Where Has The Old NFL Gone?

All of us know the standard axiom for winning championships in the National Football League; play outstanding defense and run the ball. That is the proven, time-tested formula for success in the NFL. So, when did that formula stop making sense?

In looking at the last two rounds of the playoffs, there are some trends going on that I wanted to explore. The one constant that held up is that for five of the six losing playoff teams, (Vikings, Cardinals, Cowboys, Chargers, and Ravens), they all lost the turnover battle. The only loser that didn't have more turnovers, was the Jets, as New York and Indianapolis each turned it over once.

The two Super Bowl teams, Indianapolis and New Orleans, both gave up over 300 yards in passing on Sunday. Strong defense? I don't think so. How well did they run the ball? Indy gained 86 yards and New Orleans gained 68. Again, less than overwhelming.

It wasn't that the Saints had a great game moving the ball against the Vikings defense, as the offense only generated 257 yards. Granted, they were handed excellent field position due to the five Vikings turnovers, but the Saints defense has to be concerned after allowing 475 yards in offense to Minnesota.

Is There Any Significant Conclusion That Can Be Drawn From the Final Six Games?

Out of the 12 teams that played in the last two rounds, only three of them had significant games in running the ball. Those were the following:

New Orleans Saints ran for 171 yards against Arizona Cardinals.

New York Jets ran for 169 yards against San Diego Chargers.

Minnesota Vikings ran for 165 yards against New Orleans Saints.

The other rushing totals: 86, 101, 68, 101, 109, 92, 61, 42, and 87. The outlier of 42 was turned in by the Colts against Baltimore's stout run defense. That should be a concern for Colts fans.

The best teams make it to the playoffs, but it was surprising to see three of the four championship game defenses getting torched for over 300 yards in the air. Yet in the round of eight, the top two passing totals were only 283 yards and 258 yards, as none of the eight teams were able to crack 300 passing yards.

Maybe a little more conservative play-calling for the round of eight, and then pulling out all the stops for the championship games? It should be noted that playing conditions have been excellent, as every one of the final six games were played inside a dome stadium, with the exception of the Chargers vs. Jets game, and weather was not an issue in San Diego either.

What Kind of a Game Should We Expect Super Bowl XLIV to be?

If there is anything that we can expect from Super Bowl XLIV, is that the ball will be thrown often in Miami. I am not expecting a big rushing output from either team. Based on the past two games for both the Saints and the Colts, note that:

Saints were out-gained 218 yards by the Vikings, but the turnover machine that is the Saints defense forced five take-aways to win the game. New Orleans couldn't run the ball against Minnesota, but did with ease against the Cardinals. Brees only passed for 189 yards against Minnesota, but did better against Phoenix with 247 yards.

The unpredictable nature of the Saints offense may be one of the reasons why the Colts are the early Super Bowl favorite.

The Colts on the other hand, ran the ball for only 86 yards and 42 yards in their two playoff games. Not overly impressive. Manning did pass for 360 against the vaunted New York Jets pass defense, which was very impressive. The Ravens limited Manning to 233 yards in the air, so their game plan is one that New Orleans will study to see how they kept him in check.

The bottom line appears to be who can take better care of the ball. The Colts defense created only one turnover against the Jets, but had four against Baltimore. The Saints defense excels here with five against the Vikings and two against the Cardinals.

With the top two seeded teams advancing to the Super Bowl, each team knows how to win, even if they don't always apply the old time NFL standards for playing winning championship football. I will still be interested to tune in and see what each team does and how they choose to attack their opponents.

What do I think will happen? My prediction is that the Colts problems in the running game will play in to the New Orleans secondary ball hawks, and Darren Sharper in particular. The Saints pass defense will create some turnovers that will ultimately lead the Saints to an upset win. What do you think?