New York Jets: Will Gang Green Be Like the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers?

Both teams faced a crucial game against the Indianapolis Colts on the way to the Super Bowl. And neither team was highly seeded at the beginning. But both teams were better than their seedings seemed to indicate, even while the bookies put them at long odds. Hence the material for an upset.

That's because the conventional rankings don't tell the full story. The 2005 Steelers were seeded sixth in their league, and no other team with that seeding had gone on to win the Super Bowl.

But "sabermetrics" pegged the Steelers as third in the AFC at the end of 2004, in a statistical dead-heat for second with the Denver Broncos, and a clear underdog only to the Indianapolis Colts.

Meaning that once they beat the sabermetrically inferior Cincinnati Bengals in the first round, and the theoretically superior Colts in the second round, postseason momentum made them the favorites against the Broncos in the American League, and later the NFC-leading Seattle Seahawks.

Somewhat of the same story is told in the AFC four years later.

AFC 2010

Team        Won  Loss Pct  Rank  PF   PA  Pyth Pct. Sab Rank

Indy Colts   14     2   .875    1   416  307    .647         5

SD Chargers 13    3    .813   2   454   320   .657         4

NE Patriots   10    6    .625   3   427   288  .692          2

Cin Bengals   10    6    .625   4   305   291  .523          6

NY Jets          9    7    .563   5   348   236  .685          3

Balt Ravens     9    7    .563   6   391   261  .692          1

The "Pythagorean" percentage of points scored (PF) versus points allowed (PA), is the result of the formula

Percentage= ((PF)-squared)/(PF)-squared+(PA)-squared).

That is, based on the so-called Pythagorean percentage derived from "points for" versus "points allowed," the three strongest AFC teams were the third-ranked New England Patriots, the fifth-ranked New York Jets, and the sixth-ranked Baltimore Ravens, in a statistical dead heat around .690.

The first and second-ranked Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers actually had inferior Pythagorean percentages on either side of .650.

This metric correctly predicted the narrow Jets victory over the San Diego Chargers, and a similar result could be in the making against the Indianapolis Colts, even though they have home field advantage.

What's most troubling is the narrowness of the Jets' win against the Chargers. The Jets defense did what they could, holding the AFC's highest scoring offense to 14 points. But their offense was lousy.

In fact, it didn't get going (in terms of achieving first downs) until late in the second quarter. And the offense scored only 10 points against the Chargers, if you take out the interception that was run back into the Chargers' "red zone," meaning that the win was basically a DEFENSIVE victory.

The 2005 Steelers had a solid passing game under quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The question mark was their running game. But they had a secret weapon in running back Jerome "The Bus" Bettis, who was playing his last season.

The 2010 Jets' offensive profile is the reverse. Their running game is (mostly) fine. But they (specifically quarterback Mark Sanchez) will have to step up their passing game in order to win the Super Bowl.

Unlike the 2005 Steelers, the 2010 Jets will NOT be going "downhill" if they beat the Colts. Both the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings have Pythagorean percentages around .690, meaning that the Jets are no better than even money against either of them.

In this regard, the Jets may be most like the 2007 New York Giants. After their season-ending 38-35 loss to the New England Patriots, the Giants were not necessarily favorites to win the Super Bowl.

But their inferior earlier record notwithstanding, they were no worse than any other team, meaning that their chances, going into the divisional playoff round, were represented by three coin flips.

In fact, they won three "coin flip" (3-4 point) playoff games against the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and yes, the New England Patriots. Statistically, that was a 7-1 shot, meaning the much higher odds they were given represented a good bet.

I like the 13-2 odds on the New York Jets. Just about any random professional team has that much of a chance to "get lucky" for two games. But the Jets are "on par" with their opponents, not random, meaning their odds should be about "average," or 3-1.

Ditto for the Indianapolis Colts, which is to say they are overrated at 6-5 (to win both the AFC and the Super Bowl). That's more like their chances for the conference alone.