Bracket Busters: Determining Who will Win the Stanley Cup, Part One

This article was inspired by the great work done for college basketball on the website www.bracketscience.com If you have never been on this site, I highly recommend you do so, just for fun of course.

This article is a test (and tease) of your math knowledge and hockey knowledge into one nostalgia playoff packed teaser. This is how you should choose who is gonna win each game in the playoffs. It is based off of statistics based off the past fifteen seasons in the NHL. We look at each individual bracket and help determine who is gonna win by the use of...MATH. Just a friendly reminder, this just for fun, please don't take it too seriously.

Conference Quarterfinals

No. 1 vs No. 8 Seeds (22-8, .733)

Statistically this is the easiest game in the conference. But three out of four games, a one seed doesnt show up or chokes. Since the new structure of the playoffs in 1999 it has happened five times.

Possible Upset Stat: There is one habit that seems to bug these teams that grab the first seed that makes them or break them in these situations. Teams that have a top ten scorer in the league in points.

Teams that DO have a player who is in the top 10 in points at the end of the season have a record of 9-0 in the playoffs since 1998 when facing the No. 8 seed. They are perfect.

The teams that DON'T have a player in the top 10 in points at the end of the season. These teams are 6-5. In other words 100 percent of the teams who have a top-10 player in points move on to the next round. The other 55 percent of teams that dont have a player in the top 10 in points that are first seeds, well only 54.5 percent of those teams move on.

Last season, Boston's Marc Savard finished 9th in the league with 88 points. Boston won their series against Montreal. San Jose did not have a top ten scorer, and they were booted early by Anaheim. 

Out of the eleven No. 8-seeded teams that have faced off against first seeds without top ten scorers only six of them have won. So the question is, how do you determine who is the right No. 8-seeded team to choose?

If you ever find your self in the position to where you need to determine which No. 8-seeded teams fit the correct upset specialist, choose a No. 8 team with an all-star goalie on the roster for veteran experience. The last five No. 1 vs No. 8 upsets, the No. 8 team had an all-star goalie on the roster. Four of those five upsets involved younger goalies with all-star backups.

Upset History: Anahiem over San Jose 2009, Edmonton over Detroit 2006, Montreal over Boston 2002, San Jose over St. Louis 2000, Pittsburgh over New Jersey 1999, Ottawa over New Jersey 1998, New York Rangers over Quebec 1995, San Jose over Detroit 1994

No. 2 vs No. 7 Seeds (18-12, .600)

It has happened eight times in the last nine seasons, but not since 2006. The No. 2 vs No. 7 games is an upset that does not happen often but when it does happen, it is surprising. There is one statistic you need to look at when you are attempting to decide if a seventh seed can be an underdog or not. That little statistic you need is a goaltender with experience.

Possible Upset Stat: The stat you want to know is goaltender experience. Since 1998, seventh seeded teams with a staring goalie in the playoffs who has less than five years of NHL experience have a record of 0-8.

Teams who have an experienced goaltender, who has played in the NHL for at least five years (not seasons, years) these teams have a record of 8-4. In other words 60 percent of the matchups since 1998 have involved an experience goalie.

Of those matchups, 66 percent with an experienced goalie at the seventh seed has an upset. The matchups which feature a young unexperienced goalie advance 0 percent of the time. Well, statistically at least, it hasn't happened.

Upset History: Colorado over Dallas 2006, Montreal over Boston 2004, Anaheim over Detroit 2003, Ottawa over Philadelphia 2002, Los Angeles over Detroit 2001, Toronto over Ottawa 2001, Pittsburgh over Washington 2000, Buffalo over Ottawa 1999, Montreal over Pittsburgh 1998, Edmonton over Colorado 1998, Edmonton over Dallas 1997, San Jose over Calgary 1995, Vancouver over Calgary 1994, Washington over Pittsburgh 1994

No. 3 vs No. 6 Seeds (11-9, .550)

This bracket is the bracket that involves the most upsets. That is for one reason. In 1999, the NHL made a change to where the No. 3-seeded team is a division winner. The third ranked team may not be the third best overall team in the NHL, and in some cases, they may actually be worse record wise than the sixth seeded team.

Possible Upset Stat: In games where the No. 6-seeded team has a better record than the No. 3-seeded team, the No. 6 seed is 3-2 (60 percent win percentage). The No. 6 teams that have had better records then the No. 3 seed in the past 10 seasons are the 2008 Philadelphia Flyers, 2007 Dallas Stars, 2002 New Jersey Devils, 2001 Pittsburgh Penguins and the 1999 Boston Bruins.

The two teams that lost were the 2007 Stars and the 2002 Devils. The Stars faced an all-star goalie from that season in Roberto Luongo, and the 2002 Devils faced Arturs Irbe who had been to the all-star game two seasons previous.

In games where the No. 6-seeded team has a worse record, the No.  6 seed is 6-9 (40 percent win percentage). In matchups between teams in the same division, if that team has won the season series, they were 0-3 in the playoffs. Teams that lost the season series between division foes are 3-3, the same exact record as those teams that matchup against teams in different divisions.

In other words, if you can't tell, this is the biggest obstacle in the playoffs. This is the No. 8 vs No. 9 bracket in the playoffs, you are best at going with your gut.

Upset History: Carolina over New Jersey 2009, Philadelphia over Washington 2008, Colorado over Minnesota 2008, New York Rangers over Atlanta 2007, Anaheim over Calgary 2006, Calgary over Vancouver 2004, Minnesota over Colorado 2003, Pittsburgh over Washington 2001, Boston over Carolina 1999, Pittsburgh over Washington 1995

No. 4 vs No. 5 Seeds (21-9, .700)

The No. 5-seeded teams get an upset three times every five years statistically. Why exactly does this even matchup lead to the No. 4 seed winning so many games? Who knows exactly. Its always a fun matchup though.

The key stat to look at in No. 4 vs No. 5 games in determining the underdog is playoff experience.

Possible Upset Stat: Since 1998, No. 5-seeded teams who have been to the playoffs for their third straight season or more have a record of 5-7 in the playoffs (41.6 percent). Teams that have been to the playoffs two straight seasons or less have a record of 1-7 (12.5 percent).

The only team to win as a No. 5 seed who did not have two straight seasons or more of playoff experience was the 2006 San Jose Sharks. As you can see, having playoff experience triples your chances of winning as a fifth seed in the playoffs.

Upset History: Dallas over Anaheim 2008, New York Rangers over New Jersey 2008, San Jose over Nashville 2007, San Jose over Nashville 2006, Buffalo over Philadelphia 2001, St. Louis over Phoenix 1999, Phoenix over Anaheim 1997, St. Louis over Toronto 1996, New Jersey over Boston 1995

And to close the first round. After all these statistics that just boggle your mind, just remember its all fun and games, Math is Power, and of course make sure you follow me on B/R as i will have my article for the Second Round of the playoffs next week!