Holmgren, Shanahan, Gruden, Dungy, Cowher: Buyers Beware

As the NFL coaching carousel starts spinning, the list of currently unemployed coaches that have at least one Super Bowl ring has fans and media buzzing like never before.

We have seen two of these coaches, Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan, already find work.

The rest of the list includes Jon Gruden, Tony Dungy, and Bill Cowher. These coaches have been mentioned in rumors since before this season began.

While the bling of a Super Bowl ring has fans fawning, there are many reasons why fans should not see these coaches as “cure-all” solutions.

Past results are not predictors of future success. No coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. In fact, only five coaches have ever taken two different teams to a Super Bowl.

In recent history, Jimmy Johnson, George Seifert, and Mike Ditka failed to bring championships to their second stops. Bill Parcells left without winning a playoff game in Dallas. Joe Gibbs failed to bring the magic back to Washington.

The coach does have an impact on a team, but they are not the only cogs on the gear. Each one was a part of a bigger picture that worked together to win their title.

1. Coaches are not “one-size-fits-all”—which leads to my next point.

Each of the coaches listed has some quirk that must fit in order for them to be successful.

Many feel like Gruden won his title with Dungy’s team. As time passed, Gruden kept Dungy’s defense as intact as possible, but could never settle on a quarterback. Can Gruden build his own program?

Dungy was supposed to bring a defense to match the high-powered offense led by Peyton Manning. He could not seem to get the Bucs over the hump and never replicated his Tampa defense in Indianapolis. Can Dungy win without Peyton?

Bill Cowher helped continue the Steeler aura in the ‘90’s. A hard-nosed team that played great defense and could pound the football. However, Cowher took over a decade to win a championship, and few teams have that same type of mentality.

Even the coaches that have been hired have questions. How will Shanahan and Daniel Snyder mix? Shanahan was a coach/GM in Denver, and Snyder is a meddling owner. It’s only a matter of time before they begin to butt heads. And, can Shanahan win without Elway?

I think Holmgren may have found the best position, but with what may be the worst team. He was another coach/GM, and now he is in the GM seat. The trick for him will be to hire a coach that runs his system. Seeing as his coaching tree has a number of branches, one should be available; the question is whether he will hire them or not.

All of these questions are important considering the amount of money these coaches will each demand. However, there is one big question about all of these coaches: Why are they unemployed?

Some of these coaches chose to retire. If a coach has reached that point, a team has to wonder how long a comeback may last.

Some of these coaches were fired. That brings back the questions from above. Can a team spend that kind of money on a coach who another team felt comfortable with letting go?

These men are all good coaches, and nothing can take away their accomplishments in the NFL. However, with a number of good, younger, cheaper coaches available, and the recent success of these types of coaches, fans and teams should be careful in wishing for one of these future Hall of Fame coaches.