It's popular around these parts to see the glass as half full. With the first preseason game a month from today (August 8 against the 49ers), there's more "ifs, ands, & buts" around the Raider Nation than in Conjunction Junction.
While there's room for optimism after a summer of spending, it's time to introduce a healthy dose of reality to the proceedings. The schedule and the roster don't suggest that these Raiders will find playoff pay-dirt in 2008.
With the NFL's ever-changing personnel landscape, five-year plans are a thing of the past. What you've done for me lately is as irrelevant as what will you do for me two years from now.
What's working?
Rob Ryan's Defense
Ryan has shown the ability to shape a top-flight defense when given the right pieces to the puzzle. It's clear with the additions of Gabril Wilson and DeAngelo Hall the Raiders' secondary is one of the best in the league on paper.
Paired with Nnamdi Asomugha, Hall should form one half of the league's best man-to-man coverage team. Nickel back Stanford Routt showed glimpses of talent as a part-time starter last year, and Michael Huff, while still failing to live up to his draft hype and college performance, will be an upgrade over Stuart Schweigert.
The linebacking crew has speed to burn and gives the Raiders options for coverage and pass rushing. And the defensive line returns Derrick Burgess, hoping that last year's sack total (eight) was a one-year slide.
The Running Back Stable
It's hard to imagine that a year ago anyone would be excited about the return of Huggy Bear, but from the second half of the Miami game until his injury, Justin Fargas was one of the league's most efficient ball carriers in the league.
Add to that a healthy Michael Bush and the most exciting Raider back drafted since a guy named Marcus in Darren McFadden, and even the uncertain status of LaMont Jordan doesn't seem to matter much.
Often overlooked, the Raider fullback position is as solid as it's been since John Ritchie opened holes for Charlie Garner. Fresh legs shouldn't be an issue for this group.
Kicking Game
Some fans will never forgive Al Davis for selecting Seabastian Janikowski in the first round nine years ago, but he rebounded from a dismal 2006 with a solid '07.
And don't look now, but SeaBass is in line to become the second leading scorer in Raider history sometime in 2008.
And no one has had more game practice at punting than Shane Lechler. All that practice paid off, with a gaudy 49.1 yards per kick average. It's one of the NFL's great mysteries that he's not a perennial Pro-Bowler.
What's Keeping Al Up At Night?
The Big Uglies Up Front
Tom Cable did an admirable job last season switching to a zone blocking format and getting the most from his guys. But no single unit relies more on continuity and familiarity than the O-line.
Cable will have at least two new faces in the starting group with stalwart Barry Sims switching area codes to the 415 and the undervalued Jerremy Newberry headed south to San Diego.
It's clear that this line will control the success of the Raider offense. With an inexperienced quarterback, the Raiders will rely heavily on those talented running backs and keeping Russell upright.
And Speaking of Upright...
JaMarcus Russell can throw a football 60 yards on his knees. He's built like a defensive lineman. He can throw a football through a brick wall.
He's also thrown 66 passes in his NFL career, struggled with learning a stripped down playbook last season, and enters this year as The Man for a team in desperate need of leadership. While he may end up as great as his clippings, the jury's out. The Raiders better hope the verdict is a good one!
Who's Catching That Thing?
Drew Carter, Javon Walker, and Ronald Curry head into the season as the first three guys on the depth chart. While no one questions the potential talent, this is a suspect group at best.
Walker and Curry have a long history of leg injuries. Carter had a breakout season (of sorts) last year, but has no real legacy of success. The best options for JaMarcus will probably be tight end Zach Miller and his running backs led by McFadden.
There are those that believe that with a young quarterback, screens, flairs and five-yard curls may be the best patterns anyway, but consider this—how many 15-play drives can you expect Russell to run in year two?
Who's Stopping The Run?
With Warren Sapp taking his mouth to the networks, the Raiders will rely on a series of gambles up the middle, including the $55-million man, Tommy Kelly. Things are so uncertain that you can look for the Raiders to bring back an old face for training camp in either Sam Adams or Grady Jackson.
Gerard Warren is a potential cap hit but remains a talent tease. Greg Spires and Kalimba Edwards, both signed this offseason, have the potential to help from the end spot, particularly Spires.
There are as many question marks as there are answers heading in to camp. While the potential is there, the performance is unproven. With so many new parts to these engines it's hard to imagine there won't be some rough road ahead.
Next week we'll take a look at the season game-by-game and give our first prediction on the season's performance.
