have them at 8-4.
Your comment about the Iron Bowl, since it's in Tuscaloosa you give the win to Alabama? So how good the teams are doesn't matter, just the location?
You do know that Auburn has never lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa?
4 months ago
Good stuff Michael. Two things to consider:
You said Clemson usually falls apart. That has been Bama's problem the last few years as well. We started off great last year and couldn't win come November. In 2005 we progressively went down hill the entire season, which led to our destruction against LSU & AU. So I think both teams will be fired up & ready to go this first game of the season. At a neutral site I would say it is virtually a toss-up as well, but should be a classic battle. It may be the Crimson blood running through my body, but I feel as if something special will come of this team, and Saban should improve in year 2.
Auburn will somehow be or last hurdle to coming out on top in the west I believe. We've struggled against LSU, but like you said they should slip a little this year. We've struggled againts MSU, but Saban will hopefully put a stop to that nonsense. So, alas, AU is in the way. I think as of right now they are the biggest question of the whole conference. Many say their new system was great against Clemson in their bowl game. But that was also with a seasoned QB. A sophmore QB will have his faults and will rely on his team to bail him out. Every other position has to step up to help a young QB. So...with a new system and all, I think Bama & Auburn should be closely matched this year. My early prediction - Bama gets the monkey off their back in two huge ways: 1st win vs AU in T-Town and no 7th finger! Bama in '08 10-2
4 months ago
BLAH ,BLAH, why don't we all go play golf and not worry about this "crap" we can't control ! I can pretty much control the flight of my golf ball, can't putt for crap though!!
ROLL TIDE now and FOREVER!!
4 months ago
Ha, of course how good the teams are matter. Right now, I see Auburn and Alabama as both being on the same level. Auburn might be a bit better right now. Like I said, I expect their defense to be very good but their offense isn't that great RIGHT NOW. Burns is unproven and your running game only averaged 3.8 yds a carry last year and that is suppose to be your strong point.
Since the teams where pretty much equal and they are playing in Tuscaloosa (playing at home is always a good thing) I gave the slight edge to Bama. If this game was at Auburn I probably would've given to Auburn, because again, neither one is that much better than the other right now.
Come on Justin, unless bama sucks and auburn is loaded I have to give Bama the win over our hated rival. Im sure you would do the same.
Auburn never losing in Tuscaloosa is a bit of a misleading stat because we both now they haven't played there very often. They use to play in Birmingham for a long time.
4 months ago
Pretty fair assessment.
"This is a tough one, but since the game is in Tuscaloosa, I have to give Alabama the win."
Games in Tuscaloosa don't really seem to bother Auburn.
from 4 months ago
It's almost as absurd as saying that we'll beat UGA because we have them at home. :)
4 months ago
Wow, Liger you're really missing the point here.
UGA is an elite team not only in the SEC but the country. So you should expect an ELITE team to go into your house and beat you.
Auburn isn't an elite team in the SEC ( at best they are 3rd) and not the country. Therefore, you shouldn't expect a team that isn't elite to come into your house and beat you.
Do you understand
Elite vs average = Elite victory no matter where they play
averaged vs averaged = toss up, but I gave it to the home team becuase that's a clear advantage regardless of the recent history.
from 4 months ago
It was a self-deprecating joke at the expense of Auburn. How is he missing the point? It was obviously tongue in cheek.
4 months ago
Im still not sure how "realistic" that is entirely. Alabama played close with teams last year and I notice you put heavy emphasis on that. You failed to mention that we played close with Houston, lost to MSU, Lost to LA Monroe, beat ARK in the waning moments and held on against Ole Miss. The point im making is that their is a huge grey area in playing close. It doesn't neccesarily mean much, it might just mean your opponents don't feel they have to be overly risky in order to win the game. That being said I think we have some really big weaknesses. A realistic opinion would say "outside of Rolando McClain, im not sure we have an sec quality linebacker with any game experience." Yet another would be "we lost 2000 yards in receiving skills with the loss of 3 starters and though we have some young talent, they haven't made big plays in big situations yet (Stover excluded)." Yet another realistic commentary is "our d line was horribly weak last year and we lost by far the best player from that group"...Sure, I have heard the young talent line, but what about experience? It's invaluable....We have a qb who is at best middle of the road arm strength and certainly can't throw a successful deep ball. We have a running game that is built around a guy that is 5'9. We have two huge gaps in the secondary that might have potential for a youth movement but still it's inexperience. Let's be realistic for a moment...On offense, who on our team frightens the opponent? On Defense, who on our team besides McClain, Johnson and Jackson (incoming frosh not included) would you say stirs any fear into opponents? I believe 8 wins is quite possible, think 9 is a huge stretch..
