Elijah Dukes Cut Loose, Nationals Anticipate a Platoon Replacement In RF

That was a headline I wasn’t expecting when I turned on my computer this morning.

The Washington Nationals had released Elijah Dukes, their presumptive starting right fielder for 2010.

Team general manager Mike Rizzo has told the various media outlets that the decision was strictly a baseball one and had nothing to do with any off-field problems.

Washington Post beat writer Adam Kilgore reported this morning that the Nationals will replace Dukes from a group that includes Mike Morse, Justin Maxwell, Roger Bernadina, and Willie Harris, saying, “The Nationals believe they will get better production by platooning a combination of these players than by playing Dukes alone.”

Though this move has come as a shock, it makes perfect sense. His career numbers have been substandard, though they ooze potential. But the team has decided that all that talent and potential are not enough to offset his meandering, underperforming ways.

As Rizzo also said, the clubhouse makeup has now improved.

It was a good try. Dukes could have become a .300-35-120 star for the cost of a 19-year-old pitcher, Glen Gibson.

Now, Dukes is gone, and Gibson has returned to the organization.

It’s almost as thought it never happened—a mulligan, if you will.

So what becomes of right field?

There is only one player among the group Rizzo mentioned who hits well enough against both right-handers and left-handers to play every day: Mike Morse.

Here are the splits for Morse, Maxwell, Harris, and Bernadina based on a 550 at-bat season against both righties and southpaws (it’s easier to get a feel as to their potential that way):

Mike Morse

Vs. Right-handers: .273-13-82, .335 OBP, .384 SLG Pct.

Vs. Left-handers: .324-4-69, .376 OBP, .449 SLG Pct.

Justin Maxwell

Vs. Right-handers: .227-8-34, .320 OBP, .465 SLG Pct.

Vs. Left-handers: .286-24-72, .352 OBP, .429 SLG Pct.

Willie Harris

Vs. Right-handers: .256-6-32 (22 SB), .335 OBP, .387 SLG Pct.

Vs. Left-handers: .201-4-33 (25 SB), .288 OBP, .303 SLG Pct.

Roger Bernadina

Vs. Right-handers: .200-0-16 (24 SB), .291 OBP, .257 SLG Pct.

Vs. Left-handers: .300-0-0, (32 SB), .364 OBP, .301 SLG Pct.

Note: Roger Bernadina’s major league splits are based on just 80 at-bats. For a better comparison, I have included his minor league splits below, which total more than 1,600 at-bats.

Vs. Right-handers: .281-6-41 (22 SB), .370 OBP, .420 SLG Pct.

Vs. Left-handers: .264-3-34 (24 SB), .370 OBP, .335 SLG Pct.

If Rizzo wanted one man to become an everyday right fielder, Morse seems capable of handling that job, at least offensively. Here is his 162-game career average as a major leaguer:

.293-7-55, .355 on-base percentage, .409 slugging percent.

Defensively, he’s adequate at best, though Mariners blog Detect-O-Vision described his outfield defense as “a disaster” when Morse played in Seattle.

Maxwell’s defense is far better—some consider him to be the best defensive outfielder the Nationals have—and he can hit righties enough to play every day at some point. Here is his 162-game average:

.252-18-41, .333 on-base percentage, .409 slugging percent.

Neither Harris nor Bernadina could be expected to play every day.

The problem the Nationals face from a platoon perspective is that their two best hitters—Morse and Maxwell—are right-handers. Lefty Bernadina actually hits left-handers better, and Harris’ career .256 average against righties just isn’t enough.

Chris Duncan would be a possibility as a platoon partner if healthy. His 162-game career average against righties is very good: .270-29-86, .366 on-base percentage, .486 slugging percent.

But Duncan is not producing this spring, and the back problems that have sidelined him the past couple of years may still be a problem.

Duncan is not a right fielder either. The only reason he played left with the Cardinals is that he would never supplant Albert Pujols at first.

So Duncan is not an answer either.

The best hitting platoon would probably be Willie Harris and Justin Maxwell. This is what their production might look like based on career averages and the proper ratio of platoon at-bats:

Willie Harris: .256—2B: 15—3B: 8—HR: 4—RBI: 33—SB: 18—OBP: .340—SLG: 361

Justin Maxwell: .286—2B: 9—3B: 1—HR: 8—RBI: 25 –SB: 6—OBP: .352—SLG: .429

Again, based on past performance and career splits, the two would combine for the following:

AVE: .263—2B: 24—3B: 9—HR: 12—RBI: 60—SB: 24—OBP: .346—SLG: .387

Teams stocked with talent could afford this type of production from their right fielders, but the Nationals aren’t that type of team. They need a stronger bat from the left side.

If the Nationals really want to platoon right field in 2010, they will need to find another left-handed bat, but there are no remaining free agents who can provide some power from the left side. Geoff Jenkins could be that player, but he didn’t play in 2009.

My guess is that the Nationals will go with either Mike Morse or Justin Maxwell as their semi-regular right fielder, using Willie Harris against particularly difficult righties and in a super-utility role.

But there just aren’t the personnel available to give the Nationals a traditional lefty-righty platoon in right, at least for the moment.