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3 months ago
Nice writeup, very fair minded. More depth on some of these situations would be nice though.
3 months ago
Here's a prediction: in six months the Raiders will be feeling deep buyer's remorse for some of the guys they overpaid for.
from 3 months ago
Hey Osi-
What you don't realize is that if 2010 goes uncapped (as the owners want), they'll be able to accelerate all of the bonuses for the unwanted players.
from 3 months ago
Good luck hoping for that.
3 months ago
OK there Osi. You realize we took your safety who you guys had to use your 1st round pick replacing and I doubt you will have a league-leading-tackler over a three year span in him. There is very little remorse in back loaded contracts genius.
Not to mention the fact that there is no real reason a Giant fan would hate on a Raider article. I mean you may have went all the way least season but some annalists are actually predicting that we may do as well as you this year.
from 3 months ago
Annalists????????????????
I couldn't give less of a shit about the Raiders, but a football fan I can chime in with my opinion. BTW, if the Giants thought Wilson was worth $6 mil/season they would have paid him.
3 months ago
i agree comepletly with osi. the raiders should have spent more money building depth at each positon instead of spending so much money on mediocre players
3 months ago
Because when you go 4-12 you should change the starting roster at all? Just add depth and you'll win. Good call.
3 months ago
Kelly when healthy according to Rob Ryan and Warren Sap is the best 3 tech in the league. Other teams were lineing up to sign Kelly.
Walker was probably a streach. We'll see what we get. The deal was really only for 2 years the way it was structured.
All of the other signings were solid.
from 3 months ago
Agreed. And it could be argued that Walker will work out if they can get him in shape and Kelly will work out if they can get him healthy.
3 months ago
How the heck is Rob Ryan's defense something that is working? Sorry, but look at our Run Defense rankings since Rob´s been here (´04): 22, 25, 25, 31. Ok, now tell me we need DeAngelo and not D-Line help...Now look at our overall defensive rankings since 04: 30, 27, 3, 22... And please don´t mention the 06 ranking, you know other teams scored a field goal and began taking a knee cause they know Bed&Breakfast couldn't call a godarn play... Look for monster games from LT, LJ, and whoever runs for Denver...im still pissed that Rob didnt get the hook after last season.
3 months ago
Since Walker refuses to get professional help over the tragic loss of his friend, and the beat down he got, which according to reports he can't remember do you really think he will be able to be a productive player for the RAIDERS?
The physical qualities of the game are on thing, It is just hard for me to beleive he will be mentaly healthy enough to contribute in a positive fashion. Regardless of how he got where he is, we are asking alot of a man who is obviously hurting inside.
One KRAKEN's Opinion
from 3 months ago
You are right. Obviously he was so depressed that he took it upon himself to go to Vegas and spend $15,000 sorrowfully spraying club patrons with Champagne.
3 months ago
We can all comment on players, coaches, this and that. Been a raider fan since 1967, watched alot of games and nothing will change much until Al Davis steps down, Sorry to say. Reason I say this, Al has had a great run, been a great addition to football, but the current NFL resign hates him and the NFL Zebras bear that out. Yeah,, I know, I know, that the Raiders get a lot of stuff called on them that is valid, but when a call is questionable , 9 out of 10 times its going against the Raiders. You doubt this, look back at all those years the Miami Dolphins were the least peniltized team in the NFL. Guess who was head of the Zebras, right, Don Shula. I love the game and to see the Raiders play, just would like to see the game decided on the field and not by the zebras. I also hate the NFL for this TV coverage crap. Used to be you could watch the game and all the teams, then they came out with the NFL Ticket. Now they have special Thursday and Saturday games and this NEW NFL Network. Where will it end? Why doesn't somebody get smart and just have the option to be able to get one game or one team a week, for minimual charge. But nothing is cheap with the NFL anymore, except the treatment toward the fans.
3 months ago
ok back to our topic......
Al is not afraid to look ahead and try to predict the market. Both Walker and Kelly were going to be sought after and seeing the collective bargaining agreement's demise coming, Al acted. He didn't consult Michael Silver, Glenn Dickey or Jason Cole. SURPRISE!!!
We will see the outcome, but in the end, Al did it his way, and career to date he has more successes than any of the bashers have attempts.
I'm in.
3 months ago
Here is the deal. If Russell can be protected and he can manage the game and limit turnovers and progress as the season goes on, the Raiders will finish second in the AFC West and MAY be in position for a Wild Card. It is likely that the runner up in the AFC West will grab a wildcard because the division has a weak schedule.
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