4 months ago
I extra win is a huge stretch?
Arkansas was a close game last year but who do they have this year? Casey Dick?
We lost to MSU but they haven't gotten better. They stuggled to score last year and haven't really addded any playmakers. I like what croom is doing though.
I was at the Houston game and it shouldn't have been that close. I banking on Saban having Alabama playing more consistent ball in his second year. That will be a key for Alabama this year, consistent.
They running game should be good, Grant averaed 5.0 yds/carry last season and coffee is 6-2, 200 lbs and he runs like a bruser. Towards the end of the season he got the bulk of the carries. Upchurch is a nice third option.
Ole Miss shouldn't beat Bama in Tuscaloosa no matter how close the game was last year. They played UF close too but that doesn't mean they are going to beat them either. The receivers do concern me some but we did get Julio Jones who is 6-4 210, so he's a big target. Other should step up but you're right that a question mark right now.
Like i said, I wouldn't be surprised by an 8-4 season.
4 months ago
I can't argue with those predictions. I was even predicting 9 wins at the least, with possible losses to Clemson, GA, & maybe LSU.
4 months ago
You state you are objective and then say bama "could've and should've" won at least 8 or 9 games last year.
You don't think Arkansas can say that about your game last year? That only works one way? What you fail to understand is nearly every team across the country can play in close games. The difference is the good ones know how to win and Alabama is not one of those teams. Yes, they won a close game with Arkansas but collapsed down the stretch losing multiple games to including some to perennially bad teams like ULM and MSU. Those doormats were more clutch than Alabama. They did not have better players but they were better TEAMS.
LSU fans have every right to predict 11 wins. LSU has won at least 11 games each of the last three years. It seems like they have alot more reason to predict that than you do to expect bama to make great improvement this year. You should take the crimson glasses off, in one article you wrote about LSU you say LSU cannot possibly beat UGA (unless UGA overlooks them! ) and in this one you say it would not surprise you if Bama beats UGA. Get real Homer. At first I thought you were a UGA fan but I see you are a typical bama fan that just hates to see LSU winning all the time and thats why you say ignorant statements like that. It will be fun to see LSU beat them for the 6th time in a row.
My prediction for bama: 6-6 and a crappy bowl.
Sincerly,
Z
from about 1 month ago
Are you still going with that 6-6 prediction and a crappy bowl for Bama?
4 months ago
Well I also am a realistic BAMA Fan ([]), but I think your reply outlining the different deficiencies of BAMA will be the best summary of thier season.
I will be watching and cheering for every game and will likely even make it to a home game or two, but I am also expecting to have my heart crushed more than 3 or 4 times this season.
The lack of experience, the conduct issues off the field forcing the loss of even more experience, a quarterback who has an adequate arm but no ability to find his open receivers, and no apparent 'star' receivers to try and throw the ball to if they can get open (remember, he can't scan the field to find the one who is open), and a running squad that has not found enough yardage to make a difference in winning a game will likely make this a very disheartening season to even the heartiest BAMA fan.
Without even speculating about the success of the defense, there is not enough offence in the form of a JPW BAMA squad that can put consistant points on the board with even one of those 'doormat' teams everyone seems to drool over.
BAMA will probably be able to spare themselves a loosing season this year, but just barely. But I have a feeling I am not going to be the only grown BAMA fan that is going to be crying in my cheese dip on various Saturday's this year.
But then again I am a BAMA fan non-the-less, so go get us a championship Saban and make everyone feel stupid for doubting you.
4 months ago
I want to get this straight, Bama went 7-6 last season, now have they gotten better?
LSU went 12-2 last season, have they gotten better?
