NCAA Tournament Bubble Trouble: Bracket Preview Feb 28

Two weeks until Selection Sunday and most of the college basketball talk revolves around the bubble teams. The vast masses of the mediocre striving for one last push into the NCAA tournament. These bubble teams rarely go very far in the tournament with George Mason being an exception, as the tournament is usually about the top 10-12 teams in the end.

However, the bubble bunch can make a short term impact.

Last year, five of the six at-large teams that were 10 seeds or higher, won their first round games. 2006 also saw five double-digit seeded at large teams win. In 2004 and 2007, no at-large double-digit seeds won games. The success definitely varies on the strength of the next tier of teams below the top 10-12.

I thought last year's bubble was bad with Arizona and Minnesota and even Boston College making it (Boston College last year could have been the worst No. 7 seed ever). This year is a battle of the non-achievers and 500 club battling it out for spots. For awhile last week, Arizona State was actually considered a solid at-large contender.

Notre Dame is looking strong again after winning at Georgetown, an impossible task to achieve unless you are a powerhouse like Old Dominion or South Florida. Charlotte is still randomly discussed despite losing four out of six and making Old Dominion look like Kansas. In fact, those last two sentences are why Old Dominion probably gets an at-large even if they lose the Colonial. They are the kings of the mediocre.

Bracketbusters last weekend helped one team, and that was Utah State. It hurt Old Dominion to an extent, and destroyed Wichita State, William and Mary and Siena. St Mary's actually helped themselves by not playing in it. The concept isn't necessarily awful, but whoever picks the games obviously is working in the interest of the SEC or Big East or another BCS conference.

The more mid-major televised losses ESPN can show, the better a Mississippi St or Louisville looks. I was excited for a moment by my Murray State revelation, and then they lost Thursday night and ruined any at-large chances. Still, bracketbusters should showcase a team like Murray State. Have them at Northern Iowa.

Have Wichita State play at Siena. Have Kent State play Butler. Create good matchups that can be a benefit if a team performs well.

Bracket As of Games Completed Through Feb. 27:

South Region (Houston)

Thursday (Oklahoma City)

1 Kansas

16 North Texas

8 Wake Forest

9 UTEP

Friday (Spokane)

4 Wisconsin

13 Murray St

5 Butler

12 UConn

Thursday (New Orleans)

6 Maryland

11 Minnesota

3 Vanderbilt

14 Oakland

Friday (Buffalo)

7 Oklahoma State

10 Cornell

2 West Virginia

15 Morgan State

(This bracket stands out as having a lot of good but flawed teams. No matter what, it appears Kansas will have to go back to Oklahoma City for the first two rounds, and that didn't work out so well in 2005.)

Midwest Region (St Louis)

Friday (Milwaukee)

1 Kentucky

16 Jackson St/Lipscomb

8 Missouri

9 Clemson

Friday (Spokane)

4 Temple

13 Siena

5 Michigan St

12 Marquette

Thursday (Providence)

6 Baylor

11 Mississippi St

3 Pittsburgh

14 Akron

Friday (Milwaukee)

7 Northern Iowa

10 UNLV

2 Purdue

15 UC Santa Barbara

(This is the geographically confused bracket. I put Purdue at No. 2 just as a prediction for now. If they can prove they can remain in top form without Robbie Hummel, they will go back to a No. 1.)

East Region (Syracuse)

Friday (Jacksonville)

1 Duke

16 Quinnipiac

8 Old Dominion

9 UAB

Thursday (San Jose)

4 BYU

13 Rhode Island

5 Georgetown

12 St Mary's

Friday (Jacksonville)

6 Texas A&M

11 Florida

3 Ohio St

14 Coastal Carolina

Thursday (Providence)

7 Richmond

10 Georgia Tech

2 Villanova

15 Stony Brook

(Every lower seed would pray to be in the bracket with No. 1 Duke. Old Dominion and UAB would feel like they won a lottery if the winner faces them in round two).

West Region (Salt Lake City)

Buffalo (Friday)

1 Syracuse

16 Lehigh

8 Florida St

9 California

New Orleans (Thursday)

4 Tennessee

13 Sam Houston St

5 Texas

12 San Diego St

San Jose (Thursday)

6 Gonzaga

11 Louisville

3 New Mexico

14 Weber St

Oklahoma City (Thursday)

7 Xavier

10 Utah St

2 Kansas St

15 Wofford

(It amazingly worked out to have a lot of West Coast teams in the West. Never works that way. Syracuse would have a lot of talented teams to go through here.)