NFL Wildcard Weekend: Trend Stays Alive

The current NFL playoff system has always given a much more balanced first round than most leagues.  In a system where the third and fourth overall seeds are the "top" of the round, results aren’t nearly as home-team favored as one would think.

This year, a trend stayed alive across wildcard weekend.  For three consecutive years now, the first round has been evenly matched between wildcard and divisional teams quite literally.  Since the playoffs of the 2007 regular season, the NFL’s first round has seen six wins apiece go to the divisional and wildcard teams, with splits in each year.

A potential adjunct to this trend, while the 2006 season saw an uncharacteristic three wins by home teams in the first round, 2005 saw another pair of road successes.  Add that in and the tally is four of the past five years, with an even divide.

In the 2007 season’s playoffs, a 2-2 split was cut across both conferences.  Each No. 5 seed (Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants) defeated their division-winning fourth seed opponent (Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers) to drive into the second round.

2008 remained a conference split, this time with both sixth place seeds earning additional playoff life.  Interestingly enough, both of those winning wildcards found themselves in similar positions this past season, with mixed results.

The Baltimore Ravens repeated last year’s performance as a sixth seed looking to advance by dominating the New England Patriots with a 24-0 first quarter lead en route to a 33-14 victory.  The Philadelphia Eagles, the other winning sixth seed last season, did not fare as well.  They were on the losing end of a near-mirrored score, losing to the Dallas Cowboys 34-14.

This year, however, it was not an across-conference split.  Both wildcard victories emerged from a closely packed AFC, where six teams finished the year 9-7 or 10-6.  Baltimore’s wildcard repeat was paired with a New York Jets victory over the struggling Cincinnati Bengals.

Last to play, representing the NFC, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals rounded out the three-year trend.  The overtime Cardinals victory gave the NFC division leaders a sweep over their respective wildcards. 

Should other aspects of this stretch continue true to form, then one of the two wildcard teams will emerge victorious in the second round.  The last two years, the wildcard entries into the second round also provided splits, each taking a win and a loss both years.

In the 2007 playoffs, the New York Giants defeated the now victorious Dallas Cowboys in the divisional playoff round.  That season eventually ended with New York hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy, leaving a stunned 18-1 Patriots team in their wake.

Baltimore, the divisional round victor in the 2008 playoffs, did not stretch their success quite that far.  After downing Tennessee in the second round, they fell to division-mate Pittsburgh in the conference championship, watching the Steelers continue on to winning the Super Bowl.

Will it be the New York Jets, utilizing the league’s best defense to upset the red-hot San Diego Chargers and end their 11-game winning streak?  Will the Baltimore Ravens pound Peyton Manning as they did Tom Brady to earn their second consecutive conference championship bid after entering the playoffs sixth seeded?  Or is this the year that only one-half of the current streak remains the same?

The 2-2 split was already attained. Can the top seeds, with their combined 27-4 to 18-14 record advantage, translate their regular season success into a year where, for the first time since the 2004 season playoffs, both the No. 1 and No. 2 AFC seed meet in the conference championship?