Why the New York Jets Should Beat the "Spread"

The New York Jets may or may not win the playoff game today. But they should not be considered underdogs. Which is to say that you should bet on them if there is ANY spread at all in their favor. Never mind seven points, or a whole touchdown. Because this match-up is basically "even money."

How can you say this, one might ask, when the Chargers are 13-3, while the Jets barely qualified for the playoffs with a 9-7 record? The reason is that something tells me that the Jets were "unlucky" for at least two games, and the Chargers were "lucky" for two games, meaning that both teams should be about 11-5. That would put them on a more or less equal footing.

That "something" is sabermetrics or BASEBALL science (yes, I'm mainly a baseball writer but couldn't resist the chance to use baseball metrics here).

The main conclusion is that "lucky" games were enough of a factor even in a 162-game season so that the win-loss percentage is not a conclusive measure of team's strength. How much more this would hold in a SIXTEEN game season.

So what is a better metric? Sabermetrics says the "Pythagorean" percentage of points scored (PS) versus points allowed (PA), in the formula

Percentage= ((PS)-squared)/(PS)-squared+(PA)-squared).

Plugging these numbers for the Jets of 348 and 236 gives you a percentage of .685. The equivalent numbers for the Chargers are 454 and 320, which yields .657, actually a lower percentage, despite the greater number of points scored, and point differential. But they both "reduce" to 11-5 (rounding in favor of the Chargers).

The Jets actually have a (slight) statistical advantage. But the Chargers' home field advantage, the result of "seeding," is worth something.  Let's say these cancel out and that the two teams are basically on a equal footing.

The offense of quarterback Mark Sanchez is only so-so. But the Jets' defense has been AWESOME. It has allowed the fewest points in all of professional football. That's a combination, average offense, superior defense that makes for a contender. The Chargers do have a superior offense.

But their defense is "leaky," meaning that the Jets should scare at least an "average" amount (over 20 points) against them. Whether or not they win depends on how well the "irresistible force" (Chargers' offense) is, in fact, resisted by the "immovable object" (Jets' defense), which has not given up more than 15 points in any game since the November 22nd loss to the New England Patriots.

But in any event, the Jets should beat the spread.