Is It Time for Fans to Short-Sell the Indianapolis Colts?

The Indianapolis Colts are at the zenith of the football world for the next eight days, and if they beat the New Orleans Saints next Sunday, they will enter some rarified air as a team that has won the Lombardi Trophy twice in the last four seasons.  The teams who've done that are historic franchises—the Packers of Lombardi, the Steelers under Noll, the 49ers under Walsh, Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys, and Belichick's Patriots.

The Colts of the past decade won more regular season games that any team in NFL history, and have at quarterback a player who will very likely own every record for his position.  Peyton Manning will retire as the popular choice as the greatest QB ever to play football.  His combination of physical attributes, mental acumen, toughness, and the advantage of playing in one system behind consistently good offensive lines have help Manning reach a pinnacle of consistent excellence we have never witnessed.

Manning is 33-years old, and because of the few hits he has absorbed and his enormous appetite for preparation he might be able to stretch his career for another six seasons.  No one can know for sure when his body will start to show signs of aging.  At some point, the recovery from a Sunday blow won't even begin until Wednesday.  It might occur to him that football is a silly game and that as his youth begins to dwindle, precious time is better invested out of the film room.  There are a lot of variables that can remove the edge that allows comparative excellence to blossom, and any one of them might shade Manning toward the ordinary.

When that day comes, and it comes for all athletes, the level of success that the Colts have enjoyed for so long will also erode.  As #18 goes, so go the Colts.  When #18 really goes, God knows what will become of this team.  With every passing game, the window becomes tighter because there is an expiration date stamped on each athlete.  All football fans would love (except those rooting for AFC South opponents) to see Manning play forever and lead the Colts franchise to continued routine 12-4 seasons, and periodic trips to the Super Bowl.  That isn't the way football works.

Once Dan Marino, Troy Aikman, and Steve Young retired, their franchises began the long trek down the slope to mediocrity and then irrelevance.  The quarterback being the most important player on the team works very well for the Colts because they have the best who's ever laced up a pair of cleats.  Once Manning's gifts decline, Colts fans will start to wish that the free safety or punter was the most important. 

The odds of the Colts quickly finding a suitable replacement for Manning are exceptionally long.  Johnny Unitas left the Colts after the 1972 season, they went through nine starters (QBs who led the team in passing during a season, not started individual games) before grabbing Manning in the first round of the 1998 NFL Draft.  They were Marty Domres, Bert Jones, Bill Troup, Greg Landry, Mike Pagel, Jack Trudeau, Chris Chandler, Jeff George, and Jim Harbaugh. 

I plan to enjoy every game, audible, throw, and single second that Manning has left in the tank because there are a helluva lot more Jay Cutlers in the NFL than Peyton Mannings.  The Chicago Bears really thought they did something good when they traded two first-round picks, a third-rounder, and Kyle Orton to get a franchise quarterback, (the Bears also got a fifth-round pick).  Jerry Angelo was pleased that the Bears would not have to worry about the QB spot for another few years.  Really?

That's how rare a guy like Manning is.  GMs will delude themselves into believing that a marginally good QB is a potential franchise guy, and deal the team's future for him.  Manning is that guy—the Holy Grail for GMs, the real deal, the face, culture, and arm of the franchise. 

How fortunate are the Colts fans to have a quarterback with talent and drive so unique that he has become the face, culture, and arm of the entire league.  If Manning plays another six years through 2015—until he's 39, Colts fans need to prepare for another long winter of mediocrity.  That preparation should begin next Sunday as you revel in every moment of excellence Manning delivers.

Enjoy the moment because this too shall pass.  Shorting the Colts will be the right move—in five years.  Until that day, enjoy the ride.