Answer those questions for me.
from 4 months ago
What is, they have better players at nearly every position for $500 Alex.
4 months ago
Michael
Lets see -
BAMA did not loose one player to the NFL - LSU did.
BAMA has 2 more players on pre-season SEC list than it did in 2007 LSU has 3 less.
BAMA has their entire Team Captains Back in Rashad Johnson Defense, Javier Arenas Special Teams, and Antoine Caldwell from the Offense - LSU has none.
BAMA has Saban and LSU has Less. So you tell me - did BAMA or LSU get better. All of you rival fans that keep counting out BAMA and hoping that we never again reach the level that we were once at are going to be surprised in the very near future.
Of course please do not let facts get in the way
Looking at the last 5 years of recruiting rankings I say that BAMA has as much talent as anyone outside of Florida and Georgia.
Rivals Recruiting Rankings -------- Cut/Paste start --------
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pZkke4ONRas_KHIFlf_wMSw&hl=en -------Cut/Paste end --------
---------Clay--------thebamapage.com
from 4 months ago
I agree Michael, that's why I think LSU will not have the same record as last year. That great LSU team that won the National Championship went 10-2 in the regular season but somehow these LSU fans still think that after everyone they lost they will repeat that record. The 2008 team is not as good or experienced as the 2007 team. There will be a drop off. LSU is not the best team in the SEC, at best 3rd, at best.
I don't think bama will win the SEC but they will compete with Auburn and LSU for the West.
from 4 months ago
All that really matters is what Rivals ranks your players. It doesn't really matter what they do when they actually start playing for your team. "Actual performance on the field" is overrated anyway.
Everybody is just hating on your super-tight logic. Don't stop believing Michael.
4 months ago
Who said actual performance on the field is overrated?
I haven't even said anything about bama's #1 recuriting class other than I think Julio Jones could play a big role this season.
from 4 months ago
When you said that Alabama had the 3rd best talent in the SEC.
4 months ago
When I said I agreed with Michael, I mean I agree that i think LSU isn't as good as last year.
I don't think freshman are going to determine this race.
4 months ago
Show me where i said that.
from 4 months ago
"Looking at the last 5 years of recruiting rankings I say that BAMA has as much talent as anyone outside of Florida and Georgia."
This two Michael jazz is confusing me. But one of you most definitely said that.
4 months ago
How come EVVVVERYONE keeps forgetting that WEEEE(LSU) still have THE DT that was SUPPOSED to be>>>THE BEST defender on tha line @ the start of last year..TYSON JACKSON..ANNND we STILL have RICKY-JEAN FRANCOIS..UHHHH,2 Projected early draft picks for next year..ALONG with 2 Projected early draft picks @ wideout>>>BRANDON LAFELL..AND,the ALL_AMERICAN-in wating.DEMETRYUS BIRD...DUHHHHHH?????....Means WE still have enough talent to take care of business,hahahaha...OH,im sure JPW,AL's QB remembers CHAD JONES,the safety that EVERYBODY saw coming @ him..EXCEPT HIM!!!!...he was a freshman last yr..He's READY!!!!...OH,andddd PATRICK JOHSON,hitting as HARDDD as Mr.Landry did...MANNN???,must i keep naming them..THE MOST IMPORTANT thing to remember issssss>>>We dont have to have an ALL-WORLD QB,we didnt the last 2 Champioships..They were game-managers...That why it helps to have ALL-WORLD wideouts like i mentioned earlier...We ALSO have all our tough game in baton rouge,along with an easier schedule...SOOOOOOO,i guess all i have to say is DONT BE SURPRISED @ our record @ the end of the season...You all MIGHT wanna listen to me,too..Last yr i told EVERYBODY i knew,that we would get to the bcs championship..Think back now..When we were healthy,NOBODY in america couldve stayed close to us,THATS THE TRUTH,unbiased too.....ASK Va-Teck & Ohio st.....
OH,i wish GA would OVERLOOK us,hahahaha....PLZZZZZZ do!!!!!!!....
4 months ago
>>>>Uhhhhh,typed too fast...Meant to say>>>ASK Va-tech & Ohio st...
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