With the loss of Wes Welker and with a defense that struggles to defend the pass, this year’s Pats are viewed as more vulnerable than past editions. That may well be true- but not in this particular first round matchup. Joe Flacco has regressed late in the season and his notably weak receiving corps isn't helping matters. As such, the Ravens are hardly equipped to exploit the soft spots in the Pats defense. For all of their struggles against the pass, the Pats handle the run well enough to slow down Ray Rice and Willis McGahee.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has their own problems in the secondary, which doesn’t bode well against Tom Brady. Ray Lews and company are always tough, and Ed Reed- if healthy- is always capable of the big play, but lets face it, this year's Ravens D is a far cry from the dominant groups of their past. The Pats will surely miss Welker, but lets not forget that Fred Taylor, an excellent receiver out of the backfield, is now healthy. Taylor should help to fill Welker’s role as a blitz-busting dump off option capable of generating yards after the catch.

The fraudulent team here is not New England, but the Ravens. Baltimore went 2-7 against winning teams this year, by far the worst among playoff teams. Of their nine wins six came against the likes of Kansas City, Cleveland (twice), Detroit, Chicago, and Oakland. The Patriots may be flawed, but they are the better team here. And they’re at home, where they’re 8-0 this season and 8-0 in the playoffs in the Brady era.

Look for New England's defensive line, with Wilfork and Warren healthy, to disrupt the Raven runners early. As the Pats move out to an early lead with a good mix of run and pass the Baltimore running game will be neutralized completely. Under such conditions, Flacco and his struggling receivers won't have what it takes to generate the type of fourth quarter comebacks that the New England has been prone to. Pats win this one decisively.  

-ROCKBOXSPORTS.COM