Colts Look To End One-and-Done Trend

With their dismantling of the once-dominant New England Patriots, and a history of early playoff struggles for the Indianapolis Colts, the Baltimore Ravens appear to be the sexy pick heading into this weekend's divisional round matchups.

The Ravens are coming off a impressive 33-14 victory in Foxboro, their first win in eight contests against the Pats. Ray Rice picked up right where he left off in the regular season, gashing the shaky Patriot defense for 159 yards on 22 carries, including two scores.

The dominance displayed by Baltimore will surely influence analysts and experts picks on Saturday's game and expect many of them to lean in the Ravens favor. However, the Colts do own the leagues best record (14-2) and scraped out a 17-15 victory over the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 11.

Here are the keys to victory for each team:

Ravens

For the Ravens to emerge victorious in Indianapolis, they will need to  the exact formula they used against New England. That formulas is run the ball, control the clock, and put pressure on Peyton Manning.

Rice has been an issue for teams all season whether it be on the ground or through the air. The Colts somewhat contained him in their first matchup, limiting him to 71 yards rushing and 64 yards through the air while keeping him out of the end zone.

It's hard to say that Rice needs to be more productive than 135 total yards from scrimmage, but for the Ravens to win he'll need to be near that total and to get in the end zone at least once.The Ravens will have to run, run, and run some more to keep the ball out of Manning's hands.

Joe Flacco started the season hot but has become more of the game-managing type of quarterback he was during his rookie year.

Flacco played well in the regular season matchup, completing 23-35 passes and amassing 256 yards, but his lone interception on the games final drive proved fatal to Baltimore. If the game is going according to the Ravens plan, the ball won't be in Flacco's hands to win the game.

But the Colts have been solid against the run this season, so Flacco will certainly have to perform better than Sunday's four completions for 34 yards and an interception.

The Ravens running attack is essential to their success, but the reason they handled the Patriots last weekend was due to the pressure applied on Tom Brady. The rush frustrated Brady into three first quarter turnovers (2 INT, 1 fumble) and resulted in 17 Baltimore points. Brady never got into a rhythm and the defense had its way all afternoon.

That's the same way you beat the Colts. Put pressure on Peyton. Frustrate him, make him force throws, knock him around and you beat the Colts. But Manning's sturdy offensive line has given up the league's fewest sacks and the four-time MVP's quick release makes him awfully difficult to hit.

Colts

The Colts knack for early exits in the playoffs has many questioning whether the No.1 seeded team in the AFC can handle a hot Baltimore team.

They're coming off two consecutive losses in which many of their starters rested and a bye week. So it's been nearly a month since Indianapolis has played a meaningful game with it's entire cast which will more than likely lead to early rust.

Indy, however, has proven it can't handle early rustiness because everyone saw how the Ravens capitalized on New England's early struggles. For the Colts to move on to the AFC Championship they will have to contain Rice, make Flacco win the game with his arm, and take advantage of the holes underneath in Baltimore's pass coverage.

The Colts have done a solid job of containing star running backs this season but often struggle with smaller running backs. Jaguars running back Maurice Jones Drew (5'7) consistently runs all over the Colts while all Indy fans horridly remember Darren Sproles (5'6) shredding them for 328 total yards.

Rice is very similar to both these backs and poses a great threat. The Colts will need to limit his production if they are to come out with a win.

As mentioned, Flacco has become the game-managing type of quarterback for the Ravens. He hasn't been slinging the ball all over the field as he did early in the season and has leaned on the legs of his rushing attack to propel an otherwise inept offense the second-half of the season.

If the Colts can shut down Rice, force the Ravens into third-and-long situations and make Flacco try and beat them, they will be successful.

While they are banged up in the secondary, their speed and awareness has caused opposing quarterbacks trouble. That should be the case with Flacco here.

Manning and the offense has a terrible habit of being out of sync early in the playoffs. This is a trend that has to be bucked for Indianapolis to win Saturday. The Ravens have the uncanny ability to apply great pressure with just three to four defenders rushing the quarterback.

However, they do send Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs flying in on blitzes often, and that's where Manning will have to exploit the holes in the middle of the field. Brady saw plenty of holes for receivers last Sunday but the Ravens pressure was so fierce that he rarely capitalized on those opportunities. Manning has a deeper receiving core than Brady, and a better offensive line, and that should result in more success for the Colts.

Ultimately, the Colts prevail 24-20. Manning will have his offense in sync, the defense will play well enough to contain Rice and Flacco will make costly mistakes.

The sexy pick is the Ravens and the Colts do have a reputation for one-and-dones, but the balls have bounced Indainapolis' way all year and the trend will continue Saturday.