Blake Griffin's Injury Will Impact 2010 NBA Draft: Bad News For Bigs

Blake Griffin will undergo season-ending surgery, the L.A. Clippers announced Wednesday afternoon. The forward will spend the rest of the year on the mend in a sport coat, having played zero minutes in a rookie campaign that was supposed to save a moribund franchise.

Today, many Clippers fans will join a crowded bandwagon alongside supporters of the Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers, and Milwaukee Bucks.

Griffin now faces the same uphill battle as Yao Ming and Greg Oden. Andrew Bogut, who missed a large chunk of last season with a back injury, also knows the struggle.

These distraught fans will again ask a popular question. "Why can't these heralded big guys stay healthy?"

The implications of these season-terminating ailments reach beyond the affected franchises.

The list of players hurt most by the Clipper forward's disheartening knee woes will not include Griffin.

Cole Aldrich, Greg Monroe, Dexter Pittman, Craig Brackins, and Patrick Patterson could all be in for longer nights than expected when the 2010 NBA Draft invades Madison Square Garden's theater. More than ever, teams will be hesitant to use high draft picks on players 6'10" or taller.

If Oden could not stay on the court for half of his young career, if Yao seemed likely to not play at all this season, and if Bogut has showed all the durability of Scotch Tape holding together an 88-story skyscraper, why should franchises invest in more pain when it yields so little gain?

Aldrich, Monroe, and the others highlight a draft class stocked with would-be stellar forwards and a few promising centers. Outside of John Wall, the point guard prospects look sketchy, perhaps shuddersome.

A June night that could have belonged to bigs again may instead turn into another evening of smalls, both guards and forwards.

Aldrich, for example, has shown a lot of potential at Kansas, upping his average from three points and three rebounds in his first year to 15 points and 11 rebounds in his second. The NBA comparison, though, listed on NBADraft.net is concerning. Who wants to be the next Raef LaFrentz?

A likeness to Brooz Lopez qualifies as flattering, though the Nets forward—averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds—does his work on a squad that could obliterate the NBA's worst ever regular season mark.

Griffin busted his kneecap in the preseason. Before that setback, he had displayed a skillset and a determination worthy of a first selection.

The same qualities coaches saw in the forward at Oklahoma manifested in L.A.

He played a brilliant Summer League, winning the tournament's MVP honor. Even if the Vegas showcase amounts to a series of scrimmages where the final outcome is meaningless, Griffin's performances meant something.

Now, a Clippers franchise mired in a perpetual funk must continue its playoff push without last summer's biggest haul.

Larger than the Richard Jefferson trade, the Lakers' Ron Artest coup, the Celtics landing Rasheed Wallace, and the Cavs' trade for Shaquille O'Neal, Griffin's arrival was to give new life to the Staples Center's other tenants.

What now?

Take a Pass? Dejuan Blair Becomes More Than an Exception

Passing on a forward or center with impact potential can prove costly. Just ask any team that picked before the San Antonio Spurs last June.

Dejuan Blair, the 37th selection in the 2009 draft, became the first rookie since Tim Duncan to notch a 20-20 game. His hustle and interior bravery helped the Spurs beat the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday in Duncan's absence.

Popovich opted to rest his franchise star a night after Duncan played 39 minutes in a home drubbing of the L.A. Lakers.

In the first seven minutes of the first quarter in OKC, Blair poured in 10 points and grabbed six rebounds. He took advantage of the Thunder's lackluster bulk up front with putbacks in traffic, offensive rebounds to give the Spurs extra possession after extra possession, and several dunks in pick-and-roll situations.

Most have called Blair the undisputed steal of the draft. ESPN True Hoop 's Kevin Arnovitz called the Spurs "robber barons."

It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that other teams just missed what was in front of them. The Spurs were lucky he fell to the second round, and other teams should heed the lesson from this the next time this situation arises.

