It's a quarterback-driven league. It always has been.
To figure out who will win Super Bowl XLIV, you need look no further than the two men who will lead their teams onto the field Sunday.
They're a couple of great ones. Certainly, they are two of the most prolific passers to face off in the big game. It should be entertaining if nothing else.
So, who's going to win? That seems to be the question on everyone's mind.
There are a lot of different angles. Which offense is more balanced? Whose defense will hold up better? Will previous Super Bowl experience help the Colts? So many questions.
I tried to search for a simpler answer. After a little bit of research, here is what I came up with.
I figured out scientifically, without any prejudice, who's going to win the ball game. The Colts are going to win, and I'll tell you why.
The quarterbacks were my main focus, and they should be. I looked at three statistical categories: pass efficiency rating, passing yards, and touchdown passes.
In the first 43 Super Bowls, the quarterback who had compiled the lower regular season passer rating had a 23-20 advantage in the Super Bowl.
Through the first 43 Super Bowl games, the quarterback who threw for less yardage during the regular season was 30-13 in the Super Bowl. That's a pretty big advantage.
Peyton Manning threw for 4,500 yards this season compared to 4,388 yards for Drew Brees. Advantage: Brees.
Finally, the tiebreaker: In the history of the Super Bowl, the quarterback who threw for fewer touchdown passes had a 27-15 edge, with one game having both quarterbacks thrown for the same number of touchdowns. Another large margin in favor of fewer, not more.
Drew Brees threw 34 touchdown passes in 2009. Peyton Manning threw 33. Advantage: Manning
So, there you have it. Manning has a slight edge over Brees in this matchup. Look for the Colts to hoist the Lombardi trophy this Sunday night. Hey, the numbers don't lie.
Now if only doing my taxes was this easy. Enjoy the game.