Big Ten Expansion: Texas and Notre Dame Only Real Choices

Boca Raton—On the day Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany told ESPN's Colin Cowherd that nothing will be determined about a possible expansion for three or four months, it becomes increasingly clear that Texas and Notre Dame are the only schools that make sense.

Adam Rittenberg, ESPN's Big Ten beat writer, reported that Wisconsin Athletic Director Barry Alvarez told him that the Big Ten hired a search firm to explore expansion. 

This is about as much as anyone really knows about the subject—this and Rittenberg reporting Alvarez telling him, "Notre Dame isn't interested in joining a league."

How the Expansion Game Works

College football writers, broadcasters, and fans have been speculating as to what team—or teams—will be the best fit to become the newest additions to the Big Ten—if it decides to expand.

The last time the Big Ten expanded was in 1990, when independent Penn State joined the conference.  With the addition of Penn State, the Big Ten added its 11th member.

The latest plan to look into further expansion seemed to pick up momentum when Penn State's Joe Paterno expressed concern about Big Ten BCS bowl teams not being properly prepared for games. 

Paterno insisted that without a conference championship game, the Big Ten had five to six weeks before its BCS bowl-bound teams played their bowl games.  He claimed that conferences like the SEC and Big 12 were better prepared for their BCS bowl games because they played a conference championship game only three weeks prior.

Iowa football Head Coach Kirk Ferentz was one of a couple of other Big Ten coaches who agreed with Paterno and spoke outwardly about expanding to 12 teams—which would allow the conference to meet NCAA requirements and stage its own conference championship game.

Although such a plan seems like a logical fix for what was interpreted as a poor BCS performance, the fact of the matter is, the season could easily be extended by giving teams bye weeks and playing into December.

Expansion for this reason seemed to be somewhat of a rash reaction to some poor BCS championship performances by Ohio State—which lost to Florida in 2006 and LSU in 2007—and a recent history of poor performances in bowl games by most Big Ten teams. 

This theory seemed to be proved inconclusive in the 2009-10 bowl season, when the Big Ten finished with a winning bowl record—its first since 2002.

Unless the Big Ten is confident a conference championship game can be a huge ratings success, let's just say that expansion to 12 teams for the sake of a conference championship game is not necessarily a good reason to expand.

As far as acceptable ratings for such a game being a no-brainer, all one has to do is look at the ACC and the poor attendance and ratings its conference championship games have garnered.

So what's the reason for the Big Ten to expand—to seek an extra team, or three or five more teams?

We've heard the reasons.  We've heard reasons presented with consideration of geographical desirability, and we've heard reasons presented with consideration of the success of a school's football and basketball programs.

As practical as these reasons may seem, the bottom line that dictates who is a candidate for Big Ten expansion is all about how many television sets a team currently or potentially can turn on.

Why Texas and Notre Dame?

Texas and Notre Dame are the two best candidates for expansion because both schools will bring with them lots of viewers.  Texas is in a huge state with a huge following—and we all know about the "State of Notre Dame" and the national following it represents.

Rutgers has developed a respectable football program, Pitt has a football program with a rich tradition and excellent basketball, and Missouri is certainly competitive.  These three schools could compete at a high level with Big Ten schools, and each is either within Big Ten boundaries or bordering on them.

There's only one problem: They just don't turn on enough televisions to become an asset for the Big Ten. 

We've heard the arguments about Rutgers and the New York City market, but at this time, it's pretty much just a wishful thought.  Pitt won't add much more than Penn State has already, and Missouri, with a population of somewhere around six million, is a possibility—but not a guarantee to bring along enough viewers.

Nobody is sneezing at Missouri's six million residents—or Rutgers' potential popularity in the country's largest market—but what should scare the Big Ten is the thought of splitting the pie in 12, 14, or 16 pieces and possibly losing revenue for current members.

Big Ten Expansion Unnecessary at This Time

Although the Big Ten has said it is in the midst of a fact-finding mission on expansion, there is no reason to believe that expansion is a given conclusion.

There is no reason for the Big Ten to expand at this time because it is the wealthiest of all conferences—and its members make more in revenue than the schools in every other conference.  There is no reason to believe that this will change, regardless of what any conferences does in the future.

CBS Sports, in an article entitled Money Remains Major Issue as Big Ten Mulls Over Expansion, just reported that the Big Ten pays each of its members $22 million a year.  The SEC is the second-most prosperous conference—and "according to tax documents" from 2007, each school receives $11 million.

The SEC puts more fans in its stadiums than the Big Ten—and it plays better football.  Its schools just don't turn on nearly as many television sets.

SEC fans, on a per capita basis, are much more loyal than Big Ten fans—but there just aren't enough of them.  It has been estimated that 25 percent of all the nation's households are within the geographic region covered by the Big Ten.

This huge amount of exposure the Big Ten enjoys has made the Big Ten Network available to 73 million homes.

Big Ten Expansion and the Big East

Simply put, it would be overwhelmingly difficult for any Big East school to turn down an invitation to join the Big Ten.  Unless the Big Ten places some kind of entry fee on new members, like Barry Alvarez has suggested, the financial benefit to any Big East team asked to join would be astronomical.

While CBS reports a $22 million payoff to each member of the Big Ten, the network estimates each Big East team receives something in the area of $5 million.

The Big East has shown real growth—and because of the large markets its schools represent, it can potentially grow further.  With its of lack of tradition, its newness, and not being firmly entrenched in these markets, the conference lags behind in revenue.

As the Big East talks of expansion of its own—primarly to add a ninth football team that will make scheduling easier for everyone—the choices for such expansion are just not out there.

While the Big Ten looks for a Texas or Notre Dame—schools that will bring huge viewership with them—the Big East chooses schools in relatively large markets and builds them up over time, hoping they will pay off.

Connecticut and South Florida didn't have Division 1 football teams 10 years ago.  They were selected to join the Big East because of the potential growth their marketing areas represented.

UMass Clearly the Best Choice for Big East Expansion

While East Carolina, Memphis, and even TCU have been considered as possible additions to the Big East, it's clear that UMass—although they do not compete in the FBS, but rather the FCS—would make the best choice for Big East expansion.

UMass potentially brings with them viewers in the state of Massachusetts and those of greater Boston, which includes parts of four other states.

What Will the Big Ten Do Now?

As Delany has indicated, it will be three to four months before we have an idea what the next step will be. He qualifies his statement by adding "if any" when referring to such a next step.

Delany has been listening to coaches who are proponents of a championship game—for reasons already explained.  And he has been listening to athletic directors concerned about having to share revenues with one, three, or possibly five extra teams.

Delany also knows that any expansion—even adding just one team—will likely cause a ripple effect and an ensuing scramble by conferences to replace members.  He is aware of what happened five years ago when the ACC expanded from nine teams to 12.

Once an expansion is complete, if it doesn't include that team in South Bend, it makes it more unlikely that it ever will.  This will be on the minds of Delany and other Big Ten executives.

Will the Big Ten feel pressure to act before other conferences act and form "super conferences?"  This is another issue that has to be explored.

It becomes apparent that there is no way to predict what the Big Ten will do in this calendar year. 

If expansion is the way to go, two things seem likely: Expansion will be driven by the almighty dollar, and Texas and Notre Dame would make the best choices.