Medical examinations just before the draft revealed the Pitt product had no anterior cruciate ligaments. That discovery likely prompted team doctors to flag Blair as a prospect not worth the risk.

At the time, it was hard to fault those skeptical physicians.

No ACLs? I cannot remember another NBA player with Blair's rare condition.

Now, the mass concern about the 6'6" forward's durability and size issues looks foolhearted.

If the New York Knicks could do that night over again, would they take Jordan Hill over Blair?

Would anyone who drafted a big outside of Blake Griffin still do the same and pass on a player with a history of responding to doubt?

Giving first-round money to a player with so many questions to answer was a risk—one more GMs should have considered taking.

The NBA is a risk-reward business. By the time Blair fell to 37, right in Spurs GM R.C. Buford's lap, he was all reward, no risk.

Why the Clippers, Blazers, Rockets, Bucks Made the Right Choices

Hindsight is convenient for those of us not in a war room on draft night.

It is useless now for the front offices in L.A., Portland, Houston, and Milwaukee. Criticize the selections of Griffin, Oden, Yao, and Bogut if you want, but remember the following.

No team in the last decade won a championship without a dominant back-to-the basket player, the exception perhaps being Detroit. Even in that case, the Pistons reached consecutive NBA Finals because Rasheed Wallace was a persistent post player in addition to a long-range bomber.

It is no coincidence that the Pistons' title chances faded as Wallace's forays inside lessened each year.

Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan won seven of the decade's first nine championships.

The Boston Celtics won with a bruising frontline of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. Garnett may be more of a jumpshooter than his peers mentioned above, but he still makes a living hauling down boards at the room.

The L.A. Lakers returned to the NBA's mountaintop thanks to the acquisition of Pau Gasol, a skilled post player with length and remarkable playmaking ability.

Andrew Bynum, another post force who worked for several years with Laker great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, represents L.A's future star.

Dwyane Wade led the Miami Heat's 2006 championship charge, but O'Neal still played effective, muscular ball. The leviathan center had been in the MVP discussion the previous year.

More teams will shy away from big men with size because of injury concerns, preferring to build around hybrid forwards and 6'10" leapers with a jumpshot.

Though Griffin qualifies as the latter and is not yet a post behemoth in the Duncan mold, you can bet Mike Dunleavy wanted him to become more like No. 21.

Even the best jumpshooting forward of this generation, Dirk Nowitzki, needed to add an inside game to realize his potential. Former Dallas Mavericks coach Avery Johnson demanded that Nowitzki bolster his arsenal with some Duncan-like moves.

In 2006, Nowitzki's Mavs ousted Duncan's then defending champion Spurs.

Most of the teams that came up short in 2000s championship series did so because their bigs were not dominant enough.

Dwight Howard too often disappeared on the offensive end in the 2009 Finals. Nowitzki appeared afraid to attack O'Neal in the paint and settled for contested fadeaways and other assorted jumpers.

Some teams will pass on youngsters like Aldrich to their detriment.

I can count with my fingers the number of squads built around or that utilize a back-to-the-basket big. I can also count with my fingers the number of squads with a chance to hoist the Larry O' Brien trophy in June.

There is a correlation, and it explains why Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard selected Oden when most already knew Kevin Durant would be the better player.

A franchise with a chance to take the next Duncan or O'Neal cannot be faulted for doing so when things go awry.

Durant may earn an All-Star berth this year and lead his team to the postseason, but the Thunder need more inside scoring to become a title threat.

They need an inside player. You know, like Oden.

The risk is that a team wastes a pick on the next Sam Bowie. You may think Pritchard wasted a golden opportunity, but Portland made the right choice given the information at hand.

As did Houston, Milwaukee, and the other L.A. team.

The only first pick to win a title in his first two seasons in 20 years is Duncan, and that matters.

Most of the top-shelf selections since, though, have proven to be injury-prone disappointments, and that also matters.

To Aldrich, Monroe, and any other tall college standout with big plans in June.